Technology Commercialization: DEA and Related Analytical Methods for Evaluating The Use and Implementation of Technical Innovation examines both general Research & Development commercialization and targeted new product innovation. New product development is a major occupation of the technical sector of the global economy and is viewed in many ways as a means of economic stability for a business, an industry, and a country. The heart of the book is a detailing of the analytical methods-with special, but not exclusive emphasis on DEA methods-for evaluating and ranking the most promising R & D and technical innovation being developed. The sponsors of the research and development may involve universities, countries, industries, and corporations-all of these sources are covered in the book. In addition, the trade-off of environmental problems vis-a-vis new product development is discussed in a section of the book. Sten Thore (editor and author) has woven together the chapter contributions by a strong group of international researchers into a book that has characteristics of both a monograph and a unified edited volume of well-written papers in DEA, technology evaluation, R&D, and environmental economics. Finally, the use of DEA as an evaluation method for product innovation is an important new development in the field of R&D commercialization.

Macroeconomic Policy in the Canadian Economy investigates developments in Canada over the last forty years, using recent advances in the field of applied econometrics. In particular, the book analyzes the theoretical foundations of public sector activities and evaluates the several theories of government growth. Issues of convergence are also investigated as they manifest themselves in per capita income across Canadian provinces, and as to how successful government income equalization policies have been in furthering such convergence. Moreover, the openness of the Canadian economy is investigated in terms of the importance of exports on GDP growth and of its participation in the world of an internationally integrated capital market. The book also analyzes monetary policy issues and investigates the role of monetary aggregates and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Finally, it addresses the issue of the existence or not of electoral and partisan cycles in Canada, by incorporating both fiscal and monetary principles and applying them to the lively world of Canadian politics.

Empirical Studies In Applied Economics presents nine previously unpublished analyses in monograph form. In this work, the topics are presented so that each chapter stands on its own. The emphasis is on the applications but attention is also given to the econometric and statistical issues for advanced readers. Econometric methods include multivariate regression analysis, limited dependent variable analysis, and other maximum likelihood techniques. The empirical topics include the measurement of competition and market power in natural gas transportation markets and in the pharmaceutical market for chemotherapy drugs. Additional topics include an empirical analysis of NFL football demand, the accuracy of an econometric model for mail demand, and the allocation of police services in rural Alaska. Other chapters consider the valuation of technology patents and the determination of patent scope, duration, and reasonable royalty, and the reaction of financial markets to health scares in the fast-food industry. Finally, two chapters are devoted to the theory and testing of synergistic health effects from the combined exposure to asbestos and cigarette smoking.

Hospital Cost Analysis provides an overview of theoretical developments in the economic analysis of production and costs in the multiproduct firm, and discusses these developments. Following a lucid explanation of the concepts of jointness, input/output separability and returns to scale, a detailed discussion of the concept measurement and classification of hospital output is provided. A fundamental dilemma confronting economists interested in estimating hospital cost functions is highlighted, viz. the trade-off between flexibility in functional form and homogeneity within hospital output categories. Empirical results on the effects of case mix, scale and utilisation, public/private ownership, and the centralised administration of hospital systems on hospital costs are presented. The implications of hospital cost analysis for public policy with respect to hospital payment schemes, including schemes based on Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), are also considered. This book brings together the literature on hospital cost analysis with theoretical developments in the analysis of the multiproduct cost functions. It will be of considerable interest to teachers and students of health economics and health policy advisers interested in the determinants of hospital costs and the design of hospital payment schemes.

Quantitative Methods for Portfolio Analysis provides practical models and methods for the quantitative analysis of financial asset prices, construction of various portfolios, and computer-assisted trading systems. In particular, this book is required reading for: (1) `Quants' (quantitatively-inclined analysts) in financial industries; (2) financial engineers in investment banks, securities companies, derivative-trading companies, software houses, etc., who are developing portfolio trading systems; (3) graduate students and specialists in the areas of finance, business, economics, statistics, financial engineering; and (4) investors who are interested in Japanese financial markets. Throughout the book the emphasis is placed on the originality and usefulness of models and methods for the construction of portfolios and investment decision making, and examples are provided to demonstrate, with practical analysis, models for Japanese financial markets.

