Drawing on the author's extensive and varied research, this book provides readers with a firm grounding in the concepts and issues across several disciplines including economics, nutrition, psychology and public health in the hope of improving the design of food policies in the developed and developing world. Using longitudinal (panel) data from India, Bangladesh, Kenya, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Pakistan and extending the analytical framework used in economics and biomedical sciences to include multi-disciplinary analyses, Alok Bhargava shows how rigorous and thoughtful econometric and statistical analysis can improve our understanding of the relationships between a number of socioeconomic, nutritional, and behavioural variables on a number of issues like cognitive development in children and labour productivity in the developing world. These unique insights combined with a multi-disciplinary approach forge the way for a more refined and effective approach to food policy formation going forward. A chapter on the growing obesity epidemic is also included, highlighting the new set of problems facing not only developed but developing countries. The book also includes a glossary of technical terms to assist readers coming from a variety of disciplines.

Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization

The finance industry is seeing increased interest in new risk measures and techniques for portfolio optimization when parameters of the model are uncertain.

This groundbreaking book extends traditional approaches of risk measurement and portfolio optimization by combining distributional models with risk or performance measures into one framework. Throughout these pages, the expert authors explain the fundamentals of probability metrics, outline new approaches to portfolio optimization, and discuss a variety of essential risk measures. Using numerous examples, they illustrate a range of applications to optimal portfolio choice and risk theory, as well as applications to the area of computational finance that may be useful to financial engineers. They also clearly show how stochastic models, risk assessment, and optimization are essential to mastering risk, uncertainty, and performance measurement.

Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization provides quantitative portfolio managers (including hedge fund managers), financial engineers, consultants, and?academic researchers with answers to the key question of which risk measure is best for any given problem.

This book is the first volume of the International Series in Economic Model ing, a series designed to summarize current issues and procedures in applied modeling within various fields of economics and to offer new or alternative approaches to prevailing problems. In selecting the subject area for the first volume, we were attracted by the area to which applied modeling efforts are increasingly being drawn, regional economics and its associated subfields. Applied modeling is a broad rubric even when the focus is restricted to econometric modeling issues. Regional econometric modeling has posted a record of rapid growth during the last two decades and has become an established field of research and application. Econometric models of states and large urban areas have become commonplace, but the existence of such models does not signal an end to further development of regional econ ometric methods and models. Many issues such as structural specification, level of geographic detail, data constraints, forecasting integrity, and syn thesis with other regional modeling techniques will continue to be sources of concern and will prompt further research efforts. The chapters of this volume reflect many of these issues. A brief synopsis of each contribution is provided below: Richard Weber offers an overview of regional econometric models by discussing theoretical specification, nature of variables, and ultimate useful ness of such models. For an illustration, Weber describes the specification of the econometric model of New Jersey."

Use of information is basic to economic theory in two ways. As a basis for optimization, it is central to all normative hypotheses used in eco nomics, but in decision-making situations it has stochastic and evolution ary aspects that are more dynamic and hence more fundamental. This book provides an illustrative survey of the use of information in econom ics and other decision sciences. Since this area is one of the most active fields of research in modern times, it is not possible to be definitive on all aspects of the issues involved. However questions that appear to be most important in this author's view are emphasized in many cases, without drawing any definite conclusions. It is hoped that these questions would provoke new interest for those beginning researchers in the field who are currently most active. Various classifications of information structures and their relevance for optimal decision-making in a stochastic environment are analyzed in some detail. Specifically the following areas are illustrated in its analytic aspects: 1. Stochastic optimization in linear economic models, 2. Stochastic models in dynamic economics with problems of time-inc- sistency, causality and estimation, 3. Optimal output-inventory decisions in stochastic markets, 4. Minimax policies in portfolio theory, 5. Methods of stochastic control and differential games, and 6. Adaptive information structures in decision models in economics and the theory of economic policy."

