This volume of selected and peer-reviewed contributions on the latest developments in time series analysis and forecasting updates the reader on topics such as analysis of irregularly sampled time series, multi-scale analysis of univariate and multivariate time series, linear and non-linear time series models, advanced time series forecasting methods, applications in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series and high-dimensional and complex/big data time series. The contributions were originally presented at the International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2016, held in Granada, Spain, June 27-29, 2016. The series of ITISE conferences provides a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing the disciplines of computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.

This contributed volume applies spatial and space-time econometric methods to spatial interaction modeling. The first part of the book addresses general cutting-edge methodological questions in spatial econometric interaction modeling, which concern aspects such as coefficient interpretation, constrained estimation, and scale effects. The second part deals with technical solutions to particular estimation issues, such as intraregional flows, Bayesian PPML and VAR estimation. The final part presents a number of empirical applications, ranging from interregional tourism competition and domestic trade to space-time migration modeling and residential relocation.

The two-volume book studies the economic and industrial development of Japan and China in modern times and draws distinctions between the different paths of industrialization and economic modernization taken in the two countries, based on statistical materials, quantitative analysis and multivariate statistical analysis. The first volume analyses the relationship between technological innovation and economic development in Japan before World War II and sheds light on technological innovation in the Japanese context with particular emphasis on the importance of the patent system. The second volume studies the basic conditions and overall economic development of industrial development, chiefly during the period of the Republic of China (1912-1949), taking a comparative perspective and bringing the case of modern Japan into the discussion. The book will appeal to academics and general readers interested in economic development and the modern economic history of East Asia, development economics, as well as industrial and technological history.

This book presents a comprehensive study of multivariate time series with linear state space structure. The emphasis is put on both the clarity of the theoretical concepts and on efficient algorithms for implementing the theory. In particular, it investigates the relationship between VARMA and state space models, including canonical forms. It also highlights the relationship between Wiener-Kolmogorov and Kalman filtering both with an infinite and a finite sample. The strength of the book also lies in the numerous algorithms included for state space models that take advantage of the recursive nature of the models. Many of these algorithms can be made robust, fast, reliable and efficient. The book is accompanied by a MATLAB package called SSMMATLAB and a webpage presenting implemented algorithms with many examples and case studies. Though it lays a solid theoretical foundation, the book also focuses on practical application, and includes exercises in each chapter. It is intended for researchers and students working with linear state space models, and who are familiar with linear algebra and possess some knowledge of statistics.

This clearly written volume provides an accessible examination of the nature of disequilibrium models. Srivastava and Rao contend that existing software packages can be easily used to implement some of the relatively simple methods. This study furnishes a substantial grounding in the economics and econometrics of the disequilibrium models by reviewing the Walrasian general equilibrium theory and by comparing the two genuine alternative frameworks for analyzing economic phenomena. Srivastava and Rao demonstrate that while both frameworks share a common set of basic assumptions about the behavior of the economic decision making units, they differ in their assumptions about the ability of the markets to attain equilibrium within a single trading period and whether trading can take place out of equilibrium. The first two chapters provide background, divide the existing methods of estimation of disequilibrium models into two categories, and explain the estimation methods for the basic model that belongs to the first category. The next three chapters explain the estimation methods for the directional, quantitative, and generalized stochastic models of the second category. Various methods for testing and evaluating equilibrium versus disequilibrium hypotheses are investigated in chapter six. Chapter seven examines the assumptions on which the models are formulated and discusses some alternative specifications of the disequilibrium models. The final chapters provide analyses of the economics and econometrics of the multi-market models and illustrate how some simple estimation methods can be used to estimate the disequilibrium formulations of the U. S. labor market. This is an important volume that will aid in the achievement of methodological consistency between analytical philosophy and the estimation methods in the applied work on disequilibrium economics.

The Handbook of Mathematical Economics aims to provide a definitive source, reference, and teaching supplement for the field of mathematical economics. It surveys, as of the late 1970's the state of the art of mathematical economics. This is a constantly developing field and all authors were invited to review and to appraise the current status and recent developments in their presentations. In addition to its use as a reference, it is intended that this Handbook will assist researchers and students working in one branch of mathematical economics to become acquainted with other branches of this field. The emphasis of this fourth volume of the Handbook of Mathematical Economics is on choice under uncertainty, general equilibrium analysis under conditions of uncertainty, economies with an infinite number of consumers or commodities, and dynamical systems. The book thus reflects some of the ideas that have been most influential in mathematical economics since the appearance of the first three volumes of the Handbook.