4 UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS AND PRIVATE RESEARCH . . . . . . . . 45 4. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4. 2. THE INNOVATION, PRIVATE RESEARCH AND UNIVERSITY RESEARCH DATA . . . . 46 4. 3. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 4. 4. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY R&D ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . 55 4. 5. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AND ITS RELATION TO INNOVATIONS AND INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 4. 6. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS: STATE LEVEL ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . 67 5. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 5. 2. STATE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS: SUMMARY OF EARLIER FINDINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 5. 3. ALTERNATIVE INDICATORS OF LOCAL UNIVERSITY KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS 72 EMPIRICAL RESULT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 5. 4. 5. 5. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 6 THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF UNIVERSITY EFFECTS: MSA LEVEL ANALySIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 6. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 6. 2. THE MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 6. 2. ESTIMATION ISSUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 6. 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 6. 4. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 7 FACTORS GOVERNING UNIVERSITY EFFECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 7. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 7. 2. THE EMPIRICAL MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 7. 3. REGRESSION RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 7. 4. SPATIAL VARIATION IN THE INTENSITY OF UNIVERSITY KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 7. 5. THE "CRITICAL MASS" OF AGGLOMERATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 7. 6. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 APPENDIX A: DEFINING HIGH TECHNOLOGY FOR THE EMPIRICAL STUDY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 APPENDIX B: VARIABLE DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 INDEX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 List of Tables Table 2. 1.

Mathematical economics uses mathematical tools and reasoning to describe and explain economic reality. At the core of mathematical economics is general equilibrium theory. Static and Dynamic Aspects of General Disequilibrium Theory describes and analyses various general equilibrium models, treating theory from an axiomatic point of view, which may lead to a deeper understanding of problems, may help to avoid incorrect reasoning, and may improve communication within the economic science. This volume consists of four parts, each of which is self-contained. Part I deals with the mathematical and economic preliminaries. Part II considers the static aspects of disequilibrium theory. Part III determines price rigidities endogenously. Finally, Part IV deals with dynamic aspects of disequilibrium theory.

In this book, we synthesize a rich and vast literature on econometric challenges associated with accounting choices and their causal effects. Identi?cation and es- mation of endogenous causal effects is particularly challenging as observable data are rarely directly linked to the causal effect of interest. A common strategy is to employ logically consistent probability assessment via Bayes' theorem to connect observable data to the causal effect of interest. For example, the implications of earnings management as equilibrium reporting behavior is a centerpiece of our explorations. Rather than offering recipes or algorithms, the book surveys our - periences with accounting and econometrics. That is, we focus on why rather than how. The book can be utilized in a variety of venues. On the surface it is geared - ward graduate studies and surely this is where its roots lie. If we're serious about our studies, that is, if we tackle interesting and challenging problems, then there is a natural progression. Our research addresses problems that are not well - derstood then incorporates them throughout our curricula as our understanding improves and to improve our understanding (in other words, learning and c- riculum development are endogenous). For accounting to be a vibrant academic discipline, we believe it is essential these issues be confronted in the undergr- uate classroom as well as graduate studies. We hope we've made some progress with examples which will encourage these developments.

Parallel Algorithms for Linear Models provides a complete and detailed account of the design, analysis and implementation of parallel algorithms for solving large-scale linear models. It investigates and presents efficient, numerically stable algorithms for computing the least-squares estimators and other quantities of interest on massively parallel systems. The monograph is in two parts. The first part consists of four chapters and deals with the computational aspects for solving linear models that have applicability in diverse areas. The remaining two chapters form the second part, which concentrates on numerical and computational methods for solving various problems associated with seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) and simultaneous equations models. The practical issues of the parallel algorithms and the theoretical aspects of the numerical methods will be of interest to a broad range of researchers working in the areas of numerical and computational methods in statistics and econometrics, parallel numerical algorithms, parallel computing and numerical linear algebra. The aim of this monograph is to promote research in the interface of econometrics, computational statistics, numerical linear algebra and parallelism.

The three decades which have followed the publication of Heinz Neudecker's seminal paper Some Theorems on Matrix Differentiation with Special Reference to Kronecker Products' in the Journal of the American Statistical Association (1969) have witnessed the growing influence of matrix analysis in many scientific disciplines. Amongst these are the disciplines to which Neudecker has contributed directly - namely econometrics, economics, psychometrics and multivariate analysis. This book aims to illustrate how powerful the tools of matrix analysis have become as weapons in the statistician's armoury. The majority of its chapters are concerned primarily with theoretical innovations, but all of them have applications in view, and some of them contain extensive illustrations of the applied techniques. This book will provide research workers and graduate students with a cross-section of innovative work in the fields of matrix methods and multivariate statistical analysis. It should be of interest to students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects which rely upon modern methods of statistical analysis. The contributors to the book are themselves practitioners of a wide range of subjects including econometrics, psychometrics, educational statistics, computation methods and electrical engineering, but they find a common ground in the methods which are represented in the book. It is envisaged that the book will serve as an important work of reference and as a source of inspiration for some years to come.

