Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. * Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance * Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables * Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output * Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

Volume 27 of "Advances in Econometrics", entitled "Missing Data Methods", contains 16 chapters authored by specialists in the field, covering topics such as: Missing-Data Imputation in Nonstationary Panel Data Models; Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance; Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Sample Selection Models Using Gaussian Copulas; Consistent Estimation and Orthogonality; and Likelihood-Based Estimators for Endogenous or Truncated Samples in Standard Stratified Sampling.

Financial Economics and Econometrics provides an overview of the core topics in theoretical and empirical finance, with an emphasis on applications and interpreting results. Structured in five parts, the book covers financial data and univariate models; asset returns; interest rates, yields and spreads; volatility and correlation; and corporate finance and policy. Each chapter begins with a theory in financial economics, followed by econometric methodologies which have been used to explore the theory. Next, the chapter presents empirical evidence and discusses seminal papers on the topic. Boxes offer insights on how an idea can be applied to other disciplines such as management, marketing and medicine, showing the relevance of the material beyond finance. Readers are supported with plenty of worked examples and intuitive explanations throughout the book, while key takeaways, 'test your knowledge' and 'test your intuition' features at the end of each chapter also aid student learning. Digital supplements including PowerPoint slides, computer codes supplements, an Instructor's Manual and Solutions Manual are available for instructors. This textbook is suitable for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses on financial economics, financial econometrics, empirical finance and related quantitative areas.

Change of Time and Change of Measure provides a comprehensive account of two topics that are of particular significance in both theoretical and applied stochastics: random change of time and change of probability law.Random change of time is key to understanding the nature of various stochastic processes, and gives rise to interesting mathematical results and insights of importance for the modeling and interpretation of empirically observed dynamic processes. Change of probability law is a technique for solving central questions in mathematical finance, and also has a considerable role in insurance mathematics, large deviation theory, and other fields.The book comprehensively collects and integrates results from a number of scattered sources in the literature and discusses the importance of the results relative to the existing literature, particularly with regard to mathematical finance. It is invaluable as a textbook for graduate-level courses and students or a handy reference for researchers and practitioners in financial mathematics and econometrics.

First published in 1985, Advances in Monetary Economics draws together papers given at the 1984 Money Study Group Conference and additional papers presented in seminars of the same year. The book includes papers on theoretical, empirical and institutional aspects of monetary economics. Each chapter displays a concern with policy in the monetary sphere, both with regards to macroeconomic questions of monetary and fiscal management, and issues of policy at the microeconomic level towards financial institutions and markets. In doing so, the book highlights the importance of monetary economics in policy issues. Advances in Monetary Economics has enduring relevance for those with an interest in the history and development of monetary economics.

The book's comprehensive coverage on the application of econometric methods to empirical analysis of economic issues is impressive. It uncovers the missing link between textbooks on economic theory and econometrics and highlights the powerful connection between economic theory and empirical analysis perfectly through examples on rigorous experimental design. The use of data sets for estimation derived with the Monte Carlo method helps facilitate the understanding of the role of hypothesis testing applied to economic models. Topics covered in the book are: consumer behavior, producer behavior, market equilibrium, macroeconomic models, qualitative-response models, panel data analysis and time-series analysis. Key econometric models are introduced, specified, estimated and evaluated. The treatment on methods of estimation in econometrics and the discipline of hypothesis testing makes it a must-have for graduate students of economics and econometrics and aids their understanding on how to estimate economic models and evaluate the results in terms of policy implications.

The results of the 1959 Glasgow University investigation into British industrial profit, business saving, and investment are the subject of this book, originally published in 1965. Part 1 presents original estimates of profits in British industries 1920-1938, which when linked with Government estimates of such profits since 1948, permit long runs studies of the fortunes of individual industries. In addition, the appropriation of profit between dividends and business saving is also estimated for manufacturing industry 1920-1938. Part 2 begins the analysis of the extensive financial data collected in the Glasgow enquiry and is concerned with the effects of the size of a firm on its financial performance. The financial performance of large companies quoted on the Stock Exchange with a sample of small unquoted private companies and unincorporated firms is compared.