Researchers, students, economists and mathematicians will all find this Handbook to be an indispensable reference source. It surveys the entire field of mathematical economics, critically reviewing recent developments. The chapters (which can be read independently) are written at an advanced level suitable for professional, teaching and graduate-level use.

For more information on the Handbooks in Economics series, please see our home page on http: //www.elsevier.nl/locate/hes

Advances in Austrian Economics is a research annual whose editorial policy is to publish original research articles on Austrian economics. Each volume attempts to apply the insights of Austrian economics and related approaches to topics that are of current interest in economics and cognate disciplines. Volume 21 exemplifies this focus by highlighting key research from the Austrian tradition of economics with other research traditions in economics and related areas.

This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.

This study quantifies the relationships between the economies of the Unites States and Japan on an industrially disaggregated basis. It links two large-scale econometric models of the U.S. and Japan in the framework of the world model system (Project LINK). These models are useful not only for forecasts and aggregate policy studies, but also for detailed investigation of industrial changes and trade policy on sectoral output employment, trade balance, and inflation in both countries. The interactions with other parts of the world are also taken into account. Applications to policy changes and exchange rate variations illustrate the potential of the model system and provide a powerful insight into the operation of two closely integrated economies. A pioneering effort to link quantitatively the relationships between the economies of the United States and Japan, this volume will be of interest to economists and policymakers here and abroad.

Advances in Econometrics is a research annual whose editorial policy is to publish original research articles that contain enough details so that economists and econometricians who are not experts in the topics will find them accessible and useful in their research. Volume 37 exemplifies this focus by highlighting key research from new developments in econometrics.

Two important new developments have occurred that have significant impact on the evolution of econometrics, namely, the end of the Cold War and the emergence of the information revolution in nearly all economies of the world.

The information revolution has had significant effect on data flows, making them much more timely, accessible, and descriptive of more parts of the economy. At the same time, it has changed the industrial structure of many economies, giving rise to increasing importance of the tertiary sectors (e.g. services). The new generation of hardware and software enables econometricians to handle larger and more complex problems, especially those that are data intensive and computer intrusive.

These major events require reconsideration and redrafting of some of the materials of the original edition.

The present volume retains the original structure of "Lectures on Microeconomic Theory" and takes up principles of constructing dynamic macroeconometric models and their use in economic analyses and forecasting, while introducing many updates, revisions and extensions. The description of the econometric methodology has been limited to specific applications of time series analysis, and the title has been changed to "Principles of Macroeconometric Modeling."

The first four chapters discuss the principles of specifying equations of structural macromodels, covering both developed marked economies, transition economies and world-wide models. The remaining chapters cover some major issues in the use of macromodels. The point of departure is model simulation, especially of the prevailing non-linear models, which is followed by model validation. The analysis of model dynamics covers economic fluctuations and the relevant implications of non-stationarity. The use of macromodels in policy analysis is presented next; it includes multiplier analysis and scenario simulations. The monograph ends up with forecasting being a special case of simulation analysis.

A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering

Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, "Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications" explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency.

Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility:

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets

Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities

Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures

"Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications" is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

This book serves not only as an introduction, but also as an advanced text and reference source in the field of deterministic optimal control systems governed by ordinary differential equations. It also includes an introduction to the classical calculus of variations.
An important feature of the book is the inclusion of a large number of examples, in which the theory is applied to a wide variety of economics problems. The presentation of simple models helps illuminate pertinent qualitative and analytic points, useful when confronted with a more complex reality. These models cover: economic growth in both open and closed economies, exploitation of (non-) renewable resources, pollution control, behaviour of firms, and differential games. A great emphasis on precision pervades the book, setting it apart from the bulk of literature in this area. The rigorous techniques presented should help the reader avoid errors which often recur in the application of control theory within economics.

This book addresses central issues in evolutionary and Schumpeterian accounts of industrial competition, learning, and innovation. It contains a collection of twelve papers which are oriented toward exploring methodological issues in evolutionary and related scholarship. Reflecting the diversity of work in evolutionary scholarship, a range of methodologies are employed in the papers, including simulation, experiments, and econometric analysis. Some of the papers use well established models to takle new questions and problems. Others introduce entirely new approaches, which the authors indicate are still in a state of infancy and await further development. The collection attempts to raise even more interest in evolutionary economics, to provide some suggestions for future research directions, and to initiate a lively discussion of the issues raised.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China's major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This report, the twenty-sixth quarterly report, has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on February 26, 2019. This conference was jointly held at Beijing by the CMR and the Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency

Volume 36 of Advances in Econometrics recognizes Aman Ullah's significant contributions in many areas of econometrics and celebrates his long productive career. The volume features original papers on the theory and practice of econometrics that is related to the work of Aman Ullah. Topics include nonparametric/semiparametric econometrics; finite sample econometrics; shrinkage methods; information/entropy econometrics; model specification testing; robust inference; panel/spatial models. Advances in Econometrics is a research annual whose editorial policy is to publish original research articles that contain enough details so that economists and econometricians who are not experts in the topics will find them accessible and useful in their research.