This book provides a framework for analyzing and forecasting a variety of mineral and energy markets and related industries. Such modeling activity has been at the forefront of the economic and engineering professions for some time, having received a major stimulus fC?llowing the first oil price shock in 1973. Since that time, other shocks have affected these markets and industries, causing disequilibrium economic adjustments which are difficult to analyze and to predict. Moreover, geopolitics remains an important factor which can destabilize crude oil markets and associated refining industries. Mineral and energy modeling, consequently, has become a major interest of energy-related corporations, mining and drilling companies, metal manufacturers, public utilities, investment banks,. national government agencies and international organizations. This book hopes to advance mineral and energy modeling as follows: (1) The modeling process is presented sequentially by leading the model builder from model specification, estimation, simulation, and validation to practical model applications, including explaining history, analyzing policy, and market and price forecasting; (2) New developments in modeling approaches are presented which encompass econometric market and industry models, spatial equilibrium and programming models, optimal resource depletion models, input-output models, economic sector models, and macro oriented energy interaction models (including computable general equilibrium); (3) The verification and application of the models is considered not only individually but also in relation to the performance of alternative modeling approaches; and (4) The modeling framework includes a perspective on new directions, so that the present model building advice will extend into the future.

Coordination is extremely important in economic, political, and social life. The concept of economic equilibrium is based on the coordination of producers and consumers in buying and selling. This book reviews the topic of coordination from an economic, theoretical standpoint. The aim of this volume is twofold: first, the book contributes to the ongoing research on the economics of coordination; and second, it disseminates results and encourages interest in the topic. The volume contains original research on coordination including general game-theoretic questions, particular coordination issues within specific fields of economics (i.e. industrial organization, international trade, and macroeconomics), and experimental research.

These three volumes contain an account of Professor Henri Theil's distinguished career as a leader, advisor, administrator, teacher, and researcher in economics and econometrics. The books also contain a selection of his contributions in many areas, such as econometrics, demand analysis, information theory, forecasting, statistics, economic policy analysis and management science. To date he has contributed over 250 articles in refereed journals and chapters in books, and 15 books, three of which became citation classics. His books and articles have appeared in (and have been translated into) many languages, such as Polish, Russian, Dutch, English, French, German, Hungarian, Italian and Japanese. This collection provides excellent reference material to researchers and graduate students working in a variety of disciplines, such as econometrics, economics, management science, operations research, and statistics. Moreover, Professor Theil's career serves as a role model for younger generations of scholars, both in terms of his approach to research and his commitment to his profession. Professor Theil's distinguished career as an academic began in 1953 when he was appointed Professor of Econometrics at the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam (now Erasmus University). Three years later he founded the Econometric Institute in Rotterdam and served as its first director until 1966, when he accepted a joint appointment at the Graduate School of Business and Department of Economics, University of Chicago, U.S.A. In 1981, Theil was appointed to the McKethan-Matherly Eminent Chair at the Graduate School of Business Administration of the University of Florida in Gainesville. Theil has received many international honours including four honorary degrees.

This conference brought together an international group of fisheries economists from academia, business, government, and inter-governmentalagencies, to consider a coordinated project to build an econometric model of the world trade in groundfish. A number of the conference participants had just spent up to six weeks at Memorial University of Newfoundland working and preparing papers on the project. This volume presents the papers that these scholars produced, plus additional papers prepared by other conference participants. In addition, various lectures and discussionswhich were transcribed from tapes made of the proceedings are included. The introductory essay explains the genesis of the conference, describes the approach taken to modelling the groundfish trade, very briefly summarizes the technical papers, and describes future plans. The project is continuing as planned, and a second conference was held in St. John's in August 1990. The conference was a NATO Advanced Research Workshop and we wish to thank the ScientificAffairs Division ofNATO for their financial support. Additional financial support was received from the Canadian Centre for Fisheries Innovation in St. John's, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans of the Government of Canada, the Department of Fisheries of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Memorial University of Newfoundland and Air Nova; we acknowledge with appreciation their help.

