Although geometry has always aided intuition in econometrics, more recently differential geometry has become a standard tool in the analysis of statistical models, offering a deeper appreciation of existing methodologies and highlighting the essential issues which can be hidden in an algebraic development of a problem. Originally published in 2000, this volume was an early example of the application of these techniques to econometrics. An introductory chapter provides a brief tutorial for those unfamiliar with the tools of Differential Geometry. The topics covered in the following chapters demonstrate the power of the geometric method to provide practical solutions and insight into problems of econometric inference.

This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking and political crises, wars, pandemics, natural disasters etc., the book tests various theoretical models about the long and short run relationships between money and prices, money growth and inflation, money growth and real output, expected inflation; the output gap, fiscal policy, and inflation, using a number of parametric and non-parametric methods, and pays attention to specifications and estimations problems. In addition, it explains why policymakers in inflation - targeting countries, e.g. the U.S., failed to anticipate the recent sudden rise in inflation. And, it examines the fallibility of the Modern Monetary Theory's policy prescription to reduce inflation by raising taxes. This is a unique and innovative book, which will find an audience among students, academics, researchers, policy makers, analysts in corporations, private and central banks and international monetary institutions.

"Econometrics textbooks see their subject as a set of techniques; Magnus and Morgan see it as a set of practices. A combination of controlled experiment and anthropology of science, Methodology and Tacit Knowledge gives a rare inside view of how econometricians work, why econometrics is an art and not a set of simple recipes, and why, like all artists, econometricians differ in their techniques and finished works. This is economic methodology at its best." Kevin Hoover, University of California, Davis

"The tacit knowledge experiment was a highly commendable initiative. Its exploration of the theme of how knowledge is acquired and used in applied econometrics is unique and produced some fascinating insights into this process." Adrian Pagan, Australian National University

"It is rare, perhaps unique, to find leading empirical economists face the prospect of modelling the same phenomena, with the same data within the same limited time frame. A valuable and illuminating experiment in comparative research methodologies, made all the more provocative when compared to the excellent original study by Tobin." Richard Blundell, University College London

This book will be of considerable interest to economists and to econometricians concerned about the methodology of their own discipline, and will provide valuable material for researchers in science studies and for teachers of econometrics.

This proceedings volume presents new methods and applications in applied economics with special interest in advanced cross-section data estimation methodology. Featuring select contributions from the 2019 International Conference on Applied Economics (ICOAE 2019) held in Milan, Italy, this book explores areas such as applied macroeconomics, applied microeconomics, applied financial economics, applied international economics, applied agricultural economics, applied marketing and applied managerial economics. International Conference on Applied Economics (ICOAE) is an annual conference that started in 2008, designed to bring together economists from different fields of applied economic research, in order to share methods and ideas. Applied economics is a rapidly growing field of economics that combines economic theory with econometrics, to analyze economic problems of the real world, usually with economic policy interest. In addition, there is growing interest in the field of applied economics for cross-section data estimation methods, tests and techniques. This volume makes a contribution in the field of applied economic research by presenting the most current research. Featuring country specific studies, this book is of interest to academics, students, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in applied economics, econometrics and economic policy.

This book gives a thorough and systematic introduction to the latest research results about fuzzy decision-making method based on prospect theory. It includes eight chapters: Introduction, Intuitionistic fuzzy MADM based on prospect theory, QUALIFLEX based on prospect theory with probabilistic linguistic information, Group PROMETHEE based on prospect theory with hesitant fuzzy linguistic information, Prospect consensus with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy preference information, Improved TODIM based on prospect theory and the improved TODIM with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information, etc. This book is suitable for the researchers in the fields of fuzzy mathematics, operations research, behavioral science, management science and engineering, etc. It is also useful as a textbook for postgraduate and senior-year undergraduate students of the relevant professional institutions of higher learning.

This book focuses on the competitive situation and policy outlook of China's provincial economy in the 13th five-year period. It begins with a general evaluation report on the country's provincial comprehensive Economic Competitiveness, followed by analyses at the international, national and regional levels, industrial and enterprise levels. On the basis of domestic and international research findings, it further enriches our understanding of provincial competitiveness, analyzes the domestic and international situation, explores new changes, new norms, new situations and new challenges concerning China's provincial economy in the past few years, reveals the characteristics and relative differences of different types, defines their internal competitive strengths and weaknesses, and provides valuable theoretical content to guide decision-making.

