This book employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model - a widely used economic model which uses actual data to provide economic analysis and policy assessment - and applies it to economic data on Singapore's tourism industry. The authors set out to demonstrate how a novice modeller can acquire the necessary skills and knowledge to successfully apply general equilibrium models to tourism studies. The chapters explain how to build a computable general equilibrium model for tourism, how to conduct simulation and, most importantly, how to analyse modelling results. This applied study acts as a modelling book at both introductory and intermediate levels, specifically targeting students and researchers who are interested in and wish to learn computable general equilibrium modelling. The authors offer insightful analysis of Singapore's tourism industry and provide both students and researchers with a guide on how to apply general equilibrium models to actual economic data and draw accurate conclusions.

This book explores new topics in modern research on empirical corporate finance and applied accounting, especially the econometric analysis of microdata. Dubbed "financial microeconometrics" by the author, this concept unites both methodological and applied approaches. The book examines how quantitative methods can be applied in corporate finance and accounting research in order to predict companies getting into financial distress. Presented in a clear and straightforward manner, it also suggests methods for linking corporate governance to financial performance, and discusses what the determinants of accounting disclosures are. Exploring these questions by way of numerous practical examples, this book is intended for researchers, practitioners and students who are not yet familiar with the variety of approaches available for data analysis and microeconometrics. "This book on financial microeconometrics is an excellent starting point for research in corporate finance and accounting. In my view, the text is positioned between a narrative and a scientific treatise. It is based on a vast amount of literature but is not overloaded with formulae. My appreciation of financial microeconometrics has very much increased. The book is well organized and properly written. I enjoyed reading it." Wolfgang Marty, Senior Investment Strategist, AgaNola AG

Herbert Scarf is a highly esteemed distinguished American economist. He is internationally famous for his early epoch-making work on optimal inventory policies and his highly influential study with Andrew Clark on optimal policies for a multi-echelon inventory problem, which initiated the important and flourishing field of supply chain management. Equally, he has gained world recognition for his classic study on the stability of the Walrasian price adjustment processes and his fundamental analysis on the relationship between the core and the set of competitive equilibria (the so-called Edgeworth conjecture). Further achievements include his remarkable sufficient condition for the existence of a core in non-transferable utility games and general exchange economies, his seminal paper with Lloyd Shapley on housing markets, and his pioneering study on increasing returns and models of production in the presence of indivisibilities. All in all, however, the name of Scarf is always remembered as a synonym for the computation of economic equilibria and fixed points. In the early 1960s he invented a path-breaking technique for computing equilibrium prices. This work has generated a major research field in economics termed Applied General Equilibrium Analysis and a corresponding area in operations research known as Simplicial Fixed Point Methods. This book comprises all his research articles and consists of four volumes. This volume collects Herbert Scarf's papers in the area of Economics and Game Theory.

Econometric Model Specification reviews and extends the author's papers on consistent model specification testing and semi-nonparametric modeling and inference. This book consists of two parts. The first part discusses consistent tests of functional form of regression and conditional distribution models, including a consistent test of the martingale difference hypothesis for time series regression errors. In the second part, semi-nonparametric modeling and inference for duration and auction models are considered, as well as a general theory of the consistency and asymptotic normality of semi-nonparametric sieve maximum likelihood estimators. Moreover, this volume also contains addendums and appendices that provide detailed proofs and extensions of all the results. It is uniquely self-contained and is a useful source for students and researchers interested in model specification issues.

The objective of this book is the discussion and the practical illustration of techniques used in applied macroeconometrics. There are currently three competing approaches: the LSE (London School of Economics) approach, the VAR approach, and the intertemporal optimization/Real Business Cycle approach. This book discusses and illustrates the empirical research strategy of these three alternative approaches, pairing them with extensive discussions and replications of the relevant empirical work. Common benchmarks are used to evaluate the alternative approaches.

Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.

