This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

This book presents an extensive survey of the theory and empirics of international parity conditions which are critical to our understanding of the linkages between world markets and the movement of interest and exchange rates across countries. The book falls into three parts dealing with the theory, methods of econometric testing and existing empirical evidence. Although it is intended to provide a consensus view on the subject, the authors also make some controversial propositions, particularly on the purchasing power parity conditions.

Herbert Scarf is a highly esteemed distinguished American economist. He is internationally famous for his early epoch-making work on optimal inventory policies and his highly influential study with Andrew Clark on optimal policies for a multi-echelon inventory problem, which initiated the important and flourishing field of supply chain management. Equally, he has gained world recognition for his classic study on the stability of the Walrasian price adjustment processes and his fundamental analysis on the relationship between the core and the set of competitive equilibria (the so-called Edgeworth conjecture). Further achievements include his remarkable sufficient condition for the existence of a core in non-transferable utility games and general exchange economies, his seminal paper with Lloyd Shapley on housing markets, and his pioneering study on increasing returns and models of production in the presence of indivisibilities. All in all, however, the name of Scarf is always remembered as a synonym for the computation of economic equilibria and fixed points. In the early 1960s he invented a path-breaking technique for computing equilibrium prices.This work has generated a major research field in economics termed Applied General Equilibrium Analysis and a corresponding area in operations research known as Simplicial Fixed Point Methods. This book comprises all his research articles and consists of four volumes. The volume collects Herbert Scarf's papers in the area of Applied Equilibrium Analysis.

The theme of this book is health outcomes in India, in particular to outcomes relating to its caste and religious groups and, within these groups, to their women and children. The book's tenor is analytical and based upon a rigorous examination of recent data from both government and non-government sources. The major areas covered are sanitation, use by mothers of the government's child development services, child malnutrition, deaths in families, gender discrimination, and the measurement of welfare.

The entropy concept was developed and used by Shannon in 1940 as a measure of uncertainty in the context of information theory. In 1957 Jaynes made use of Shannon's entropy concept as a basis for estimation and inference in problems that are ill-suited for traditional statistical procedures. This volume consists of two sections. The first section contains papers developing econometric methods based on the entropy principle. An interesting array of applications is presented in the second section of the volume.

The book addresses the problem of calculation of d-dimensional integrals (conditional expectations) in filter problems. It develops new methods of deterministic numerical integration, which can be used to speed up and stabilize filter algorithms. With the help of these methods, better estimates and predictions of latent variables are made possible in the fields of economics, engineering and physics. The resulting procedures are tested within four detailed simulation studies.

In recent years, as part of the increasing "informationization" of industry and the economy, enterprises have been accumulating vast amounts of detailed data such as high-frequency transaction data in nancial markets and point-of-sale information onindividualitems in theretail sector. Similarly,vast amountsof data arenow ava- able on business networks based on inter rm transactions and shareholdings. In the past, these types of information were studied only by economists and management scholars. More recently, however, researchers from other elds, such as physics, mathematics, and information sciences, have become interested in this kind of data and, based on novel empirical approaches to searching for regularities and "laws" akin to those in the natural sciences, have produced intriguing results. This book is the proceedings of the international conference THICCAPFA7 that was titled "New Approaches to the Analysis of Large-Scale Business and E- nomic Data," held in Tokyo, March 1-5, 2009. The letters THIC denote the Tokyo Tech (Tokyo Institute of Technology)-Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference. The conference series, titled APFA (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis), focuses on the analysis of large-scale economic data. It has traditionally brought physicists and economists together to exchange viewpoints and experience (APFA1 in Dublin 1999, APFA2 in Liege ` 2000, APFA3 in London 2001, APFA4 in Warsaw 2003, APFA5 in Torino 2006, and APFA6 in Lisbon 2007). The aim of the conf- ence is to establish fundamental analytical techniques and data collection methods, taking into account the results from a variety of academic disciplines.

Each chapter of Macroeconometrics is written by respected econometricians in order to provide useful information and perspectives for those who wish to apply econometrics in macroeconomics. The chapters are all written with clear methodological perspectives, making the virtues and limitations of particular econometric approaches accessible to a general readership familiar with applied macroeconomics. The real tensions in macroeconometrics are revealed by the critical comments from different econometricians, having an alternative perspective, which follow each chapter.