The essays in this special volume survey some of the most recent advances in the global analysis of dynamic models for economics, finance and the social sciences. They deal in particular with a range of topics from mathematical methods as well as numerous applications including recent developments on asset pricing, heterogeneous beliefs, global bifurcations in complementarity games, international subsidy games and issues in economic geography. A number of stochastic dynamic models are also analysed. The book is a collection of essays in honour of the 60th birthday of Laura Gardini.

The search for symmetry is part of the fundamental scientific paradigm in mathematics and physics. Can this be valid also for economics? This book represents an attempt to explore this possibility. The behavior of price-taking producers, monopolists, monopsonists, sectoral market equilibria, behavior under risk and uncertainty, and two-person zero- and non-zero-sum games are analyzed and discussed under the unifying structure called the linear complementarity problem. Furthermore, the equilibrium problem allows for the relaxation of often-stated but unnecessary assumptions. This unifying approach offers the advantage of a better understanding of the structure of economic models. It also introduces the simplest and most elegant algorithm for solving a wide class of problems.

• Introduces the dynamics, principles and mathematics behind ten macroeconomic models allowing students to visualise the models and understand the economic intuition behind them. • Provides a step-by-step guide, and the necessary MATLAB codes, to allow readers to simulate and experiment with the models themselves.

The collapse in commodity prices since 1980 has been a major cause of the economic crisis in a large number of developing countries. This book investigates whether the commodity-producing countries, by joint action, could have prevented the price collapse by appropriate supply management. The analysis is focused on the markets for the tropical beverage crops: coffee, cocoa, and tea. Using new econometric models for each market, the impact of alternative supply management schemes on supply, consumption, prices, and export earnings is simulated for the later 1980s. The results indicate that supply management by producing countries would, indeed, have been a viable alternative to the `free market' approach favoured by the developed countries. This has important implications for current international commodity policy, and, in particular, for future joint action by producing countries to overcome persistent commodity surpluses as a complement to needed diversification.

Handbook of Field Experiments, Volume Two explains how to conduct experimental research, presents a catalog of research to date, and describes which areas remain to be explored. The new volume includes sections on field experiments in education in developing countries, how to design social protection programs, a section on how to combat poverty, and updates on data relating to the impact and determinants of health levels in low-income countries. Separating itself from circumscribed debates of specialists, this volume surpasses the many journal articles and narrowly-defined books written by practitioners. This ongoing series will be of particular interest to scholars working with experimental methods. Users will find results from politics, education, and more.

This book examines discrete dynamical systems with memory-nonlinear systems that exist extensively in biological organisms and financial and economic organizations, and time-delay systems that can be discretized into the memorized, discrete dynamical systems. It book further discusses stability and bifurcations of time-delay dynamical systems that can be investigated through memorized dynamical systems as well as bifurcations of memorized nonlinear dynamical systems, discretization methods of time-delay systems, and periodic motions to chaos in nonlinear time-delay systems. The book helps readers find analytical solutions of MDS, change traditional perturbation analysis in time-delay systems, detect motion complexity and singularity in MDS; and determine stability, bifurcation, and chaos in any time-delay system.

The series is designed to bring together those mathematicians who are seriously interested in getting new challenging stimuli from economic theories with those economists who are seeking effective mathematical tools for their research. A lot of economic problems can be formulated as constrained optimizations and equilibration of their solutions. Various mathematical theories have been supplying economists with indispensable machineries for these problems arising in economic theory. Conversely, mathematicians have been stimulated by various mathematical difficulties raised by economic theories.

This book presents the principles and methods for the practical analysis and prediction of economic and financial time series. It covers decomposition methods, autocorrelation methods for univariate time series, volatility and duration modeling for financial time series, and multivariate time series methods, such as cointegration and recursive state space modeling. It also includes numerous practical examples to demonstrate the theory using real-world data, as well as exercises at the end of each chapter to aid understanding. This book serves as a reference text for researchers, students and practitioners interested in time series, and can also be used for university courses on econometrics or computational finance.

