Originally published in 1979. This study focuses primarily on the development of a structural model for the U. S. Government securities market, ie. the specification and estimation of the demands for disaggregated maturity classes of U.S. Government securities by the individual investor groups participating in the market. A particularly important issue addressed involves the extent of the substitution relationship among different maturity classes of U.S. Government securities.

First Published in 2000. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Originally published in 1976 and with second edition published in 1984. This book established itself as the first genuinely introductory text on econometric methods, assuming no formal background on the part of the reader. The second edition maintains this distinctive feature. Fundamental concepts are carefully explained and, where possible, techniques are developed by verbal reasoning rather than formal proof. It provides all the material for a basic course. and is also ideal for a student working alone. Very little knowledge of maths and statistics is assumed, and the logic of statistical method is carefully stated. There are numerous exercises, designed to help the student assess individual progress. Methods are described with computer solutions in mind and the author shows how a variety of different calculations can be performed with relatively simple programs. This new edition also includes much new material - statistical tables are now included and their use carefully explained.

Originally published in 1984. This book addresses the economics of the changing mineral industry, which is highly affected by energy economics. The study estimates, in quantitative terms, the short- to mid-term consequences of rising energy prices alongside falling ore quality for the copper and aluminum industries. The effects of changing cost factors on substitution between metals is assessed as is the potential for relying on increased recycling. Copper and aluminum industry problems should be representative of those faced by the mineral processing sector as a whole. Two complex econometric models presented here produce forecasts for the industries and the book discusses and reviews other econometric commodity models.

This title, first published in 1984, considers a temporary monetary equilibrium theory under certainty in a differentiable framework. Using the techniques of differential topology the author investigates the structure of the set of temporary monetary equilibria. Temporary Monetary Equilibrium Theory: A Differentiable Approach will be of interest to students of monetary economics.

This book makes indicators more accessible, in terms of what they are, who created them and how they are used. It examines the subjectivity and human frailty behind these quintessentially 'hard' and technical measures of the world. To achieve this goal, The Rise and Rise of Indicators presents the world in terms of a selected set of indicators. The emphasis is upon the origins of the indicators and the motivation behind their creation and evolution. The ideas and assumptions behind the indicators are made transparent to demonstrate how changes to them can dramatically alter the ranking of countries that emerge. They are, after all, human constructs and thus embody human biases. The book concludes by examining the future of indicators and the author sets out some possible trajectories, including the growing emphasis on indicators as important tools in the Sustainable Development Goals that have been set for the world up until 2030. This is a valuable resource for undergraduate and postgraduate students in the areas of economics, sociology, geography, environmental studies, development studies, area studies, business studies, politics and international relations.

This study, first published in 1994, is intended to deepen the readers understanding of the phenomenon of equilibrium credit rationing in two areas. The first area concerns the form that equilibrium credit rationing assumes and its importance in determining the behaviour of interest rates. The second concerns the role of equilibrium credit rationing in transmitting monetary shocks to the real sector. This title will be of interest to students of monetary economics.

This book brings together cutting edge contributions in the fields of international economics, micro theory, welfare economics and econometrics, with contributions from Donald R. Davis, Avinash K. Dixit, Tadashi Inoue, Ronald W. Jones, Dale W. Jorgenson, K. Rao Kadiyala, Murray C. Kemp, Kenneth M. Kletzer, Anne O. Krueger, Mukul Majumdar, Daniel McFadden, Lionel McKenzie, James R. Melvin, James C. Moore, Takashi Negishi, Yoshihiko Otani, Raymond Riezman, Paul A. Samuelson, Joaquim Silvestre and Marie Thursby.