This book offers the representative macroeconometric models and their applications for the Japanese economy in different development stages throughout the postwar years up to the present. It presents a summary of three types of macroeconometric models and analyses: Social accounting analyses of national income and related indices following the tradition of C Clark, S Kuznets, R Stone and World Bank Development Reports; Inter-industrial and inter-regional analyses of the Japanese economy a la W Leontief and the CGE (computable general equilibrium) type of applications to Comprehensive Development Plans; Macroeconometric model building for the Japanese economy and its applications with a survey of various models in Japan, including the historic Osaka University ISER (Institute of Social and Economic Research) model and present day Government models. As many Asian economies are going through the stages of development that Japan has experienced over the past few decades, this book will be extremely relevant to them and other developing countries as a reference for years to come.

Originally published in 1968, this second volume of the Glasgow Studies in Profit, Business Saving and Investment uses the financial data assembled in Volume 1 to test economic theories of the factor distribution income, of the appropriation of profit, of the determinants of investment, and of the return on capital. The tests enabled the measurement of long-run and short-run variation of the ratio of profit to employee compensation in the United Kingdom at the level of individual industries and the whole industrial sector. As well as measuring the relationship between a company's sales or profits and its expenditure on fixed assets, the book describes the long-term decline in the rate of return on capital in the UK and measures the effect of the intensity of competition on this return.

This book contains a set of notes prepared by Ragnar Frisch for a lecture series that he delivered at Yale University in 1930. The lecture notes provide not only a valuable source document for the history of econometrics, but also a more systematic introduction to some of Frisch's key methodological ideas than his other works so far published in various media for the econometrics community. In particular, these notes contain a number of prescient ideas precursory to some of the most important notions developed in econometrics during the 1970s and 1980s More remarkably, Frisch demonstrated a deep understanding of what econometric or statistical analysis could achieve under the situation where there lacked known correct theoretical models. This volume has been rigorously edited and comes with an introductory essay from Olav Bjerkholt and Duo Qin placing the notes in their historical context.

Designed for a one-semester course, Applied Statistics for Business and Economics offers students in business and the social sciences an effective introduction to some of the most basic and powerful techniques available for understanding their world. Numerous interesting and important examples reflect real-life situations, stimulating students to think realistically in tackling these problems. Calculations can be performed using any standard spreadsheet package. To help with the examples, the author offers both actual and hypothetical databases on his website http: //iwu.edu/ bleekley

The text explores ways to describe data and the relationships found in data. It covers basic probability tools, Bayes? theorem, sampling, estimation, and confidence intervals. The text also discusses hypothesis testing for one and two samples, contingency tables, goodness-of-fit, analysis of variance, and population variances. In addition, the author develops the concepts behind the linear relationship between two numeric variables (simple regression) as well as the potentially nonlinear relationships among more than two variables (multiple regression). The final chapter introduces classical time-series analysis and how it applies to business and economics.

This text provides a practical understanding of the value of statistics in the real world. After reading the book, students will be able to summarize data in insightful ways using charts, graphs, and summary statistics as well as make inferences from samples, especially about relationships.

Using unique and cutting-edge research, Schofield a prominent author in the US for a number of years, explores the growth area of positive political economy within economics and politics. The first book to explain the spatial model of voting from a mathematical, economics and game-theory perspective it is essential reading for all those studying positive political economy.

This impressive collection from some of today's leading distributional analysts provides an overview a wide range of economic, statistical and sociological relationships that have been opened up for scientific study by the work of two turn-of-the-20th-century economists: C. Gini and M. O. Lorenz. The authors include such figues as Barry Arnold and Frank Cowell and the resulting book deserves its place on the bookshelf of serious mathematical economists everywhere.