Economic indicators provide invaluable insights into how different economies and financial markets are performing, enabling practitioners to adjust their investment strategies in order to gain knowledge about markets and to achieve higher returns. However, in order to make the right decisions, you must know how to interpret the relevant indicators. Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets provides this important guidance. The first and second part of Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets focuses on the short-term analysis, explaining exactly what the indicators are, why they are significant, where and when they are published, and how reliable they are. In the third part, author Bernd Krampen highlights medium and long-term economic trends: It is shown how some previously discussed and additional market indicators like stocks, bond yields, commodities can be employed as basis for forecasting both GDP growth and inflation. This includes the estimation of possible future recessions. In the fourth part the predominantly good forecast properties of sentiment indicators are illustrated examining the real estate market, which is rounded up by an introduction into psychology and Behavioural Finance providing further tips and tricks in analysing financial markets. Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets is an invaluable resource for investors, strategists, policymakers, students, and private investors worldwide who want to understand the true meaning of the latest economic trends to make the best decisions for future profits on financial markets.

Contemporary economists, when analyzing economic behavior of people, need to use the diversity of research methods and modern ways of discovering knowledge. The increasing popularity of using economic experiments requires the use of IT tools and quantitative methods that facilitate the analysis of the research material obtained as a result of the experiments and the formulation of correct conclusions. This proceedings volume presents problems in contemporary economics and provides innovative solutions using a range of quantitative and experimental tools. Featuring selected contributions presented at the 2018 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics Conference (CMEE 2018), this book provides a modern economic perspective on such important issues as: sustainable development, consumption, production, national wealth, the silver economy, behavioral finance, economic and non-economic factors determining the behavior of household members, consumer preferences, social campaigns, and neuromarketing. International case studies are also offered.

The Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 left the entire world in a state of shock. The international community was unable to fathom how a major economic power, with one of the most extensive natural disaster preparedness programs in the world, could be laid bare to such destruction. Even other highly developed countries began questioning their own abilities to handle natural disasters. Different nations have faced disasters of varying intensity throughout history, and it is in the best interests of the global community to share experiences and wisdom in order to minimize damage wrought by future catastrophes.
Based on conference proceedings presented at The Chinese University of Hong Kong in November 2012, Natural Disaster and Reconstruction in Asian Economies offers leading insight into and viewpoints on disasters from scholars and journalists working in Japan, China, the United States, and Southeast Asia. Yau Shuk-ting focuses on a broader scope of disasters, such as political, economic, social, cultural, and environmental crises, as well as psychological traumas. This work gathers together international wisdom from a variety of perspectives in the hope that nations will be better able to manage future disasters and their economic and cultural fallout.

Metrology is the study of measurement science. Although classical economists have emphasized the importance of measurement per se, the majority of economics-based writings on the topic have taken the form of government reports related to the activities of specific national metrology laboratories. This book is the first systematic study of measurement activity at a national metrology laboratory, and the laboratory studied is the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) within the U.S. Department of Commerce. The primary objective of the book is to emphasize for academic and policy audiences the economic importance of measurement not only as an area of study but also as a tool for sustaining technological advancement as an element of economic growth. Toward this goal, the book offers an overview of the economic benefits and consequences of measurement standards; an argument for public sector support of measurement standards; a historical perspective of the measurement activities at NIST; an empirical analysis of one particular measurement activity at NIST, namely calibration testing; and a roadmap for future research on the economics of metrology.

This book investigates why economics makes less visible progress over time than scientific fields with a strong practical component, where interactions with physical technologies play a key role. The thesis of the book is that the main impediment to progress in economics is "false feedback", which it defines as the false result of an empirical study, such as empirical evidence produced by a statistical model that violates some of its assumptions. In contrast to scientific fields that work with physical technologies, false feedback is hard to recognize in economics. Economists thus have difficulties knowing where they stand in their inquiries, and false feedback will regularly lead them in the wrong directions. The book searches for the reasons behind the emergence of false feedback. It thereby contributes to a wider discussion in the field of metascience about the practices of researchers when pursuing their daily business. The book thus offers a case study of metascience for the field of empirical economics. The main strength of the book are the numerous smaller insights it provides throughout. The book delves into deep discussions of various theoretical issues, which it illustrates by many applied examples and a wide array of references, especially to philosophy of science. The book puts flesh on complicated and often abstract subjects, particularly when it comes to controversial topics such as p-hacking. The reader gains an understanding of the main challenges present in empirical economic research and also the possible solutions. The main audience of the book are all applied researchers working with data and, in particular, those who have found certain aspects of their research practice problematic.

