This two-volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. The reader will find a description not only of the classical concepts and results of mathematical statistics, but also of concepts and methods recently developed for the specific needs of econometrics. The authors have sought to avoid an overly technical presentation and go to some lengths to encourage an intuitive understanding of the results by providing numerous examples throughout. The breadth of approaches and the extensive coverage of the two volumes provide for a thorough and entirely self-contained course in modern econometrics. Volume 1 provides an introduction to general concepts and methods in statistics and econometrics, and goes on to cover estimation and prediction. Volume 2 focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory.

The development of economics changed dramatically during the twentieth century with the emergence of econometrics, macroeconomics and a more scientific approach in general. One of the key individuals in the transformation of economics was Ragnar Frisch, professor at the University of Oslo and the first Nobel Laureate in economics in 1969. He was a co-founder of the Econometric Society in 1930 (after having coined the word econometrics in 1926) and edited the journal Econometrics for twenty-two years. The discovery of the manuscripts of a series of eight lectures given by Frisch at the Henri Poincar Institute in March April 1933 on The Problems and Methods of Econometrics will enable economists to more fully understand his overall vision of econometrics.

This book is a rare exhibition of Frisch 's overview on econometrics and is published here in English for the first time. Edited and with an introduction by Olav Bjerkholt and Ariane Dupont-Kieffer, Frisch 's eight lectures provide an accessible and astute discussion of econometric issues from philosophical foundations to practical procedures.

Concerning the development of economics in the twentieth century and the broader visions about economic science in general and econometrics in particular held by Ragnar Frisch, this book will appeal to anyone with an interest in the history of economics and econometrics.

Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve uncertainty as well as multiple conflicting objectives. This book provides a complete understanding of the types of objective functions that should be used in multiattribute decision making. By using tools such as preference, value, and utility functions, readers will learn state-of-the-art methods to analyze prospects to guide decision making and will develop a process that guarantees a defensible analysis to rationalize choices. Summarizing and distilling classical techniques and providing extensive coverage of recent advances in the field, the author offers practical guidance on how to make good decisions in the face of uncertainty. This text will appeal to graduate students and practitioners alike in systems engineering, operations research, business, management, government, climate change, energy, and healthcare.

Showcasing fuzzy set theory, this book highlights the enormous potential of fuzzy logic in helping to analyse the complexity of a wide range of socio-economic patterns and behaviour. The contributions to this volume explore the most up-to-date fuzzy-set methods for the measurement of socio-economic phenomena in a multidimensional and/or dynamic perspective. Thus far, fuzzy-set theory has primarily been utilised in the social sciences in the field of poverty measurement. These chapters examine the latest work in this area, while also exploring further applications including social exclusion, the labour market, educational mismatch, sustainability, quality of life and violence against women. The authors demonstrate that real-world situations are often characterised by imprecision, uncertainty and vagueness, which cannot be properly described by the classical set theory which uses a simple true-false binary logic. By contrast, fuzzy-set theory has been shown to be a powerful tool for describing the multidimensionality and complexity of social phenomena. This book will be of significant interest to economists, statisticians and sociologists utilising quantitative methods to explore socio-economic phenomena.

Model Building is the most fruitful area of economics, designed to solve real-world problems using all available methods such as mathematical, computational and analytical, without distinction. Wherever necessary, we should not be reluctant to develop new techniques, whether mathematical or computational. That is the philosophy of this volume.The volume is divided into three distinct parts: Methods, Theory and Applications. The Methods section is in turn subdivided into Mathematical Programming and Econometrics and Adaptive Control System, which are widely used in econometric analysis. The impacts of fiscal policy in a regime with independent monetary authority and dynamic models of environmental taxation are considered.In the section on "Modelling Business Organization", a model of a Japanese organization is presented. Furthermore, a model suitable for an efficient budget management of a health service unit by applying goal programming method is analyzed, taking into account various socio-economic factors. This is followed by a section on "Modelling National Economies", in which macroeconometric models for the EU member countries are analyzed, to find instruments that stabilize inflation with coordinated action.

The impact of globalization of financial markets is a highly debated topic, particularly in recent months when the issue of globalization and contagion of financial distress has become a focus of intense policy debate. The papers in this volume provide an up-to-date overview of the key issues in this debate. While most of the contributions were prepared after the initial outbreak of the current global turmoil and financial crisis, they identify the relative strengths of the risk diversification and risk transmission processes and examine the empirical evidence to date. The book considers the relative roles of banks, nonbank financial institutions and capital markets in both risk diversification and risk transmission. It then evaluates the current status of crisis resolution in a global context, and speculates where to go from here in terms of understanding, resolution, prevention and public policy.