Achille Nicolas Isnard (1749-1803) an engineer with a keen interest in political economy, is best known for demonstrating the concept of market equilibrium using a system of simultaneous equations. The breadth and depth of his work undoubtedly established him as one of the forerunners of modern mathematical economics, yet his seminal contributions to the study of economics remained largely unrecognized until the latter half of the twentieth century. This pioneering new book, the first in English, examines Isnard's life and illuminates his major contributions to political economy. It contains substantial extracts from a number of his publications presented both in English translation and in the original French so Isnard can now finally achieve his place at the heart of discussion on the origins of mathematical economics. The diverse issues covered here will ensure that this book appeals not only to economists with an interest in the history of mathematical economics, but to anyone interested in the emergence of political economy and in wider social thought during the Enlightenment.

Examining the crucial topic of race relations, this book explores the economic and social environments that play a significant role in determining economic outcomes and why racial disparities persist.

With contributions from a range of international contributors including Edward Wolff and Catherine Weinberger, the book compares how various racial groups fare and are affected in different ways by economic and social institution. Themes covered in the book include:

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• the economic status of various racial and ethnic groups, including their progress or retrenchment over the years
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• how the law, economic motivations, and increased competition for jobs affect racial disparities.

This is an invaluable resource for researchers and academics across a number of disciplines including political economy, ethnic and multicultural studies, Asian studies, and sociology.

* Includes many mathematical examples and problems for students to work directly with both standard and nonstandard models of behaviour to develop problem-solving and critical-thinking skills which are more valuable to students than memorizing content which will quickly be forgotten. * The applications explored in the text emphasise issues of inequality, social mobility, culture and poverty to demonstrate the impact of behavioral economics in areas which students are most passionate about. * The text has a standardized structure (6 parts, 3 chapters in each) which provides a clear and consistent roadmap for students taking the course.

Model Building is the most fruitful area of economics, designed to solve real-world problems using all available methods such as mathematical, computational and analytical, without distinction. Wherever necessary, we should not be reluctant to develop new techniques, whether mathematical or computational. That is the philosophy of this volume.The volume is divided into three distinct parts: Methods, Theory and Applications. The Methods section is in turn subdivided into Mathematical Programming and Econometrics and Adaptive Control System, which are widely used in econometric analysis. The impacts of fiscal policy in a regime with independent monetary authority and dynamic models of environmental taxation are considered.In the section on "Modelling Business Organization", a model of a Japanese organization is presented. Furthermore, a model suitable for an efficient budget management of a health service unit by applying goal programming method is analyzed, taking into account various socio-economic factors. This is followed by a section on "Modelling National Economies", in which macroeconometric models for the EU member countries are analyzed, to find instruments that stabilize inflation with coordinated action.

The development of economics changed dramatically during the twentieth century with the emergence of econometrics, macroeconomics and a more scientific approach in general. One of the key individuals in the transformation of economics was Ragnar Frisch, professor at the University of Oslo and the first Nobel Laureate in economics in 1969. He was a co-founder of the Econometric Society in 1930 (after having coined the word econometrics in 1926) and edited the journal Econometrics for twenty-two years. The discovery of the manuscripts of a series of eight lectures given by Frisch at the Henri Poincar Institute in March April 1933 on The Problems and Methods of Econometrics will enable economists to more fully understand his overall vision of econometrics.

This book is a rare exhibition of Frisch 's overview on econometrics and is published here in English for the first time. Edited and with an introduction by Olav Bjerkholt and Ariane Dupont-Kieffer, Frisch 's eight lectures provide an accessible and astute discussion of econometric issues from philosophical foundations to practical procedures.

Concerning the development of economics in the twentieth century and the broader visions about economic science in general and econometrics in particular held by Ragnar Frisch, this book will appeal to anyone with an interest in the history of economics and econometrics.