This book presents a theory of the general dynamic economic equilibrium which is a development of the static theory of Walras and Pareto. The work has built up an analytical model of the effective, current movement of an economic system, founded on the logic of the individual changing programmes - a basis for finding out the laws of all types of endogenous and exogenous movements of the economy. Indeed, the model can be used in the treatment of the typical problems of dynamic economics, by means of the author's method of variational dynamic analysis.

Two central problems in the pure theory of economic growth are analysed in this monograph: 1) the dynamic laws governing the economic growth processes, 2) the kinematic and geometric properties of the set of solutions to the dynamic systems. With allegiance to rigor and the emphasis on the theoretical fundamentals of prototype mathematical growth models, the treatise is written in the theorem-proof style. To keep the exposition orderly and as smooth as possible, the economic analysis has been separated from the purely mathematical issues, and hence the monograph is organized in two books. Regarding the scope and content of the two books, an "Introduction and Over view" has been prepared to offer both motivation and a brief account. The introduc tion is especially designed to give a recapitulation of the mathematical theory and results presented in Book II, which are used as the unifying mathematical framework in the analysis and exposition of the different economic growth models in Book I. Economists would probably prefer to go directly to Book I and proceed by consult ing the mathematical theorems of Book II in confirming the economic theorems in Book I. Thereby, both the independence and interdependence of the economic and mathematical argumentations are respected."

In this compelling 1995 book, David Hendry and Mary Morgan bring together the classic papers of the pioneer econometricians. Together, these papers form the foundations of econometric thought. They are essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the aims, method and methodology of econometrics and the development of this statistical approach in economics. However, because they are technically straightforward, the book is also accessible to students and non-specialists. An editorial commentary places the readings in their historical context and indicates the continuing relevance of these early, yet highly sophisticated, works for current econometric analysis. While this book provides a companion volume to Mary Morgan's acclaimed The History of Econometric Ideas, the editors' commentary both adds to that earlier volume and also provides a stand-alone and synthetic account of the development of econometrics.

Jean-Jacques Rousseau wrote in the Preface to his famous Discourse on Inequality that "I consider the subject of the following discourse as one of the most interesting questions philosophy can propose, and unhappily for us, one of the most thorny that philosophers can have to solve. For how shall we know the source of inequality between men, if we do not begin by knowing mankind?" (Rousseau, 1754). This citation of Rousseau appears in an article in Spanish where Dagum (2001), in the memory of whom this book is published, also cites Socrates who said that the only useful knowledge is that which makes us better and Seneca who wrote that knowing what a straight line is, is not important if we do not know what rectitude is. These references are indeed a good illustration of Dagum's vast knowledge, which was clearly not limited to the ?eld of Economics. For Camilo the ?rst part of Rousseau's citation certainly justi?ed his interest in the ?eld of inequality which was at the centre of his scienti?c preoccupations. It should however be stressed that for Camilo the second part of the citation represented a "solid argument in favor of giving macroeconomic foundations to microeconomic behavior" (Dagum, 2001). More precisely, "individualism and methodological holism complete each other in contributing to the explanation of individual and social behavior" (Dagum, 2001).

Tax policy questions may relate to specific problems, concerning perhaps the revenue implications of a particular tax, or they may involve an extensive analysis of the cost and redistributive effects of many taxes and transfer payments. This book is concerned with the ways in which tax policy design can be enhanced by the use of a behavioural tax microsimulation model capable of evaluating the effects of planned or actual tax reforms. An advantage of such a large-scale tax simulation model, which reflects the heterogeneity of the population and captures the details of the tax structure, is that it can examine detailed practical policy questions and can provide direct inputs into policy debates. After introducing behavioural models, the authors discuss the role of means testing, several hypothetical policy reforms, actual and proposed reforms and recent modelling developments.Tax Policy Design and Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling will be of interest to academics and researchers of economics, econometrics and public finance. It will also be useful reading for policymakers responsible for the formulation of taxation.

This book provides a better understanding of how intellectual property can improve economic and business performance. It focuses on three particular issues: the valuation of patents, the transfer of knowledge, and the management of innovation and intellectual property. Scholars from leading worldwide institutions use quantitative methods and advanced survey techniques to explore the complex relationship between patents, innovation, venture capital and scientific research. The book focuses on three broad issues: the valuation of patents, the transfer of knowledge, and the management of innovation and intellectual property.

Debates about tax policy arise every year in Washington, and legislative changes occur almost as often. In just the past decade, corporate tax burdens were dramatically reduced and then subsequently increased. But who really bears the burden of taxation? Finding a satisfactory way to address this question remains one of the biggest challenges for economists. While much research has explored this issue using annual data on household incomes and expenditures, this book considers the multiple effects of taxes on individuals over their entire lifetimes.

