This volume focuses on econometric models that confront estimation and inference issues occurring when sample data exhibit spatial or spatiotemporal dependence. This can arise when decisions or transactions of economic agents are related to the behaviour of nearby agents. Dependence of one observation on neighbouring observations violates the typical assumption of independence made in regression analysis. Contributions to this volume by leading experts in the field of spatial econometrics provide details regarding estimation and inference based on a variety of econometric methods including, maximum likelihood, Bayesian and hierarchical Bayes, instrumental variables, generalized method of moments, maximum entropy, non-parametric and spatiotemporal. An overview of spatial econometric models and methods is provided that places contributions to this volume in the context of existing literature. New methods for estimation and inference are introduced in this volume and Monte Carlo comparisons of existing methods are described. In addition to topics involving estimation and inference, approaches to model comparison and selection are set forth along with new tests for spatial dependence and functional form. These methods are applied to a variety of economic problems including: hedonic real estate pricing, agricultural harvests and disaster payments, voting behaviour, identification of edge cities, and regional labour markets. The volume is supported by a web site containing data sets and software to implement many of the methods described by contributors to this volume.

Over the course of his professional life, John Maynard Keynes altered his views from free trade in the classical tradition to restricted trade. At the end of his career, his position on the issue was still not categorically resolved even though the evidence seems to suggest that he moved closer to a system of managed trade. In that model, nations would not leave their foreign trade interests open to the vagaries of the free market, but rather exercise some degree of control over them just as they would their domestic economies. Nevertheless, there is no general agreement among economists as to whether Keynes ended his career in the camp of the free traders or aligned himself with the protectionists. John Maynard Keynes: Free Trader or Protectionist? seeks an answer to this question by analyzing Keynes' own views on this issue, as stated in his major publications, letters, speeches, testimony before government bodies, newspaper articles, participation in conferences, and other sources. Through this detailed review of what Keynes himself had to say on the issue as opposed to what others have alleged, this book strives to make a significant contribution to the resolution of this issue.

The aim of this book is an applied and unified introduction into parametric, non- and semiparametric regression that closes the gap between theory and application. The most important models and methods in regression are presented on a solid formal basis, and their appropriate application is shown through many real data examples and case studies. Availability of (user-friendly) software has been a major criterion for the methods selected and presented. Thus, the book primarily targets an audience that includes students, teachers and practitioners in social, economic, and life sciences, as well as students and teachers in statistics programs, and mathematicians and computer scientists with interests in statistical modeling and data analysis. It is written on an intermediate mathematical level and assumes only knowledge of basic probability, calculus, and statistics. The most important definitions and statements are concisely summarized in boxes. Two appendices describe required matrix algebra, as well as elements of probability calculus and statistical inference.

This book provides an economic and econometric analysis of real estate investment and real estate market behaviour. Peijie Wang examines fluctuations in the real estate business to reveal the mechanisms governing the interactions between the industry and other sectors of the economy.

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the fruitful achievement of China's Quantitative Economics during the past 30 years, assembling pioneering contributions of prominent quantitative economists in China. It chronicles significant events and the detailed evolution of Quantitative Economics in China. This well-organized book is a must-have for scholars to get a full picture of the status quo, and identify possible research gaps.

The past ten years for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries have registered an extreme deterioration in at least one measure of social and economic welfare: earnings inequality, unemployment, and poverty. The combination of slow economic growth, population explosion, and decline in labor productivity led to the reversal of the economic gains achieved during the economic boom in the 1970s. In contrast to that period, growth per capita (GDP) in 1980-1991 for Arab countries was -0.2%. Several indicators point to the extent of the problems faced today by the region's countries. Although the percentage of poverty declined for the majority of the regions in the world in 1985-1990, it has increased in the MENA region.

The purpose of this volume is to address the conditions of earnings inequality, unemployment, and poverty in the MENA region and the problems associated with these factors; to determine the state and magnitude of these problems through various country studies; and to provide solutions to alleviate the negative conditions facing developing economies, with special emphasis on the MENA countries.

As communities in the United States and Europe confront shortages of disposal capacity, the growing solid waste stream increasingly threatens the environment.This important new book addresses a major policy question regarding the solid waste crisis: should municipalities charge households user fees for solid waste services? In her study of this issue, Professor Jenkins draws on a unique data set which relates the quantities of waste discarded and the prices charged to households for waste services in nine US communities. She thoroughly analyses the relationship between the quantity of waste that individuals discard and such socio-economic variables as household income, the age of individuals and the population density of the community. In addition she develops a utility maximization model that suggests that user fees do encourage people to recycle waste. Finally she provides simple instructions for forecasting the quantity of waste discarded by a particular community. This unique book will be essential reading not only for social scientists with an interest in the environment but also for government officials and community activists concerned with the solid waste crisis.