This is a book macroeconomists were waiting for - a lucid history of macroeconometric model building. A must read.' - Willi Semmler, New School for Social Research, US'The authors have succeeded in orchestrating a lively debate over the scientific foundations of structural econometrics. Their book deserves a broad readership.' - From the foreword by Lawrence R. Klein 'The wide range of issues brilliantly discussed, the entertaining and accessible language, the sharpness of the authors' judgement and the constructive critical mood makes this book recommended reading for anyone who feels uneasy with the empirical scope and policy significance of standard econometric methods and of mainstream economic models.' - Alessandro Vercelli, University of Siena, Italy This challenging and original book takes a fresh, innovative look at econometrics, and re-examines the scientific standing of structural econometrics as developed by the founders (Frisch and Tinbergen) and extended by Haavelmo and the Cowles modellers (particularly Klein) during the period 1930-1960. The authors begin by rethinking the scientific foundations of structural econometrics, offering a way around the problem of induction that also justifies the assumption of a data generating mechanism', and of ways to model this. They go on to explain how current critiques of the methodological foundations of structural econometrics are direct consequences of implicitly accepted but seriously flawed elements in neoclassical thinking. In the final part they present their distinctive methodological contribution: a blend of fieldwork and conceptual analysis designed to ensure that their models are well grounded in reality, and at the same time, conceptually coherent as well as statistically adequate. In so doing, they outline a number of elements that will be needed to develop a 'good' macroeconometric model of an advanced economy. Rational Econometric Man will prove a stimulating and thought-provoking read for scholars and researchers in the field of economics, and, more specifically, heterodox economics. Contents: Foreword by Lawrence R. Klein Introduction Part I: From Rational Economic Man to Rational Econometric Man 1. Re-reading Hollis and Nell 2. Haavelmo Reconsidered as Rational Econometric Man 3. Induction and the Empiricist Account of General Laws 4. Variables, Laws and Induction I: Are There Laws of Nature? 5. Variables, Laws and Induction II: Scientific Variables and Scientific Laws in Economics 6. The Concept of the 'Model' and the Methodology of Model Building Part II: The Critiques and the Foundations 7. Debating the Foundations: A New Perspective? 8. Scientific Issues in Structural Econometrics 9. Haavelmo and Beyond: Probability, Uncertainty, Specification and Stochasticism Part III: Structural Econometrics in its Place: Mapping New Directions 10. Conceptual Analysis, Fieldwork and the Methodology of Model Building 11. Working with Open Models: Lawlike Relations and an Uncertain Future Conclusion References Index

Portfolio theory and much of asset pricing, as well as many empirical applications, depend on the use of multivariate probability distributions to describe asset returns. Traditionally, this has meant the multivariate normal (or Gaussian) distribution. More recently, theoretical and empirical work in financial economics has employed the multivariate Student (and other) distributions which are members of the elliptically symmetric class. There is also a growing body of work which is based on skew-elliptical distributions. These probability models all exhibit the property that the marginal distributions differ only by location and scale parameters or are restrictive in other respects. Very often, such models are not supported by the empirical evidence that the marginal distributions of asset returns can differ markedly. Copula theory is a branch of statistics which provides powerful methods to overcome these shortcomings. This book provides a synthesis of the latest research in the area of copulae as applied to finance and related subjects such as insurance. Multivariate non-Gaussian dependence is a fact of life for many problems in financial econometrics. This book describes the state of the art in tools required to deal with these observed features of financial data. This book was originally published as a special issue of the European Journal of Finance.

Meghnad Desai's work presents a significant challenge to economics as currently practised. Poverty, Famine and Economic Development brings together essays which reflect his long-standing interest in economic development. Issues discussed include econometric testing of the disguised unemployment hypothesis, theoretical and applied approaches to famine, poverty in rich as well as poor countries, poverty in Latin America and state involvement in economic development. The volume also includes a discussion of the essay by Lenin which was the basis of the 'New Economic Policy', the first attempt at Market Socialism in the Soviet Union. The volume also includes a substantial autobiographical preface, in which Lord Desai explains how he became an economist and the influences behind the development of his thought, as well as a specific introduction explaining how he came to produce the papers included in this volume.

Turbulence in Economics presents the economy as an evolutionary process, economics as a realistic science and reintroduces history as fundamental to understanding economic processes. It examines cycles and fluctuations in economic history from the point of view of turbulence in the physical sciences, (specifically hydrodynamics), and argues that an evolutionary approach is required for a better understanding of historical economic processes. Economic time is marked by a succession of long periods of economic expansion and depression, separated by deep structural changes. These periods represent distinct forms of organization of social relations, science and technology, cultural trends and political and social institutions. This is accepted by historians but rejected in orthodox economics. In this book the author challenges this and argues that the divorce between economics and history limits the ability of economics to explain reality. Within this inquiry into the crisis of orthodox economics the author considers Keynes's, Mitchell's and Schumpeter's critiques of neoclassical economics. The author then compares these to the contributions of Frisch and Wicksell, and examines recent studies of chaos, nonlinear and complex dynamics to explain the historical development of modern economics. This book will be welcomed by economic historians, historians of economic thought, institutional and evolutionary economists and those interested in chaos, complexity and modern methodology.