Since annual incomes typically vary from year to year, and change systematically over the course of a lifetime, annual income is not necessarily a good indicator of a person's relative well-being. Instead, Dianne Rogers and Don Fullerton categorize individuals into lifetime income groups, and re-estimate the pattern of earnings over the lifetime of each group. They utilize a general equilibrium model that encompasses household demands, work effort, and savings, and they calculate the distribution of each current tax. Because their model includes all major U.S. federal, state, and local taxes, it can be used to simulate the effects of changes in any of those taxes on investment, productivity, resource allocation, and the distribution of burdens.

Don Fullerton is professor of economics at the University of Virginia and visiting professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon, School of Urban and Public Affairs. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Tax Analysis from 1985 to 1987. Diane Lim Rogers is assistant professor of economics at Pennsylvania State University.

The subject theory is important in finance, economics, investment strategies, health sciences, environment, industrial engineering, etc.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data provides an examination of the flourishing interest that has developed in this area over the past decade. The constant theme throughout this work is that standard linear time series tools leave unexamined and unexploited economically significant features in frequently used data sets. The book comprises original contributions written by specialists in the field, and offers a combination of both applied and methodological papers. It will be useful to both seasoned veterans of nonlinear time series analysis and those searching for an informative panoramic look at front-line developments in the area.

The basic characteristic of Modern Linear and Nonlinear Econometrics is that it presents a unified approach of modern linear and nonlinear econometrics in a concise and intuitive way. It covers four major parts of modern econometrics: linear and nonlinear estimation and testing, time series analysis, models with categorical and limited dependent variables, and, finally, a thorough analysis of linear and nonlinear panel data modeling. Distinctive features of this handbook are:

-A unified approach of both linear and nonlinear econometrics, with an integration of the theory and the practice in modern econometrics. Emphasis on sound theoretical and empirical relevance and intuition. Focus on econometric and statistical methods for the analysis of linear and nonlinear processes in economics and finance, including computational methods and numerical tools.

-Completely worked out empirical illustrations are provided throughout, the macroeconomic and microeconomic (household and firm level) data sets of which are available from the internet; these empirical illustrations are taken from finance (e.g. CAPM and derivatives), international economics (e.g. exchange rates), innovation economics (e.g. patenting), business cycle analysis, monetary economics, housing economics, labor and educational economics (e.g. demand for teachers according to gender) and many others.

-Exercises are added to the chapters, with a focus on the interpretation of results; several of these exercises involve the use of actual data that are typical for current empirical work and that are made available on the internet.

What is also distinguishable in Modern Linear and Nonlinear Econometrics is that everymajor topic has a number of examples, exercises or case studies. By this learning by doing' method the intention is to prepare the reader to be able to design, develop and successfully finish his or her own research and/or solve real world problems.

This book aims at meeting the growing demand in the field by introducing the basic spatial econometrics methodologies to a wide variety of researchers. It provides a practical guide that illustrates the potential of spatial econometric modelling, discusses problems and solutions and interprets empirical results.

This book contains contributions from friends of Ben Stevens, remembering and celebrating his life and his work. Following his untimely death, a set of special sessions were organized for the program of the November 1998 meetings of the Regional Science Association International, held in Sante Fe, New Mexico.

In all 41 papers were presented in 11 of these sessions. Those invited to participate included former colleagues and students from Ben's days on the faculty at the University of Pennsylvania as well as friends and collaborators from the economics and regional science community at large - academic, private and government.

It is the intention of the editors to make available with this book a selection of current work in regional economics and regional science. Some of the papers reflect on aspects of Ben's legacy, suggesting how his early work (in the 1960s) served as a basis for subsequent theoretical advances or applied developments - for example, in residential choice theory, in land-use and transportation modeling and in regional econometric modeling in general and regional input-output analysis in particular (which remained one of Ben's primary interests throughout his life). The variety of topics covered by the papers in this volume is a testament to the breadth and depth of Ben's active curiosity.

"Economics, Econometrics and The LINK" is a collection of scholarly contributions by leading scholars from the U.S., Europe, and Asia dealing with issues of economics and econometrics. The book contains a learned and erudite exposition of macroeconomics and macroeconomic modeling including national, sectoral, issues exchange rate, environment, international price competitiveness and international linkages. It presents a comprehensive perspective of econometric modeling - country-specific, sector-specific and issue-specific. The volume is a tribute to the work of Lawrence R. Klein from all his friends who share a common agenda, viz. to relate the study of economics to the studies of mankind.