Since 1993 a major research programme, "Stochastic Decision Analysis in Forest Management" has been running at Department of Economics and Natural Resources, The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University (KVL), Copenhagen, in collaboration with Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Copenhagen (KU). The research is funded by the two Universities; The Danish Agricultural and Veterinary Research Council; The Danish Research Academy; The National Forest and Nature Agency; and Danish Informatics Network in the Agricultural Sciepces (DINA). A first international workshop in the research programme was held 5 - 8 August, 1996 at Eldrupgaard, Denmark, within the frameworkofacollaborationagreementbetween University of California at Berkeley (UCB) and the Danish Universities, and funded by The Danish Research Academy and the L0venholm Foundation. Having participated in the workshop, Professor Peter Berck (UCB) suggested that the papers be published along with selected papers in the same scientific field, i.e. mainly cointegration analysis of time series in forestry. The editors express their sincere appreciations to the many persons who have contributed to the realisation of the present book: participants in the research programme and the workshop, in particular Professors S0ren Johansen (KU) and Peter Berck (UCB); authors outside the programme/workshop; reviewers of the papers not previously published, in particuler Associate Professors Niels Haldrup (Aarhus University) and Henrik Hansen (KVL); and finally Mrs Mette Riis and Lizzie Rohde who did the tedious work of giving the papers a uniform style. Copenhagen, October 1998.

Experiences with Financial Liberalization provides a broad spectrum of policy experiences relating to financial liberalization around the globe since the 1960s. There is a sizable body of theoretical and aggregative empirical literature in this area, but there is little work documenting and analyzing the experiences of individual countries and/or sets of countries. This book is divided into four parts by geographical region - Africa, Asia and Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Aggregative econometric studies cannot substitute for country-wide studies in allowing the researcher to draw lessons for the future, and this volume adds to this relatively small body of literature.

Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.

Control theory methods in economics have historically developed over three phases. The first involved basically the feedback control rules in a deterministic framework which were applied in macrodynamic models for analyzing stabilization policies. The second phase raised the issues of various types of inconsistencies in deterministic optimal control models due to changing information and other aspects of stochasticity. Rational expectations models have been extensively used in this plan to resolve some of the inconsistency problems. The third phase has recently focused on the various aspects of adaptive control. where stochasticity and information adaptivity are introduced in diverse ways e.g . risk adjustment and risk sensitivity of optimal control, recursive updating rules via Kalman filtering and weighted recursive least squares and variable structure control methods in nonlinear framework. Problems of efficient econometric estimation of optimal control models have now acquired significant importance. This monograph provides an integrated view of control theory methods, synthesizing the three phases from feedback control to stochastic control and from stochastic control to adaptive control. Aspects of econometric estimation are strongly emphasized here, since these are very important in empirical applications in economics."

Structural Funds: Growth, Employment and the Environment is a book on the role of transfers designed for assisting sustainable development of less developed regions within the European Union. The book places special emphasis on the future path of the Greek economy and discusses likely outcomes -related directly to the impact of these transfers- in: * Growth and macroeconomic convergence * Employment in key sectors of the economy * Energy demand and its environmental aspect The book uses macroeconomic modelling and modern applied econometric techniques to analyze these issues, thus offering a coherent methodological framework for their presentation.To this extent, Structural Funds: Growth, Employment and the Environment can serve to: * Academic researchers and economists in recipient countries who can gain a better understanding of how national authorities can best design and implement the strategic allocation and utilization of these funds to maximize the benefits for the domestic economy * Policymakers in the European Union by offering a sound and rigorously elaborated treatment which can be applied as an estimation and comparison tool for the effects of Structural Funds both at the national and the international level * Economists in Eastern European countries which are at the pre-accession stage and will be eligible for this type of transfers in the near future.

Agent-Based Computer Simulation of Dichotomous Economic Growth reports a project in agent-based computer stimulation of processes of economic growth in a population of boundedly rational learning agents. The study is an exercise in comparative simulation. That is, the same family of growth models will be simulated under different assumptions about the nature of the learning process and details of the production and growth processes. The purpose of this procedure is to establish a relationship between the assumptions and the simulation results. The study brings together a number of theoretical and technical developments, only some of which may be familiar to any particular reader. In this first chapter, some issues in economic growth are reviewed and the objectives of the study are outlined. In the second chapter, the simulation techniques are introduced and illustrated with baseline simulations of boundedly rational learning processes that do not involve the complications of dealing with long-run economic growth. The third chapter sketches the consensus modern theory of economic growth which is the starting point for further study. In the fourth chapter, a family of steady growth models are simulated, bringing the simulation, growth and learning aspects of the study together. In subsequent chapters, variants on the growth model are explored in a similar way. The ninth chapter introduces trade, with a spacial trading model that is combined with the growth model in the tenth chapter. The book returns again and again to the key question: to what extent can the simulations `explain' the puzzles of economic growth, and particularly the key puzzle of dichotomization, by constructing growth and learning processes that produce the puzzling results? And just what assumptions of the simulations are most predictable associated with the puzzling results?