In this book Christian Gourieroux and Alain Monfort provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of modern time series econometrics. They have succeeded in synthesising in an organised and integrated way a broad and diverse literature. While the book does not assume a deep knowledge of economics, one of its most attractive features is the close attention it pays to economic models and phenomena throughout. The coverage represents a major reference tool for graduate students, researchers and applied economists. The book is divided into four sections. Section one gives a detailed treatment of classical seasonal adjustment or smoothing methods. Section two provides a thorough coverage of various mathematical tools. Section three is the heart of the book, and is devoted to a range of important topics including causality, exogeneity shocks, multipliers, cointegration and fractionally integrated models. The final section describes the main contribution of filtering and smoothing theory to time series econometric problems.

The rich, multi-faceted and multi-disciplinary field of matching-based market design is an active and important one due to its highly successful applications with economic and sociological impact. Its home is economics, but with intimate connections to algorithm design and operations research. With chapters contributed by over fifty top researchers from all three disciplines, this volume is unique in its breadth and depth, while still being a cohesive and unified picture of the field, suitable for the uninitiated as well as the expert. It explains the dominant ideas from computer science and economics underlying the most important results on market design and introduces the main algorithmic questions and combinatorial structures. Methodologies and applications from both the pre-Internet and post-Internet eras are covered in detail. Key chapters discuss the basic notions of efficiency, fairness and incentives, and the way market design seeks solutions guided by normative criteria borrowed from social choice theory.

Many economic and social surveys are designed as panel studies, which provide important data for describing social changes and testing causal relations between social phenomena. This textbook shows how to manage, describe, and model these kinds of data. It presents models for continuous and categorical dependent variables, focusing either on the level of these variables at different points in time or on their change over time. It covers fixed and random effects models, models for change scores and event history models. All statistical methods are explained in an application-centered style using research examples from scholarly journals, which can be replicated by the reader through data provided on the accompanying website. As all models are compared to each other, it provides valuable assistance with choosing the right model in applied research. The textbook is directed at master and doctoral students as well as applied researchers in the social sciences, psychology, business administration and economics. Readers should be familiar with linear regression and have a good understanding of ordinary least squares estimation.

The object of this work, first published in 1977, is to examine the history of the economic and monetary union (EMU) in the European Community, the policies of the parties involved and the conflicts of interest created in the political and economic environment within which all this has taken place. This title will be of interest to students of monetary economics and finance.

"Mathematics in Economics" is a valuable guide to the mathematical apparatus that underlies so much of modern economics. The approach to mathematics is rigorous and the mathematical techniques are always presented in the context of the economics problem they are used to solve. Students can therefore gain insight into, and familiarity with, the mathematical models and methods involved in the transition from "phenomenon" to quantitative statement.

Topics covered include: Sets and NumbersMatrices and VectorsModelling Consumer ChoiceDiscrete VariablesFunctionsEquilibriumEigenvalues and EigenvectorsLimits and their UsesContinuity and Its UsesPartial DifferentiationThe GradientTaylor's Theorem - An Approximation ToolEconomic Dynamics: Differential Equations.Each chapter ends with exercises designed to help students understand and practice the techniques they have learnt. The author has provided solutions to selected problems so that the book will function as an effective teaching tool on introductory courses in mathematics for economics, quantitative methods and for mathematicians taking a first course in economics. "Mathematics in Economics" has been developed from a course taught jointly by Ken Binmore (Professor of Economics) and Adam Ostaszewski (Senior Lecturer in Mathematics).