This book deals with the methods and practical uses of regression and factor analysis. An exposition is given of ordinary, generalized, two- and three-stage estimates for regression analysis, the method of principal components being applied for factor analysis. When establishing an econometric model, the two ways of analysis complement each other. The model was realized as part of the 'Interplay' research project concerning the economies of the European Common Market countries at the Econometrics Department of the Tilburg School of Economics. The Interplay project aims at: a. elaborating more or less uniformly defined and estimated models; b. clarifying the economic structure and the economic policy possible with the linked models of the European Community countries. Besides the model for the Netherlands published here, the models for Belgium, Italy, West Germany and the United Kingdom are ready for linking and for publishing later on. The econometric model presented in this book and upon which the Interplay model is based comprises eleven structural and twenty-one definitional equations; it is estimated with ordinary, two- and three-stage least squares. The analysis of the model is directed at eliminating multicollinearity, accor ding to D.E. Farrar's and R. Glauber's method. In practice, however, complete elimination of multicollinearity leads to an exclusion of certain relations which is not entirely satisfactory. Economic relations can be dealt with more fully by analyzing the variables involved in detail by factor analysis. In this study factor analysis is also a suitable method for a comparative analysis of different periods."

This book is based on an international conference organised by the Applied Econo- metric Association (AEA) on International Macroeconomic Modelling which was held in Brussels at the Commission of the European Communities in December 1983. On behalf of the Applied Econometric Association, we would like to extend our thanks to all participants and contributors. This conference would not have been possible without the cooperation and support of the Commission of the European Economic Communities and of its Directorate General for Economics and Financial Affairs (DGII) staff, in particular M. Emerson, A. Dramais, and also H. Serbat of the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Our thanks go also to J.P. Ancot for his constructive comments concerning the structure of this book. We are grateful to M. Russo, R. Maldague and Y. Ullmo for opening the con- ference with their stimulating review and comments on the use of international macroeconomic models; and to R. Bird, A.M. Costa, A. Crockett, H. Guitton, J.C. Milleron, J. Paelinck, J. Waelbroeck for chairing the scientific sessions. P. Artus F. Gagey O. Guvenen vi INTRODUCTION The main focus of this book is to present recent developments in the construction and use of international macroeconometric models. Four main aspects are selected: (i) analysis of trade linkages and exchange rate determination; (ii) modelling and simulating the international economy; (iii) international policy coordination; (iv) the use of international macroeconomic models.

Econometric theory, as presented in textbooks and the econometric literature generally, is a somewhat disparate collection of findings. Its essential nature is to be a set of demonstrated results that increase over time, each logically based on a specific set of axioms or assumptions, yet at every moment, rather than a finished work, these inevitably form an incomplete body of knowledge. The practice of econometric theory consists of selecting from, applying, and evaluating this literature, so as to test its applicability and range. The creation, development, and use of computer software has led applied economic research into a new age. This book describes the history of econometric computation from 1950 to the present day, based upon an interactive survey involving the collaboration of the many econometricians who have designed and developed this software. It identifies each of the econometric software packages that are made available to and used by economists and econometricians worldwide.

This book has taken form over several years as a result of a number of courses taught at the University of Pennsylvania and at Columbia University and a series of lectures I have given at the International Monetary Fund. Indeed, I began writing down my notes systematically during the academic year 1972-1973 while at the University of California, Los Angeles. The diverse character of the audience, as well as my own conception of what an introductory and often terminal acquaintance with formal econometrics ought to encompass, have determined the style and content of this volume. The selection of topics and the level of discourse give sufficient variety so that the book can serve as the basis for several types of courses. As an example, a relatively elementary one-semester course can be based on Chapters one through five, omitting the appendices to these chapters and a few sections in some of the chapters so indicated. This would acquaint the student with the basic theory of the general linear model, some of the prob lems often encountered in empirical research, and some proposed solutions. For such a course, I should also recommend a brief excursion into Chapter seven (logit and pro bit analysis) in view of the increasing availability of data sets for which this type of analysis is more suitable than that based on the general linear model.

A function is convex if its epigraph is convex. This geometrical structure has very strong implications in terms of continuity and differentiability. Separation theorems lead to optimality conditions and duality for convex problems. A function is quasiconvex if its lower level sets are convex. Here again, the geo metrical structure of the level sets implies some continuity and differentiability properties for quasiconvex functions. Optimality conditions and duality can be derived for optimization problems involving such functions as well. Over a period of about fifty years, quasiconvex and other generalized convex functions have been considered in a variety of fields including economies, man agement science, engineering, probability and applied sciences in accordance with the need of particular applications. During the last twenty-five years, an increase of research activities in this field has been witnessed. More recently generalized monotonicity of maps has been studied. It relates to generalized convexity off unctions as monotonicity relates to convexity. Generalized monotonicity plays a role in variational inequality problems, complementarity problems and more generally, in equilibrium prob lems."