This monograph examines the domain of classical political economy using the methodologies developed in recent years both by the new discipline of econo-physics and by computing science. This approach is used to re-examine the classical subdivisions of political economy: production, exchange, distribution and finance.

The book begins by examining the most basic feature of economic life production and asks what it is about physical laws that allows production to take place. How is it that human labour is able to modify the world? It looks at the role that information has played in the process of mass production and the extent to which human labour still remains a key resource. The Ricardian labour theory of value is re-examined in the light of econophysics, presenting agent based models in which the Ricardian theory of value appears as an emergent property. The authors present models giving rise to the class distribution of income, and the long term evolution of profit rates in market economies. Money is analysed using tools drawn both from computer science and the recent Chartalist school of financial theory.

Covering a combination of techniques drawn from three areas, classical political economy, theoretical computer science and econophysics, to produce models that deepen our understanding of economic reality, this new title will be of interest to higher level doctoral and research students, as well as scientists working in the field of econophysics.

The impact of globalization of financial markets is a highly debated topic, particularly in recent months when the issue of globalization and contagion of financial distress has become a focus of intense policy debate. The papers in this volume provide an up-to-date overview of the key issues in this debate. While most of the contributions were prepared after the initial outbreak of the current global turmoil and financial crisis, they identify the relative strengths of the risk diversification and risk transmission processes and examine the empirical evidence to date. The book considers the relative roles of banks, nonbank financial institutions and capital markets in both risk diversification and risk transmission. It then evaluates the current status of crisis resolution in a global context, and speculates where to go from here in terms of understanding, resolution, prevention and public policy.

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Routledge Studies in the History of Economics

Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve uncertainty as well as multiple conflicting objectives. This book provides a complete understanding of the types of objective functions that should be used in multiattribute decision making. By using tools such as preference, value, and utility functions, readers will learn state-of-the-art methods to analyze prospects to guide decision making and will develop a process that guarantees a defensible analysis to rationalize choices. Summarizing and distilling classical techniques and providing extensive coverage of recent advances in the field, the author offers practical guidance on how to make good decisions in the face of uncertainty. This text will appeal to graduate students and practitioners alike in systems engineering, operations research, business, management, government, climate change, energy, and healthcare.

Tourism demand is the foundation on which all tourism-related business decisions ultimately rest. Governments and companies such as airlines, tour operators, hotels, cruise ship lines, and recreation facility providers are interested in the demand for their products by tourists. The success of many businesses depends largely or totally on the state of tourism demand, and ultimate management failure is quite often due to the failure to meet market demand. This book introduces students, researchers and practitioners to the modern developments in advanced econometric methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis, and illustrates these developments with actual tourism applications. The concepts and computations of modern advanced econometric modelling methodologies are introduced at a level that is accessible to specialists and non-specialists alike. The methodologies introduced include general-to-specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time varying parameter modelling, panel data analysis and the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). In order to help the reader understand the various methodologies, extensive tourism demand examples are provided throughout the volume.

Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.

Showcasing fuzzy set theory, this book highlights the enormous potential of fuzzy logic in helping to analyse the complexity of a wide range of socio-economic patterns and behaviour. The contributions to this volume explore the most up-to-date fuzzy-set methods for the measurement of socio-economic phenomena in a multidimensional and/or dynamic perspective. Thus far, fuzzy-set theory has primarily been utilised in the social sciences in the field of poverty measurement. These chapters examine the latest work in this area, while also exploring further applications including social exclusion, the labour market, educational mismatch, sustainability, quality of life and violence against women. The authors demonstrate that real-world situations are often characterised by imprecision, uncertainty and vagueness, which cannot be properly described by the classical set theory which uses a simple true-false binary logic. By contrast, fuzzy-set theory has been shown to be a powerful tool for describing the multidimensionality and complexity of social phenomena. This book will be of significant interest to economists, statisticians and sociologists utilising quantitative methods to explore socio-economic phenomena.