The analysis, prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

Economic indicators provide invaluable insights into how different economies and financial markets are performing, enabling practitioners to adjust their investment strategies in order to gain knowledge about markets and to achieve higher returns. However, in order to make the right decisions, you must know how to interpret the relevant indicators. Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets provides this important guidance. The first and second part of Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets focuses on the short-term analysis, explaining exactly what the indicators are, why they are significant, where and when they are published, and how reliable they are. In the third part, author Bernd Krampen highlights medium and long-term economic trends: It is shown how some previously discussed and additional market indicators like stocks, bond yields, commodities can be employed as basis for forecasting both GDP growth and inflation. This includes the estimation of possible future recessions. In the fourth part the predominantly good forecast properties of sentiment indicators are illustrated examining the real estate market, which is rounded up by an introduction into psychology and Behavioural Finance providing further tips and tricks in analysing financial markets. Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets is an invaluable resource for investors, strategists, policymakers, students, and private investors worldwide who want to understand the true meaning of the latest economic trends to make the best decisions for future profits on financial markets.

Notions of probability and uncertainty have been increasingly prominant in modern economics. This book considers the philosophical and practical difficulties inherent in integrating these concepts into realistic economic situations. It outlines and evaluates the major developments, indicating where further work is needed.
This book addresses:
* probability, utility and rationality within current economic thought and practice
* concepts of ignorance and indeterminancy
* experimental economics
* econometrics, with particular reference inference and estimation.

This book studies the information spillover among financial markets and explores the intraday effect and ACD models with high frequency data. This book also contributes theoretically by providing a new statistical methodology with comparative advantages for analyzing co-movements between two time series. It explores this new method by testing the information spillover between the Chinese stock market and the international market, futures market and spot market. Using the high frequency data, this book investigates the intraday effect and examines which type of ACD model is particularly suited in capturing financial duration dynamics. The book will be of invaluable use to scholars and graduate students interested in co-movements among different financial markets and financial market microstructure and to investors and regulation departments looking to improve their risk management.

Volumes 45a and 45b of Advances in Econometrics honor Professor Joon Y. Park, who has made numerous and substantive contributions to the field of econometrics over a career spanning four decades since the 1980s and counting. This second volume, Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, focuses on econometric applications related, some closely and some very loosely, to Professor Park’s more recent work before concluding with a retrospective summarizing four decades of Advances in Econometrics.

This title was first published in 2003. This book provides a much-needed comprehensive and up-to-date treatise on financial distress modelling. Since many of the challenges facing researchers of financial distress can only be addressed by a totally new research design and modelling methodology, this book concentrates on extending the potential for bankruptcy analysis from single-equation modelling to multi-equation analysis. Essentially, the work provides an innovative new approach by comparing each firm with itself over time rather than testing specific hypotheses or improving predictive and classificatory accuracy. Added to this new design, a whole new methodology - or way of modelling the process - is applied in the form of a family of models of which the traditional single equation logit or MDA models is just a special case. Preliminary two-equation and three-equation models are presented and tested in the final chapters as a taste of things to come. The groundwork for a full treatise on these sorts of multi-equation systems is laid for further study - this family of models could be used as a basis for more specific applications to different industries and to test hypotheses concerning influential variables to bankruptcy risk.

This book discusses market microstructure environment within the context of the global financial crisis. In the first part, the market microstructure theory is recalled and the main microstructure models and hypotheses are discussed. The second part focuses on the main effects of the financial downturn through an examination of market microstructure dynamics. In particular, the effects of market imperfections and the limitations associated with microstructure models are discussed. Finally, the new regulations and recent developments for financial markets that aim to improve the market microstructure are discussed. Well-known experts on the subject contribute to the chapters in the book. A must-read for academic researchers, students and quantitative practitioners.

Comprising of seven up-to-date comprehensive surveys from leading scholars in Econometrics, this book follows the format of the highly successful book, "Surveys in Econometrics," edited by Oxley, et al. (Blackwell Publishers 1995).

This collection is a unique resource for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students on quantitative/econometrics courses, as well as a wider range of academics and professional economists.

The contributions consider a range of contemporary topics from the area of cointegration and unit root testing where empirical examples are used wherever possible to illustrate the issue at hand. The topics range from issues associated with seasonality and cointegration, to panel unit root tests and the econometrics of I(2) processes.