National income estimates date back to the late 17th century, but only in the half-century since the Second World War have economic accounts developed in their present form, becoming an indispensable tool for macroeconomic analysis, projections and policy formulation. Furthermore, it was in this period that the United Nations issued several versions of a system of national accounts (SNA) to make possible economic comparisons on a consistent basis. The latest version, SNA 1993, published in early 1994, occasioned this collection of essays and commentaries. The three chief objectives of the volume are: to enhance understanding of socioeconomic accounts generally and of SNA 1993 in particular; to offer a critique of SNA 1993, including constructive suggestions for future revisions of the system, making it even more useful for its national and international purposes; and to serve as a textbook, or book of readings in conjunction with SNA 1993, for courses in economic accounts.

In the autumn of 1961 Jan Salomon ('Mars') Cramer was appointed to the newly established chair of econometrics at the University of Amsterdam. This volume is published to commemorate this event. It is well-known how much econometrics has developed over the period under consideration, the 25 years that elapsed between 1961 and 1986. This is specifically true for the areas in which Cramer has been actively interested. We mention the theory and measurement of consumer behaviour; money and income; regression, correla tion and forecasting. In the present volume this development will be high lighted. Sixteen contributions have been sollicited from scholars all over the world who have belonged to the circle of academic friends of Cramer for a shorter or longer part of the period of 25 years. The contributions fall broadly speaking into the four areas mentioned above. Theory and measurement of consumer behaviour is represented by four papers, whereas a fifth paper deals with a related area. Richard Blundell and Costas Meghir devote a paper to the estimation of Engel curves. They apply a discrete choice model to British (individual) data from the Family Expenditure Survey 1981. Their aim is to assess the impact of individual characteristics such as income, demographic structure, location, wages and prices on commodity expenditure."

The purpose of this volume is to honour a pioneer in the field of econometrics, A. L. Nagar, on the occasion of his sixtieth birthday. Fourteen econometricians from six countries on four continents have contributed to this project. One of us was his teacher, some of us were his students, many of us were his colleagues, all of us are his friends. Our volume opens with a paper by L. R. Klein which discusses the meaning and role of exogenous variables in struc tural and vector-autoregressive econometric models. Several examples from recent macroeconomic history are presented and the notion of Granger-causality is discussed. This is followed by two papers dealing with an issue of considerable relevance to developing countries, such as India; the measurement of the inequality in the distribution of income. The paper by C. T. West and H. Theil deals with the problem of measuring inequality of all components of total income vvithin a region, rather than just labour income. It applies its results to the regions of the United States. The second paper in this group, by N. Kakwani, derives the large-sample distributions of several popular inequality measures, thus providing a method for drawing large-sample inferences about the differences in inequality between regions. The techniques are applied to the regions of Cote d'Ivoire. The next group of papers is devoted to econometric theory in the context of the dynamic, simultaneous, linear equations model. The first, by P. J."

This volume provides a general overview of the econometrics of panel data, both from a theoretical and from an applied viewpoint. Since the pioneering papers by Kuh (1959), Mundlak (1961), Hoch (1962), and Balestra and Nerlove (1966), the pooling of cross-section and time-series data has become an increasingly popular way of quantifying economic relationships. Each series provides information lacking in the other, so a combination of both leads to more accurate and reliable results than would be achievable by one type of series alone. Over the last 30 years much work has been done: investigation of the properties of the applied estimators and test statistics, analysis of dynamic models and the effects of eventual measurement errors, etc. These are just some of the problems addressed by this work. In addition, some specific difficulties associated with the use of panel data, such as attrition, heterogeneity, selectivity bias, pseudo panels etc. have also been explored. The first objective of this book, which takes up Parts I and II, is to give as complete and up-to-date a presentation of these theoretical developments as possible. Part I is concerned with classical linear models and their extensions; Part II deals with nonlinear models and related issues: logit and probit models, latent variable models, incomplete panels and selectivity bias, and point processes. The second objective is to provide insights into the use of panel data in empirical studies. Since the beginning, interest in panel data has been empirically based, and over time has become increasingly important in applied economic studies. This is demonstrated by growing numbers of conferences and special issues of economic journals devoted to the subject. Part III deals with studies in several major fields of applied economics, such as labour and investment demand, labour supply, consumption, transitions on the labour market, and finance. The double emphasis of this book (theoretical and applied), together with the fact that all the chapters have been written by well-known specialists in the field, ensure that it will become a standard textbook for all those who are concerned with the use of panel data in econometrics, whether they are advanced students, professional economists or researchers.