Tourism demand is the foundation on which all tourism-related business decisions ultimately rest. Governments and companies such as airlines, tour operators, hotels, cruise ship lines, and recreation facility providers are interested in the demand for their products by tourists. The success of many businesses depends largely or totally on the state of tourism demand, and ultimate management failure is quite often due to the failure to meet market demand. This book introduces students, researchers and practitioners to the modern developments in advanced econometric methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis, and illustrates these developments with actual tourism applications. The concepts and computations of modern advanced econometric modelling methodologies are introduced at a level that is accessible to specialists and non-specialists alike. The methodologies introduced include general-to-specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time varying parameter modelling, panel data analysis and the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). In order to help the reader understand the various methodologies, extensive tourism demand examples are provided throughout the volume.

Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.

This is the second of a 1994 two-volume set of articles reflecting the state of research in theoretical and applied econometrics. The topics covered include time series methods, semiparametric methods, seasonality, financial economics, model solution techniques, economic development and labour economics. All the contributions were commissioned to be presented at the plenary sessions of the Sixth World Congress of the Econometric Society in Barcelona.

This book brings together the latest research in the areas of market microstructure and high-frequency finance along with new econometric methods to address critical practical issues in these areas of research. Thirteen chapters, each of which makes a valuable and significant contribution to the existing literature have been brought together, spanning a wide range of topics including information asymmetry and the information content in limit order books, high-frequency return distribution models, multivariate volatility forecasting, analysis of individual trading behaviour, the analysis of liquidity, price discovery across markets, market microstructure models and the information content of order flow. These issues are central both to the rapidly expanding practice of high frequency trading in financial markets and to the further development of the academic literature in this area. The volume will therefore be of immediate interest to practitioners and academics. This book was originally published as a special issue of European Journal of Finance.

A fascinating and comprehensive history, this book explores the most important transformation in twentieth century economics: the creation of econometrics. Containing fresh archival material that has not been published before and taking Ragnar Frisch as the narrator, Francisco Louca discusses both the keys events - the establishment of the Econometric Society, the Cowles Commission and the journal Econometrica - and the major players - economists like Wesley Mitchell, mathematicians like John von Neumann and statisticians like Karl Pearson - in history that shaped the development of econometrics. He discusses the evolution of their thought, detailing the debates, the quarrels and the interrogations that crystallized their work and even offers a conclusion of sorts, suggesting that some of the more influential thinkers abandoned econometrics or became critical of its development. International in scope and appeal, The Years of High Econometrics is an excellent accompaniment for students taking courses on probability, econometric methods and the history of economic thought.

The two-volume book studies the economic and industrial development of Japan and China in modern times and draws distinctions between the different paths of industrialization and economic modernization taken in the two countries, based on statistical materials, quantitative analysis and multivariate statistical analysis. The first volume analyses the relationship between technological innovation and economic development in Japan before World War II and sheds light on technological innovation in the Japanese context with particular emphasis on the importance of the patent system. The second volume studies the basic conditions and overall economic development of industrial development, chiefly during the period of the Republic of China (1912-1949), taking a comparative perspective and bringing the case of modern Japan into the discussion. The book will appeal to academics and general readers interested in economic development and the modern economic history of East Asia, development economics, as well as industrial and technological history.

Putting Econometrics in its Place is an original and fascinating book, in which Peter Swann argues that econometrics has dominated applied economics for far too long and displaced other essential techniques. While Peter Swann is critical of the monopoly that econometrics currently holds in applied economics, the more important and positive contribution of the book is to propose a new direction and a new attitude to applied economics.The advance of econometrics from its early days has been a massive achievement, but it has also been problematic; practical results from the use of econometrics are often disappointing. The author argues that to get applied economics back on course economists must use a much wider variety of research techniques, and must once again learn to respect vernacular knowledge of the economy. This vernacular includes the knowledge gathered by ordinary people from their everyday interactions with markets. While vernacular knowledge is often unsystematic and informal, it offers insights that can never be found from formal analysis alone. As a serious, original and sometimes contentious book, its readership will be varied and international. Scholars throughout the many fields of economics - both skilled and unskilled in econometrics - are likely to be intrigued by the serious alternative approaches outlined within the book. It will also appeal to communities of economists outside economics departments in government, industry and business as well as business and management schools. Research centres for applied economics, policy research and innovation research, will also find it of interest due to its focus on getting reliable results rather than methodological orthodoxy for its own sake.