Hardbound. The Handbook is a definitive reference source and teaching aid for econometricians. It examines models, estimation theory, data analysis and field applications in econometrics. Comprehensive surveys, written by experts, discuss recent developments at a level suitable for professional use by economists, econometricians, statisticians, and in advanced graduate econometrics courses.For more information on the Handbooks in Economics series, please see our home page on http: //www.elsevier.nl/locate/he

The Handbook of Mathematical Economics aims to provide a definitive source, reference, and teaching supplement for the field of mathematical economics. It surveys, as of the late 1970's the state of the art of mathematical economics. This is a constantly developing field and all authors were invited to review and to appraise the current status and recent developments in their presentations. In addition to its use as a reference, it is intended that this Handbook will assist researchers and students working in one branch of mathematical economics to become acquainted with other branches of this field. Volume I deals with Mathematical Methods in Economics, including reviews of the concepts and techniques that have been most useful for the mathematical development of economic theory. Volume II elaborates on Mathematical Approaches to Microeconomic Theory, including consumer, producer, oligopoly, and duality theory, as well as Mathematical Approaches to Competitive Equilibrium including such aspects of competitive equilibrium as existence, stability, uncertainty, the computation of equilibrium prices, and the core of an economy.

This book is a comprehensive introduction of the reader into the simulation and modelling techniques and their application in the management of organisations. The book is rooted in the thorough understanding of systems theory applied to organisations and focuses on how this theory can apply to econometric models used in the management of organisations. The econometric models in this book employ linear and dynamic programming, graph theory, queuing theory, game theory, etc. and are presented and analysed in various fields of application, such as investment management, stock management, strategic decision making, management of production costs and the lifecycle costs of quality and non-quality products, production quality Management, etc.

This book deals with microeconomic theory as it concerns general economic equilibrium and the implications for prices and resource allocation.
Students with a background in mathematics will find in this volume a broad, comprehensible overview of the ideas which have contributed to our understanding of general equilibrium.

The Handbook is a definitive reference source and teaching aid for econometricians. It examines models, estimation theory, data analysis and field applications in econometrics. Comprehensive surveys, written by experts, discuss recent developments at a level suitable for professional use by economists, econometricians, statisticians, and in advanced graduate econometrics courses. For more information on the Handbooks in Economics series, please see our home page on http: //www.elsevier.nl/locate/hes

The Handbook of Mathematical Economics aims to provide a definitive source, reference, and teaching supplement for the field of mathematical economics. It surveys, as of the late 1970's the state of the art of mathematical economics. This is a constantly developing field and all authors were invited to review and to appraise the current status and recent developments in their presentations. In addition to its use as a reference, it is intended that this Handbook will assist researchers and students working in one branch of mathematical economics to become acquainted with other branches of this field. Volume 1 deals with "Mathematical Methods in Economics," including reviews of the concepts and techniques that have been most useful for the mathematical development of economic theory.

For more information on the Handbooks in Economics series, please see our home page on http: //www.elsevier.nl/locate/hes

The Handbook is a definitive reference source and teaching aid for econometricians. It examines models, estimation theory, data analysis and field applications in econometrics. Comprehensive surveys, written by experts, discuss recent developments at a level suitable for professional use by economists, econometricians, statisticians, and in advanced graduate econometrics courses. For more information on the Handbooks in Economics series, please see our home page on http: //www.elsevier.nl/locate/hes

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

This book explores the role of national fiscal policies in a selected group of Euro-area countries under the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In particular, the authors characterize the response of output to fiscal consolidations and expansions in the small Euro-area open economies affected by high public and private debt. It is shown that the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal shocks is strongly related to debt levels. The Euro-area countries included in the investigation are Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal, over the sample period 1999-2016, i.e., the EMU period. The main econometric tools used in this research are structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models, including panel VAR models. The available literature relating to the subject is also fully reviewed. A further closely investigated topic is the potential spillover effects of German fiscal policies on the selected small Euro-area economies. Moreover, in the perspective of the evolution of the Euro Area towards a full Monetary and Fiscal Union, the authors study the effects of area-wide government spending shocks on aggregate output and other macroeconomic variables during the EMU period. The closing chapter of the book considers evidence on the consequences of austerity policies for European labour markets during recent years.