This completely revised and enhanced second edition of the volume first published in 1992 provides a general overview of the econometrics of panel data, both from a theoretical and from an applied viewpoint. Since the pioneering papers by Kuh (1959), Mundlak (1961), Hoch (1962), and Balestra and Nerlove (1966), the pooling of cross section and time series data has become an increasingly popular way of quantifying economic relationships. Each series provides information lacking in the other, so a combination of both leads to more accurate and reliable results than would be achievable by one type of series alone. Much work has been done over the last three decades: investigation of the properties of the applied estimators and test statistics, analysis of dynamic models and the effects of eventual measurement errors, etc. These are just some of the problems addressed by this work. In addition, some specific difficulties associated with the use of panel data are also explored, such as attrition, heterogeneity, selectivity bias, pseudo-panels etc. The second, enhanced edition provides a complete and up to date presentation of these theoretical developments. Part I is concerned with classical linear models and their extensions; Part II deals with nonlinear models and related issues: logit and probit models, latent variable models, incomplete panels and selectivity bias, point processes, etc. Nine additional chapters about instrumental variables and generalized method of moments estimators, duration models, count data models, simulation methods, etc. have been included. This volume also provides insights into the use of panel data in empirical studies. Part III deals with surveys in several major fields of applied economics, such as labour and investment demand, labour supply, consumption, transitions on the labour market, and finance. Two new chapters about foreign investment and production frontiers have been included. Audience: The double emphasis of the book (theoretical and applied), together with the fact that all the chapters have been written by well-known specialists in the field, means that it will become a standard reference for all those concerned with the use of panel data in econometrics: advanced students, professional economists or researchers.

Giovanni Castellani Rector of the University of Venice This book contains the Proceedings of the Conference on "Economic Policy and Control Theory" which was held at the University of Venice (Italy) on 27 January-l February 1985. The goal of the Conference was to survey the main developments of control theory in economics, by emphasizing particularly new achievements in the analysis of dynamic economic models by con trol methods. The development of control theory is strictly related to the development of science and technology in the last forty years. Control theory was indeed applied mainly in engineering, and only in the sixties economists started using control methods for analys ing economic problems, even if some preliminary economic applica tions of calculus of variations, from which control theory was then developed, date back to the twenties. Applications of control theory in economics also had to solve new, complicated, problems, like those encountered in optimal growth models, or like the determination of the appropriate inter temporal social welfare function, of the policy horizon and the relative final state of the system, of the appropriate discount factor. Furthermore, the uncertainty characterizing economic models had to be taken into account, thus giving rise to the development of stochastic control theory in economics."

Thi s book ari ses from The Fourth European Coll oqui urn on Theoret i ca 1 and Quant itat i ve Geography wh i ch was he 1 din Ve 1 dhoven, The Netherlands in September 1985. It contains a series of papers on spatial choice dynamics and dynamical spatial systems which were presented at the colloquium, together with a few other soll icited ones. The book is intended primarily as a state-of-the art review of mainly European research on these two fastly growing problem areas. As a consequence of this decision, the book contains a selection of papers that differs in terms of focus, level of sophistication and conceptual background. Evidently, the dissimination of ideas and computer software is a time-related phenomenon, which in the European context is amplified by differences in language, the profile of geography and the formal training of geographers. The book reflects such differences. It would have been impossible to produce this book without the support of the various European study groups on theoretical and quantitative geography. Without their help the meetings from which this volumes originates would not have been held in the first place. We are also indebted to the Royal Dutch Academy of Science for partly funding the colloquium, and to SISWO and TNOjPSC for providing general support in the organisation of the conference.