Volume 39A of Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology features a selection of essays presented at the 2019 Conference of the Latin American Society for the History of Economic Thought (ALAHPE), edited by Felipe Almeida and Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak, as well as a new general-research essay by Daniel Kuehn, an archival discovery by Katia Caldari and Luca Fiorito, and a book review by John Hall.

The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians reveals to be an effective approach to the analysis of insurance and financial problems, in particular in an operative perspective.

The Maf2006 conference, held at the University of Salerno in 2006, had precisely this purpose and the collection published here gathers some of the papers presented at the conference and successively worked out to this aim. They cover a wide variety of subjects in insurance and financial fields.

This book contains some of the results from the research project "Demand for Food in the Nordic Countries," which was initiated in 1988 by Professor Olof Bolin of the Agricultural University in Ultuna, Sweden and by Professor Karl Iohan Weckman, of the University of Helsinki, Finland. A pilot study was carried out by Bengt Assarsson, which in 1989 led to a successful application for a research grant from the NKJ (The Nordic Contact Body for Agricultural Research) through the national research councils for agricultural research in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We are very grateful to Olof Bolin and Karl Iohan Weckman, without whom this project would not have come about, and to the national research councils in the Nordic countries for the generous financial support we have received for this project. We have received comments and suggestions from many colleagues, and this has improved our work substantially. At the start of the project a reference group was formed, consisting of Professor Olof Bolin, Professor Anders Klevmarken, Agr. lie. Gert Aage Nielsen, Professor Karl Iohan Weckman and Cando oecon. Per Halvor Vale. Gert Aage Nielsen left the group early in the project for a position in Landbanken, and was replaced by Professor Lars Otto, while Per Halvor Vale soon joined the research staff. The reference group has given us useful suggestions and encouraged us in our work. Weare very grateful to them.

Microbehavioral Econometric Methods and Environmental Studies uses microeconometric methods to model the behavior of individuals, then demonstrates the modelling approaches in addressing policy needs. It links theory and methods with applications, and it incorporates data to connect individual choices and global environmental issues. This extension of traditional environmental economics presents modeling strategies and methodological techniques, then applies them to hands-on examples.Throughout the book, readers can access chapter summaries, problem sets, multiple household survey data with regard to agricultural and natural resources in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and India, and empirical results and solutions from the SAS software.

This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

Any enquiry into the nature, performance, role, demerits, growth, efficiency, or other aspects of financial services such as banking and insurance activities, requires rigorous estimates of their economic output, i.e., the economic contributions made by these firms, as well as by the industries as a whole. Accordingly, this book condenses several theoretical, methodological, empirical, and philosophical issues in conceptualizing, measuring, and empirically operationalizing the economic output of the banking and insurance industries. The analytical focus is on both Global and Emerging Markets perspectives. The book synthesizes applied and conceptual evidence to locate the chosen theme's analytical patterns, consensus, and disagreements. The selected subject matter is studied within the firm-level and aggregate settings, bringing literature of varied scopes together. Contributions from various international academics, practitioners, and policymakers further enrich the narrative. The book concludes with data-driven case studies that analyze the extent to which the critical performance parameters of the banking and insurance industries in the BRIICS economies - including estimation of aggregate industry-level partial factor productivities, total factor productivity, technical efficiency, and returns to scale - vary concerning alternate measures of their output. The present work also provides a brief note on the inputs measurement dimension, following which there is a discussion on the limitations, future scope, and conclusions. This work will be valuable for researchers and policymakers undertaking performance analyses related to banking and insurance activities. It shall provide them with the examination of a plethora of analytical options and related issues on the theory and praxis of output measurement, all finely organized into one single volume.