This book presents the methodology and applications of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in measuring productivity, efficiency and effectiveness in Financial Services firms such as banks, bank branches, stock markets, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance firms, credit unions, risk tolerance, and corporate failure prediction. Financial service DEA research includes banking; insurance businesses; hedge, pension and mutual funds; and credit unions. Significant business transactions among financial service organizations such as bank mergers and acquisitions and valuation of IPOs have also been the focus of DEA research. The book looks at the range of DEA uses for financial services by presenting prior studies, examining the current capabilities reflected in the most recent research, and projecting future new uses of DEA in finance related applications.

'Overall, the book is highly technical, including full mathematical proofs of the results stated. Potential readers are post-graduate students or researchers in Quantitative Risk Management willing to have a manual with the state-of-the-art on portfolio diversification and risk aggregation with heavy tails, including the fundamental theorems as well as collateral (but most useful) results on majorization and copula theory.'Quantitative Finance This book offers a unified approach to the study of crises, large fluctuations, dependence and contagion effects in economics and finance. It covers important topics in statistical modeling and estimation, which combine the notions of copulas and heavy tails - two particularly valuable tools of today's research in economics, finance, econometrics and other fields - in order to provide a new way of thinking about such vital problems as diversification of risk and propagation of crises through financial markets due to contagion phenomena, among others. The aim is to arm today's economists with a toolbox suited for analyzing multivariate data with many outliers and with arbitrary dependence patterns. The methods and topics discussed and used in the book include, in particular, majorization theory, heavy-tailed distributions and copula functions - all applied to study robustness of economic, financial and statistical models, and estimation methods to heavy tails and dependence.

There are many problems regarding poverty, inequality and growth in developing countries in Asia and Africa. Policy makers at the national level and at international institutions such as the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and others have implemented various policies in order to decrease poverty and inequality. This book provides empirical observations on Asian countries and Africa. Each chapter provides theoretical and empirical analysis on regional case studies with an emphasis on policy implications. The book will be of use to many who wish to assess and improve policies in developing countries and mitigate poverty and inequality, and stimulate growth, by drawing on relevant empirical research and economic theories. Clearly, there have been numerous policy failures and the book aims to provide a basis for improving policies and outcomes based on relevant empirical observations.

The book is a collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world's leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with or studied with (or both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Granger's work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.

This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.

This book brings together cutting edge contributions in the fields of international economics, micro theory, welfare economics and econometrics, with contributions from Donald R. Davis, Avinash K. Dixit, Tadashi Inoue, Ronald W. Jones, Dale W. Jorgenson, K. Rao Kadiyala, Murray C. Kemp, Kenneth M. Kletzer, Anne O. Krueger, Mukul Majumdar, Daniel McFadden, Lionel McKenzie, James R. Melvin, James C. Moore, Takashi Negishi, Yoshihiko Otani, Raymond Riezman, Paul A. Samuelson, Joaquim Silvestre and Marie Thursby.

This volume focuses on econometric models that confront estimation and inference issues occurring when sample data exhibit spatial or spatiotemporal dependence. This can arise when decisions or transactions of economic agents are related to the behaviour of nearby agents. Dependence of one observation on neighbouring observations violates the typical assumption of independence made in regression analysis. Contributions to this volume by leading experts in the field of spatial econometrics provide details regarding estimation and inference based on a variety of econometric methods including, maximum likelihood, Bayesian and hierarchical Bayes, instrumental variables, generalized method of moments, maximum entropy, non-parametric and spatiotemporal. An overview of spatial econometric models and methods is provided that places contributions to this volume in the context of existing literature. New methods for estimation and inference are introduced in this volume and Monte Carlo comparisons of existing methods are described. In addition to topics involving estimation and inference, approaches to model comparison and selection are set forth along with new tests for spatial dependence and functional form. These methods are applied to a variety of economic problems including: hedonic real estate pricing, agricultural harvests and disaster payments, voting behaviour, identification of edge cities, and regional labour markets. The volume is supported by a web site containing data sets and software to implement many of the methods described by contributors to this volume.