Measuring productive efficiency for nonprofit organizations has posed a great challenge to applied researchers today. The problem has many facets and diverse implications for a number of disciplines such as economics, applied statistics, management science and information theory. This monograph discusses four major areas, which emphasize the applied economic and econometric as. pects of the production frontier analysis: A. Stochastic frontier theory, B. Data envelopment analysis, C. Clustering and estimation theory, D. Economic and managerial applications Besides containing an up-to-date survey of the mos. t recent developments in the field, the monograph presents several new results and theorems from my own research. These include but are not limited to the following: (1) interface with parametric theory, (2) minimax and robust concepts of production frontier, (3) game-theoretic extension of the Farrell and Johansen models, (4) optimal clustering techniques for data envelopment analysis and (5) the dynamic and stochastic generalizations of the efficiency frontier at the micro and macro levels. In my research work in this field I have received great support and inspiration from Professor Abraham Charnes of the University of Texas at Austin, who has basically founded the technique of data envelopment analysis, developed it and is still expanding it. My interactions with him have been most fruitful and productive. I am deeply grateful to him. Finally, I must record my deep appreciation to my wife and two children for their loving and enduring support. But for their support this work would not have been completed.

This volume evolved from a conference on "Financial Markets Economet- rics" held at the ZEW (Zentrum fiir Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung) in Mannheim, Germany in February, 1992. However, not all papers included in this volume were presented at the conference. In some cases the papers are follow-up papers to the ones presented. The purpose of the conference was to bring together researchers from several European countries to discuss their applications of recent economet- ric methods to the analysis of financial markets. From a methodological point of view the main emphasis of the conference papers was on cointe- gration analysis and ARCH modelling. In . cointegration analysis the links between long-run components of time series are studied and the methods can .be applied to the determination of equilibrium relationships between the vari- ables, whereas ARCH models (ARCH is the acronym of autoregressive condi- tional heteroskedasticity) are concerned with the measurement and analysis of changing variances in time series. These two models have been the most significant innovations' for the empirical analysis of financial time series in recent years. Six papers of this volume apply cointegration analysis (the papers by MacDonald/Marsh, Hansen, Ronning, Garbers, Kirchgassner/Wolters, and Kunst/Polasek) and seven papers deal with ARCH models (Kramer/Runde, Drost, Kunst/Polasek, Kugler, Eggington/Hall, Koedijk/Stork/deVries, and Demos/Sentana/Shah). Other econometric methods and models applied in the papers include factor analysis (Eggington/Hall and Demos/Sentana/- Shah), vector autoregressions (Kirchgassner/Wolters and Kunst/Polasek), Markov-switching models (Garbers and Kaehler /Marnet), spectral analysis (Kirchgassner/Wolters), stable Paretian distributions (Kramer/Runde and Drost) and ARFIMA models (Drost).

o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com modity markets."

Max-Min problems are two-step allocation problems in which one side must make his move knowing that the other side will then learn what the move is and optimally counter. They are fundamental in parti cular to military weapons-selection problems involving large systems such as Minuteman or Polaris, where the systems in the mix are so large that they cannot be concealed from an opponent. One must then expect the opponent to determine on an optlmal mixture of, in the case men tioned above, anti-Minuteman and anti-submarine effort. The author's first introduction to a problem of Max-Min type occurred at The RAND Corporation about 1951. One side allocates anti-missile defenses to various cities. The other side observes this allocation and then allocates missiles to those cities. If F(x, y) denotes the total residual value of the cities after the attack, with x denoting the defender's strategy and y the attacker's, the problem is then to find Max MinF(x, y) = Max MinF(x, y)] ."

Floro Ernesto Caroleo and Francesco Pastore This book was conceived to collect selected essays presented at the session on "The Labour Market Impact of the European Union Enlargements. A New Regional Geography of Europe?" of the XXII Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics (AIEL). The session aimed to stimulate the debate on the continuity/ fracture of regional patterns of development and employment in old and new European Union (EU) regions. In particular, we asked whether, and how different, the causes of emergence and the evolution of regional imbalances in the new EU members of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are compared to those in the old EU members. Several contributions in this book suggest that a factor common to all backward regions, often neglected in the literature, is to be found in their higher than average degree of structural change or, more precisely, in the hardship they expe- ence in coping with the process of structural change typical of all advanced economies. In the new EU members of CEE, structural change is still a consequence of the continuing process of transition from central planning to a market economy, but also of what Fabrizio et al. (2009) call the "second transition," namely that related to the run-up to and entry in the EU.