The major methodological task for modern economists has been to establish the testability of models. Too often, however, methodological assumptions can make a model virtually impossible to test even under ideal conditions, yet few theorists have examined the requirements and problems of assuring testability in economics. In The Methodology of Economic Model Building, first published in 1989, Lawrence Boland presents the results of a research project that spanned more than twenty years. He examines how economists have applied the philosophy of Karl Popper, relating methodological debates about falsifiability to wider discussions about the truth status of models in natural and social sciences. He concludes that model building in economics reflects more the methodological prescriptions of the economist Paul Samuelson than Popper's 'falsificationism'. This title will prove invaluable to both students and researchers, and represents a substantial contribution to current debates about the scientific status of economics.

This book offers a fresh perspective on the early history of macroeconomics, by examining the macro-dynamic models developed from the late 1920s to the late 1940s, and their treatment of economic instability. It first explores the differences and similarities between the early mathematical business cycle models developed by Ragnar Frisch, Michal Kalecki, Jan Tinbergen and others, which were presented at meetings of the Econometric Society and discussed in private correspondence. By doing so, it demonstrates the diversity of models representing economic phenomena and especially economic crises and instability. Jan Tinbergen emerged as one of the most original and pivotal economists of this period, before becoming a leader of the macro-econometric movement, a role for which he is better known. His emphasis on economic policy was later mirrored in the United States in Paul Samuelson's early work on business cycles analysis, which, drawing on Alvin Hansen, aimed at interpreting the 1937-1938 recession. The authors then show that the subsequent shift in Samuelson's approach, from the study of business cycle trajectories to the comparison of equilibrium points, provided a response to the econometricians' critique of early Keynesian models. In the early 1940s, Samuelson was able to link together the tools that had been developed by the econometricians and the economic content that was at the heart of the so-called Keynesian revolution. The problem then shifted from business cycle trajectories to the disequilibrium between economic aggregates, and the issues raised by the global stability of full employment equilibrium. This was addressed by Oskar Lange, who presented an analysis of market coordination failures, and Lawrence Klein, Samuelson's first PhD student, who pursued empirical work in this direction. The book highlights the various visions and approaches that were embedded in these macro-dynamic models, and that their originality is of interest to today's model builders as well as to students and anyone interested in how new economic ideas come to be developed.

How do technology, public works projects, mental health, race, gender, mobility, retirement benefits, and macroeconomic policies affect worker well-being? This volume contains fourteen original chapters utilizing the latest econometric techniques to answer this question. The findings include the following: (1) Technology gains explain over half the decline in U.S. unemployment and over two-thirds the reduction in U.S. inflation. (2) Universal health coverage would reduce U.S. labor force participation by 3.3%. (3) Blacks respond to regional rather than national changes in schooling rates of return, perhaps implying a more local labor market for blacks than whites. (4) Employee motivation enhances labor force participation, on-the-job training, job satisfaction and earnings. (5) Male and female promotion and quit rates are comparable once one controls for individual and job characteristics. (6) Public works programs designed to increase a worker's skills do not always increase reemployment. And (7) U.S. pension wealth increased about 20%-25% over the last two decades.

Contrary to much Marxist thought, Everling does not view socialism as an antithesis to capitalism, and argues that socialism is, among other things, an objective development of capitalism. As capitalism develops it creates the premises for social development which are also the bases for a socialist and democratic construction of society. Drawing on economics, urban geography, political theory and Marxism, Social Economy: * Examines the evolution of capitalism from its early industrial to its present urban and global forms * Shows how Marx understood the economy as a unity of production, distribution, exchange and consumption engaged in social reproduction * Explores the contradictory evolution of US corporations and urban development from 1945 to the present * Argues that urban space involves requirements for social and individual reproduction which extend well beyond limits inherent in transnational corporate private appropriation Using his unique arguments, Everling makes the case that economic expansion can now best be secured by forms of development that take us beyond the limits of capitalism and point towards a democratic and socialist society.

This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader's analytical capability.

Econometric issues have provoked a lively and sometimes adversarial debate in the economics profession. The excitement and intellectual vitality of that debate is captured here for the reader in a lucid overview of econometric approaches, describing their advantages and limitations. This ambitious book focuses on the underlying methodological issues rather than concentrating upon econometric techniques. The limits of econometric investigations are identified through a critical appraisal of three different approaches associated with the work of Professors Hendry, Leamer and Sims. After explaining why the early optimism in econometrics was misplaced, it argues that rejection is not an appropriate response. It offers a rich spectrum of approaches to a problem of central importance in the development of modern economics. The book will appeal not only to all econometricians whatever their persuasion but also to all those with an interest in the methodology of economics.

Emphasizing the impact of computer software and computational technology on econometric theory and development, this text presents recent advances in the application of computerized tools to econometric techniques and practicesA[a, ¬a focusing on current innovations in Monte Carlo simulation, computer-aided testing, model selection, and Bayesian methodology for improved econometric analyses.

This book covers diverse themes, including institutions and efficiency, choice and values, law and economics, development and policy, and social and economic measurement. Written in honour of the distinguished economist Satish K. Jain, this compilation of essays should appeal not only to students and researchers of economic theory but also to those interested in the design and evaluation of institutions and policy.