Investment is crucial to the development of a nations economy and welfare. In contrast to the situation in the United States, investment activity in Europe has been quite modest over the past few years. This volume gathers together a number of papers by prominent researchers in the field of investment. It provides an overview of recent developments in this area and presents new empirical findings on the determinants and implications of the investment process in European countries. Among the topics examined are the role played by taxation, uncertainty and the financial systems, as well as the relevance of corporate governance to the investment process. Two chapters are dedicated to infrastructure investment and foreign direct investment.

Imperfections and Behavior in Economic Organizations analyzes the organization of economic decision making in a contemporary setting. The contributors focus on two important aspects of this analysis. First, they address the issue of imperfect or incomplete information and communication in economic organizations and consider imperfections arising from the interaction of the market organization with its environment. Second, the issue of cooperation in a competitive environment is thoroughly analyzed and alternative social trade organizations are designed to dissipate the allocation problems that arise in these situations.

All former Soviet Union countries experience their past as a heavy burden. It led to the centralisation of scientific personnel, the separation of research from teaching at universities, and a concentration of certain branches of technology in different parts of the Union. This has given rise to a one-sided technology and science potential which frequently cannot be sufficiently supported due to a lack of adequate finance. Cooperation between the Baltic States themselves is often hampered by an exaggerated sense of national identity, and international cooperation can be made difficult by linguistic problems. A critical issue is finance. The Baltic States themselves are experiencing budgetary constraints, and the West is cutting back on funding. The analytical issues dealt with here include specific questions, such as in the sectors of energy policy, electrical equipment and electronics, and environmental considerations. The transfer of technology is also discussed, as is security: there is the possibility that science and scientific results can be obtained from the former Soviet Union at low cost by the criminal community.

In the late 1980s, as the empirical appeal of macro-economic exchange rate models began to fade, a few people including Professor Charles Goodhart at the London School of Economics and researchers at Olsen & Associates in Zurich, started to collect intra-daily exchange rate data. The resulting database provides new insight into the foreign exchange markets and thereby opens up previously unexplored avenues of research. Intra-Daily Exchange Rate Movements presents an extensive study of the Olsen & Associates database and is one of the first monographs in this exciting new area. This book aims to provide a systematic study of the characteristics of intra-daily exchange rate data as well as an empirical investigation into different approaches of modelling the exchange rate movements. First, the author describes empirical insights, which range from the distributional issues of exchange rate data to the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals and institutional characteristics. This leads to a survey of the main stylized facts. Using the O&A database, Guillaume then presents a systematic investigation of the empirical performance of three broad categories of models: macro-economic models using an extension of chaos theory, stochastic models including the GARCH and time-deformation models, and technical analysis. The book shows how these approaches can be used to model intra-daily exchange rate movements and highlights some of the pitfalls inherent in such an exercise. In an area where literature remains controversial, this book hopes to trigger further inquiries into the suitability of these different approaches to modelling.

PREFACE TO THE COLLECTION PREAMBLE The editors are pleased to present a selection of Henri Theil's contributions to economics and econometrics in three volumes. In Volume I we have provided an overview of Theil's contributions, a brief biography, an annotated bibliography of his research, and a selection of published and unpublished articles and chapters in books dealing with topics in econometrics. Volume II contains Theil's contributions to demand analysis and information theory. Volume III includes Theil's contributions in economic policy and forecasting, and management science. The selection of articles is intended to provide examples of Theil's many seminal and pathbreaking contributions to economics in such areas as econometrics, statistics, demand analysis, information theory, economic policy analysis, aggregation theory, forecasting, index numbers, management science, sociology, operations research, higher education and much more. The collection is also intended to serve as a tribute to him on the occasion of his 68th birthday: These three volumes also highlight some of Theil's contributions and service to the profession as a leader, advisor, administrator, teacher, and researcher. Theil's contributions, which encompass many disciplines, have been extensively cited both in scientific and professional journals. These citations often place Theil among 10 researchers (ranked according to number of times cited) in the world in various the top disciplines.