This new text book by Urs Birchler and Monika Butler is an introduction to the study of how information affects economic relations. The authors provide a narrative treatment of the more formal concepts of Information Economics, using easy to understand and lively illustrations from film and literature and nutshell examples.
The book first covers the economics of information in a 'man versus nature' context, explaining basic concepts like rational updating or the value of information. Then in a 'man versus man' setting, Birchler and Butler describe strategic issues in the use of information: the make-buy-or-copy decision, the working and failure of markets and the important role of outguessing each other in a macroeconomic context. It closes with a 'man versus himself' perspective, focusing on information management within the individual.

This book also comes with a supporting website (www.alicebob.info), maintained by the authors.

Examining the crucial topic of race relations, this book explores the economic and social environments that play a significant role in determining economic outcomes and why racial disparities persist.

With contributions from a range of international contributors including Edward Wolff and Catherine Weinberger, the book compares how various racial groups fare and are affected in different ways by economic and social institution. Themes covered in the book include:

• the economic status of various racial and ethnic groups, including their progress or retrenchment over the years
• how the law, economic motivations, and increased competition for jobs affect racial disparities.

This is an invaluable resource for researchers and academics across a number of disciplines including political economy, ethnic and multicultural studies, Asian studies, and sociology.

"Applied Econometrics for Health Economists" introduces readers to the appropriate econometric techniques for use with different forms of survey data, known collectively as microeconometrics. The book provides a complete illustration of the steps involved in doing microeconometric research. The only study to deal with practical analysis of qualitative and categorical variables, it also emphasises applied work, illustrating the use of relevant computer software applied to large-scale survey datasets. This is a comprehensive reference guide - it contains a glossary of terms, a technical appendix, software appendix, references, and suggestions for further reading. It is concise and easy to read - technical details are avoided in the main text and key terms are highlighted. It is essential reading for health economists as well as undergraduate and postgraduate students of health economics. "Given the extensive use of individual-level survey data in health economics, it is important to understand the econometric techniques available to applied researchers. Moreover, it is just as important to be aware of their limitations and pitfalls. The purpose of this book is to introduce readers to the appropriate econometric techniques for use with different forms of survey data - known collectively as microeconometrics." - Andrew Jones, in the Preface.

Bringing together leading-edge research and innovative energy markets econometrics, this book collects the author's most important recent contributions in energy economics. In particular, the book:* applies recent advances in the field of applied econometrics to investigate a number of issues regarding energy markets, including the theory of storage and the efficient markets hypothesis* presents the basic stylized facts on energy price movements using correlation analysis, causality tests, integration theory, cointegration theory, as well as recently developed procedures for testing for shared and codependent cycles* uses recent advances in the financial econometrics literature to model time-varying returns and volatility in energy prices and to test for causal relationships between energy prices and their volatilities* explores the functioning of electricity markets and applies conventional models of time series analysis to investigate a number of issues regarding wholesale power prices in the western North American markets* applies tools from statistics and dynamical systems theory to test for nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos in a number of North American hydrocarbon markets (those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naptha, crude oil, and natural gas)

The book first discusses in depth various aspects of the well-known inconsistency that arises when explanatory variables in a linear regression model are measured with error. Despite this inconsistency, the region where the true regression coeffecients lies can sometimes be characterized in a useful way, especially when bounds are known on the measurement error variance but also when such information is absent. Wage discrimination with imperfect productivity measurement is discussed as an important special case.

Next, it is shown that the inconsistency is not accidental but fundamental. Due to an identification problem, no consistent estimators may exist at all. Additional information is desirable. This information can be of various types. One type is exact prior knowledge about functions of the parameters. This leads to the CALS estimator. Another major type is in the form of instrumental variables. Many aspects of this are discussed, including heteroskedasticity, combination of data from different sources, construction of instruments from the available data, and the LIML estimator, which is especially relevant when the instruments are weak.

The scope is then widened to an embedding of the regression equation with measurement error in a multiple equations setting, leading to the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) model. This marks the step from measurement error to latent variables. Estimation of the EFA model leads to an eigenvalue problem. A variety of models is reviewed that involve eignevalue problems as their common characteristic.

EFA is extended to confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) by including restrictions on the parameters of the factor analysis model, and next by relating the factors to background variables.
These models are all structural equation models (SEMs), a very general and important class of models, with the LISREL model as its best-known representation, encompassing almost all linear equation systems with latent variables.