During 1985-86, the acquisition editor for the humanities and social sciences division of Kluwer Academic Publishers in the Netherlands visited the University of Horida (where I was also visiting while on sabbatical leave from Wilfrid Laurier University as the McKethan-Matherly Senior Research Fellow) to discuss publishing plans of the faculty. He expressed a keen interest in publishing the proceedings of the conference of the Canadian Econometric Study Group (CESG) that was to be held the following year at WLU. This volume is the end product of his interest, endurance, and persistence. But for his persistence I would have given up on th~ project Most of the papers (though not all) included in this volume are based on presentations at CESG conferences. In some cases scholars were invited to contribute to this volume where their research complimented those presented at these conferences even though they were not conference participants. Since papers selected for presentation at the CESG conferences are generally the finished product of scholarly research and often under submission to refereed journals, it was not possible to publish the conference proceedings in their entirety. Accordingly it was decided, in consultation with the publisher, to invite a select list of authors to submit significant extensions of the papers they presented at the CESG conferences for inclusion in this volume. The editor wishes to express gratitude to all those authors who submitted their papers for evaluation by anonymous referees and for making revisions to conform to our editorial process.

"In this book, Peter Bogetoft - THE expert on the theory and practice of benchmarking - provides an in-depth yet very accessible and readable explanation of the best way to do benchmarking, starting from the ground up." Rick Antle William S. Beinecke Professor of Accounting, Yale School of Management CFO, Compensation Valuation, Inc. "I highly recommend this well-written and comprehensive book on measuring and managing performance. Dr. Bogetoft summarizes the fundamental mathematical concepts in an elegant, intuitive, and understandable way." Jon A. Chilingerian Professor, Brandeis University and INSEAD "Bogetoft gives in his book Performance Benchmarking an excellent introduction to the methodological basis of benchmarking." Christian Parbol Director, DONG Energy "This book is the primer on benchmarking for performance management." Albert Birck Business Performance Manager, Maersk Oil "This excellent book provides a non technical introduction for performance management." Misja Mikkers, Director, Dutch Health Care Authority "With this very well written and comprehensive introduction to the many facets of benchmarking in hand, organizations have no excuse for not applying the best and cost effective benchmarking methods in their performance assessments." Stig P. Christensen Senior R&D Director, COWI

Herbert Scarf is a highly esteemed distinguished American economist. He is internationally famous for his early epoch-making work on optimal inventory policies and his highly influential study with Andrew Clark on optimal policies for a multi-echelon inventory problem, which initiated the important and flourishing field of supply chain management. Equally, he has gained world recognition for his classic study on the stability of the Walrasian price adjustment processes and his fundamental analysis on the relationship between the core and the set of competitive equilibria (the so-called Edgeworth conjecture). Further achievements include his remarkable sufficient condition for the existence of a core in non-transferable utility games and general exchange economies, his seminal paper with Lloyd Shapley on housing markets, and his pioneering study on increasing returns and models of production in the presence of indivisibilities. All in all, however, the name of Scarf is always remembered as a synonym for the computation of economic equilibria and fixed points. In the early 1960s he invented a path-breaking technique for computing equilibrium prices.This work has generated a major research field in economics termed Applied General Equilibrium Analysis and a corresponding area in operations research known as Simplicial Fixed Point Methods. This book comprises all his research articles and consists of four volumes. The volume collects Herbert Scarfs papers in the area of Production in Indivisibilities and the Theories of Large Firms.

This book is a macro-study of Indian business communities in Singapore through different phases of their growth since colonial times. It goes beyond the conventional labour-history approach to study Indian immigrants to Southeast Asia, both in terms of themselves and their connections with the peoples' movements. It looks at how Indian business communities negotiated with others in the environments in which they found themselves and adapted to them in novel ways. It especially brings into focus the patterns and integration of the Indian networks in the large-scale transnational flows of capital, one of the least-studied aspects of the diaspora history in this part of the world. The complexities and overlapping interests of different groups of traders and businessmen form an interesting study of various aspects of these trading bodies, their methods of operation and their trade links, both within and outside Singapore. The book also charts their mobility and progress, in terms of both business and social status. The research aims to construct linear threads of linkages through generations and situate them in the larger framework and broader paradigms of business networks in Singapore. In shedding light on aspects of Indian connectivities to Southeast Asia, the narrative is particularly relevant in the context of India's economic rise. This study raises economic, social and cultural issues regarding the transition.