The aim of this book is an applied and unified introduction into parametric, non- and semiparametric regression that closes the gap between theory and application. The most important models and methods in regression are presented on a solid formal basis, and their appropriate application is shown through many real data examples and case studies. Availability of (user-friendly) software has been a major criterion for the methods selected and presented. Thus, the book primarily targets an audience that includes students, teachers and practitioners in social, economic, and life sciences, as well as students and teachers in statistics programs, and mathematicians and computer scientists with interests in statistical modeling and data analysis. It is written on an intermediate mathematical level and assumes only knowledge of basic probability, calculus, and statistics. The most important definitions and statements are concisely summarized in boxes. Two appendices describe required matrix algebra, as well as elements of probability calculus and statistical inference.

Over the course of his professional life, John Maynard Keynes altered his views from free trade in the classical tradition to restricted trade. At the end of his career, his position on the issue was still not categorically resolved even though the evidence seems to suggest that he moved closer to a system of managed trade. In that model, nations would not leave their foreign trade interests open to the vagaries of the free market, but rather exercise some degree of control over them just as they would their domestic economies. Nevertheless, there is no general agreement among economists as to whether Keynes ended his career in the camp of the free traders or aligned himself with the protectionists. John Maynard Keynes: Free Trader or Protectionist? seeks an answer to this question by analyzing Keynes' own views on this issue, as stated in his major publications, letters, speeches, testimony before government bodies, newspaper articles, participation in conferences, and other sources. Through this detailed review of what Keynes himself had to say on the issue as opposed to what others have alleged, this book strives to make a significant contribution to the resolution of this issue.

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the fruitful achievement of China's Quantitative Economics during the past 30 years, assembling pioneering contributions of prominent quantitative economists in China. It chronicles significant events and the detailed evolution of Quantitative Economics in China. This well-organized book is a must-have for scholars to get a full picture of the status quo, and identify possible research gaps.

What happens to risk as the economic horizon goes to zero and risk is seen as an exposure to a change in state that may occur instantaneously at any time? All activities that have been undertaken statically at a fixed finite horizon can now be reconsidered dynamically at a zero time horizon, with arrival rates at the core of the modeling. This book, aimed at practitioners and researchers in financial risk, delivers the theoretical framework and various applications of the newly established dynamic conic finance theory. The result is a nonlinear non-Gaussian valuation framework for risk management in finance. Risk-free assets disappear and low risk portfolios must pay for their risk reduction with negative expected returns. Hedges may be constructed to enhance value by exploiting risk interactions. Dynamic trading mechanisms are synthesized by machine learning algorithms. Optimal exposures are designed for option positioning simultaneously across all strikes and maturities.

This book offers a fresh perspective on the early history of macroeconomics, by examining the macro-dynamic models developed from the late 1920s to the late 1940s, and their treatment of economic instability. It first explores the differences and similarities between the early mathematical business cycle models developed by Ragnar Frisch, Michal Kalecki, Jan Tinbergen and others, which were presented at meetings of the Econometric Society and discussed in private correspondence. By doing so, it demonstrates the diversity of models representing economic phenomena and especially economic crises and instability. Jan Tinbergen emerged as one of the most original and pivotal economists of this period, before becoming a leader of the macro-econometric movement, a role for which he is better known. His emphasis on economic policy was later mirrored in the United States in Paul Samuelson's early work on business cycles analysis, which, drawing on Alvin Hansen, aimed at interpreting the 1937-1938 recession. The authors then show that the subsequent shift in Samuelson's approach, from the study of business cycle trajectories to the comparison of equilibrium points, provided a response to the econometricians' critique of early Keynesian models. In the early 1940s, Samuelson was able to link together the tools that had been developed by the econometricians and the economic content that was at the heart of the so-called Keynesian revolution. The problem then shifted from business cycle trajectories to the disequilibrium between economic aggregates, and the issues raised by the global stability of full employment equilibrium. This was addressed by Oskar Lange, who presented an analysis of market coordination failures, and Lawrence Klein, Samuelson's first PhD student, who pursued empirical work in this direction. The book highlights the various visions and approaches that were embedded in these macro-dynamic models, and that their originality is of interest to today's model builders as well as to students and anyone interested in how new economic ideas come to be developed.