This textbook concisely covers math knowledge and tools useful for business and economics studies, including matrix analysis, basic math concepts, general optimization, dynamic optimization, and ordinary differential equations. Basic math tools, particularly optimization tools, are essential for students in a business school, especially for students in economics, accounting, finance, management, and marketing. It is a standard practice nowadays that a graduate program in a business school requires a short and intense course in math just before or immediately after the students enter the program. Math in Economics aims to be the main textbook for such a crash course.The 1st edition was published by People's University Publisher, China. This new edition contains an added chapter on Probability Theory along with changes and improvements throughout.

This textbook concisely covers math knowledge and tools useful for business and economics studies, including matrix analysis, basic math concepts, general optimization, dynamic optimization, and ordinary differential equations. Basic math tools, particularly optimization tools, are essential for students in a business school, especially for students in economics, accounting, finance, management, and marketing. It is a standard practice nowadays that a graduate program in a business school requires a short and intense course in math just before or immediately after the students enter the program. Math in Economics aims to be the main textbook for such a crash course.The 1st edition was published by People's University Publisher, China. This new edition contains an added chapter on Probability Theory along with changes and improvements throughout.

This is the first volume in a ten-volume set designed for publication in 1997. It reprints in book form a selection of the most important and influential articles on probability, econometrics and economic games which cumulatively have had a major impact on the development of modern economics. There are 242 articles, dating from 1936 to 1996. Many of them were originally published in relatively inaccessible journals and may not, therefore, be available in the archives of many university libraries. The volumes are available separately and also as a complete ten-volume set. The contributors include D. Ellsberg, R.M. Hogart, J.B. Kadane, B.O. Koopmans, E.L. Lehman, D.F. Nicholls, H. Rubin, T.J. Sarjent, L.H. Summers and C.R. Wymer. This particular volume deals with the foundations of probability, econometrics and economic games.

The book provides an extensive discussion of asymptotic theory of M-estimators in the context of dynamic nonlinear models. The class of M-estimators contains least mean distance estimators (including maximum likelihood estimators) and generalized method of moments estimators. In addition to establishing the asymptotic properties of such estimators, the book provides a detailed discussion of the statistical and probabilistic tools necessary for such an analysis. The book also gives a careful treatment of estimators of asymptotic variance covariance matrices for dependent processes.

Change of Time and Change of Measure provides a comprehensive account of two topics that are of particular significance in both theoretical and applied stochastics: random change of time and change of probability law.Random change of time is key to understanding the nature of various stochastic processes, and gives rise to interesting mathematical results and insights of importance for the modeling and interpretation of empirically observed dynamic processes. Change of probability law is a technique for solving central questions in mathematical finance, and also has a considerable role in insurance mathematics, large deviation theory, and other fields.The book comprehensively collects and integrates results from a number of scattered sources in the literature and discusses the importance of the results relative to the existing literature, particularly with regard to mathematical finance.In this Second Edition a Chapter 13 entitled 'A Wider View' has been added. This outlines some of the developments that have taken place in the area of Change of Time and Change of Measure since the publication of the First Edition. Most of these developments have their root in the study of the Statistical Theory of Turbulence rather than in Financial Mathematics and Econometrics, and they form part of the new research area termed 'Ambit Stochastics'.

This volume gathers together key new contributions on the subject of the relationship, both empirical and theoretical, between economic oscillations, growth and structural change. Employing a sophisticated level of mathematical modelling, the collection contains articles from, amongst others, William Baumol, Katsuhito Iwai and William Brock.

This book is an introduction to financial valuation and financial data analyses using econometric methods. It is intended for advanced finance undergraduates and graduates. Most chapters in the book would contain one or more finance application examples where finance concepts, and sometimes theory, are taught.This book is a modest attempt to bring together several important domains in financial valuation theory, in econometrics modelling, and in the empirical analyses of financial data. These domains are highly intertwined and should be properly understood in order to correctly and effectively harness the power of data and statistical or econometrics methods for investment and financial decision-making.The contribution in this book, and at the same time, its novelty, is in employing materials in basic econometrics, particularly linear regression analyses, and weaving into it threads of foundational finance theory, concepts, ideas, and models. It provides a clear pedagogical approach to allow very effective learning by a finance student who wants to be well equipped in both theory and ability to research the data.This is a handy book for finance professionals doing research to easily access the key techniques in data analyses using regression methods. Students learn all 3 skills at once - finance, econometrics, and data analyses. It provides for very solid and useful learning for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who wish to work in financial analyses, risk analyses, and financial research areas.

Are there distinct European traditions in economics? Is modern economics homogenous and American? The volume includes case studies of the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece. Each of these examines the conditions relating to the supply of, and demand for, economists. These include: the growth of higher education, the development of postgraduate training in economics, international linkages, both within Europe and outside it, economic ideas and professionalization, and involvement in economic policy-making and public affairs. Whilst each chapter is attentive to particular national features, they also place the development of economics in the context of the postwar movement towards European integration.