Estimation of SEMs can be viewed as an application of the generalized method of moments (GMM). GMM in general and for SEM in particular is discussed at great length, including the generality of GMM, optimal weighting, conditional moments, continuous updating, simulation estimation, the link with the method of maximum likelihood, and in particular testing and model evaluation for GMM.

The discussion concludes with nonlinear models. The emphasis is on polynomial models and models that are nonlinear due to a filter on the dependent variables, like discrete choice models or models with ordered categorical variables.

Originally published in 1951, this volume reprints the classic work written by one of the leading global econometricians.
Econometrics is structured as followed:
Part 1 explains the relationship of Econometrics to Economics and Statistics.
Part 2 outlines the process of formulating economic hypotheses mathematically and of subjecting them to a statistical test.
Part 3 deals with the various component equations of the economic system - the psychic reactions, technical relations and reactions of business life and describes the process of setting up an economic model of the system as a whole.
Part 4 llustrates the use of econometric methods for policy purposes.

Today, most money is credit money, created by commercial banks. While credit can finance innovation, excessive credit can lead to boom/bust cycles, such as the recent financial crisis. This highlights how the organization of our monetary system is crucial to stability. One way to achieve this is by separating the unit of account from the medium of exchange and in pre-modern Europe, such a separation existed. This new volume examines this idea of monetary separation and this history of monetary arrangements in the North and Baltic Seas region, from the Hanseatic League onwards. This book provides a theoretical analysis of four historical cases in the Baltic and North Seas region, with a view to examining evolution of monetary arrangements from a new monetary economics perspective. Since the objective exhange value of money (its purchasing power), reflects subjective individual valuations of commodities, the author assesses these historical cases by means of exchange rates. Using theories from new monetary economics , the book explores how the units of account and their media of exchange evolved as social conventions, and offers new insight into the separation between the two. Through this exploration, it puts forward that money is a social institution, a clearing device for the settlement of accounts, and so the value of money, or a separate unit of account, ultimately results from the size of its network of users. The History of Money and Monetary Arrangements offers a highly original new insight into monetary arrangments as an evolutionary process. It will be of great interest to an international audience of scholars and students, including those with an interest in economic history, evolutionary economics and new monetary economics.

Practically all donor countries that give aid claim to do so on the basis on the recipient's good governance, but do these claims have a real impact on the allocation of aid? Are democratic, human rights-respecting, countries with low levels of corruption and military expenditures actually likely to receive more aid than other countries?
Using econometric analysis, the author examines the factors that really determine the patterns of aid giving. The author analyses such examples as:
* aggregate aid flows
* aid from multilateral organisations such as the EU and the UN
* aid from bilateral donors such as Germany, Japan, the US as well as Arab donors.
This concise, well argued and well researched book will be a great read for students, academics and policy-makers involved in development studies, economics and international relations.

This book focuses on quantitative survey methodology, data collection and cleaning methods. Providing starting tools for using and analyzing a file once a survey has been conducted, it addresses fields as diverse as advanced weighting, editing, and imputation, which are not well-covered in corresponding survey books. Moreover, it presents numerous empirical examples from the author's extensive research experience, particularly real data sets from multinational surveys.

This concise textbook presents students with all they need for advancing in mathematical economics. Detailed yet student-friendly, Vohra's book contains chapters in, amongst others:

* Feasibility
* Convex Sets
* Linear and Non-linear Programming
* Lattices and Supermodularity.

Higher level undergraduates as well as postgraduate students in mathematical economics will find this book extremely useful in their development as economists.

This concise textbook presents students with all they need for advancing in mathematical economics. Detailed yet student-friendly, Vohra's book contains chapters in, amongst others:

* Feasibility
* Convex Sets
* Linear and Non-linear Programming
* Lattices and Supermodularity.

Higher level undergraduates as well as postgraduate students in mathematical economics will find this book extremely useful in their development as economists.

"A Companion to Theoretical Econometrics" provides a comprehensive reference to the basics of econometrics. It focuses on the foundations of the field and at the same time integrates popular topics often encountered by practitioners. The chapters are written by international experts and provide up-to-date research in areas not usually covered by standard econometric texts.

This book is an exceptional reference for readers who require quick access to the foundation theories in this field. Chapters are organized to provide clear information and to point to further readings on the subject. Important topics covered include:
serial correlation
heteroskedasticity
nonparametric and semiparametric models
count and panel data regression models
spatial correlation