The past ten years for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries have registered an extreme deterioration in at least one measure of social and economic welfare: earnings inequality, unemployment, and poverty. The combination of slow economic growth, population explosion, and decline in labor productivity led to the reversal of the economic gains achieved during the economic boom in the 1970s. In contrast to that period, growth per capita (GDP) in 1980-1991 for Arab countries was -0.2%. Several indicators point to the extent of the problems faced today by the region's countries. Although the percentage of poverty declined for the majority of the regions in the world in 1985-1990, it has increased in the MENA region.

The purpose of this volume is to address the conditions of earnings inequality, unemployment, and poverty in the MENA region and the problems associated with these factors; to determine the state and magnitude of these problems through various country studies; and to provide solutions to alleviate the negative conditions facing developing economies, with special emphasis on the MENA countries.

This new book will be welcomed by econometricians and students of econometrics everywhere. Introducing discrete time modelling techniques and bridging the gap between economics and econometric literature, this ambitious book is sure to be an invaluable resource for all those to whom the terms unit roots, cointegration and error correction forms, chaos theory and random walks are recognisable if not yet fully understood.

This book provides an economic and econometric analysis of real estate investment and real estate market behaviour. Peijie Wang examines fluctuations in the real estate business to reveal the mechanisms governing the interactions between the industry and other sectors of the economy.

Although interest in spatial regression models has surged in recent years, a comprehensive, up-to-date text on these approaches does not exist. Filling this void, Introduction to Spatial Econometrics presents a variety of regression methods used to analyze spatial data samples that violate the traditional assumption of independence between observations. It explores a wide range of alternative topics, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, various types of spatial regression specifications, and applied modeling situations involving different circumstances. Leaders in this field, the authors clarify the often-mystifying phenomenon of simultaneous spatial dependence. By presenting new methods, they help with the interpretation of spatial regression models, especially ones that include spatial lags of the dependent variable. The authors also examine the relationship between spatiotemporal processes and long-run equilibrium states that are characterized by simultaneous spatial dependence. MATLAB (R) toolboxes useful for spatial econometric estimation are available on the authors' websites. This work covers spatial econometric modeling as well as numerous applied illustrations of the methods. It encompasses many recent advances in spatial econometric models-including some previously unpublished results.

This textbook concisely covers math knowledge and tools useful for business and economics studies, including matrix analysis, basic math concepts, general optimization, dynamic optimization, and ordinary differential equations. Basic math tools, particularly optimization tools, are essential for students in a business school, especially for students in economics, accounting, finance, management, and marketing. It is a standard practice nowadays that a graduate program in a business school requires a short and intense course in math just before or immediately after the students enter the program. Math in Economics aims to be the main textbook for such a crash course.The 1st edition was published by People's University Publisher, China. This new edition contains an added chapter on Probability Theory along with changes and improvements throughout.

This textbook concisely covers math knowledge and tools useful for business and economics studies, including matrix analysis, basic math concepts, general optimization, dynamic optimization, and ordinary differential equations. Basic math tools, particularly optimization tools, are essential for students in a business school, especially for students in economics, accounting, finance, management, and marketing. It is a standard practice nowadays that a graduate program in a business school requires a short and intense course in math just before or immediately after the students enter the program. Math in Economics aims to be the main textbook for such a crash course.The 1st edition was published by People's University Publisher, China. This new edition contains an added chapter on Probability Theory along with changes and improvements throughout.

The major methodological task for modern economists has been to establish the testability of models. Too often, however, methodological assumptions can make a model virtually impossible to test even under ideal conditions, yet few theorists have examined the requirements and problems of assuring testability in economics. In The Methodology of Economic Model Building, first published in 1989, Lawrence Boland presents the results of a research project that spanned more than twenty years. He examines how economists have applied the philosophy of Karl Popper, relating methodological debates about falsifiability to wider discussions about the truth status of models in natural and social sciences. He concludes that model building in economics reflects more the methodological prescriptions of the economist Paul Samuelson than Popper's 'falsificationism'. This title will prove invaluable to both students and researchers, and represents a substantial contribution to current debates about the scientific status of economics.