The basic characteristic of Modern Linear and Nonlinear Econometrics is that it presents a unified approach of modern linear and nonlinear econometrics in a concise and intuitive way. It covers four major parts of modern econometrics: linear and nonlinear estimation and testing, time series analysis, models with categorical and limited dependent variables, and, finally, a thorough analysis of linear and nonlinear panel data modeling. Distinctive features of this handbook are:

-A unified approach of both linear and nonlinear econometrics, with an integration of the theory and the practice in modern econometrics. Emphasis on sound theoretical and empirical relevance and intuition. Focus on econometric and statistical methods for the analysis of linear and nonlinear processes in economics and finance, including computational methods and numerical tools.

-Completely worked out empirical illustrations are provided throughout, the macroeconomic and microeconomic (household and firm level) data sets of which are available from the internet; these empirical illustrations are taken from finance (e.g. CAPM and derivatives), international economics (e.g. exchange rates), innovation economics (e.g. patenting), business cycle analysis, monetary economics, housing economics, labor and educational economics (e.g. demand for teachers according to gender) and many others.

-Exercises are added to the chapters, with a focus on the interpretation of results; several of these exercises involve the use of actual data that are typical for current empirical work and that are made available on the internet.

What is also distinguishable in Modern Linear and Nonlinear Econometrics is that every major topic has a number of examples, exercises or case studies. By this learning by doing' method the intention is to prepare the reader to be able to design, develop and successfully finish his or her own research and/or solve real world problems.

Sample data alone never suffice to draw conclusions about populations. Inference always requires assumptions about the population and sampling process. Statistical theory has revealed much about how strength of assumptions affects the precision of point estimates, but has had much less to say about how it affects the identification of population parameters. Indeed, it has been commonplace to think of identification as a binary event - a parameter is either identified or not - and to view point identification as a pre-condition for inference. Yet there is enormous scope for fruitful inference using data and assumptions that partially identify population parameters. This book explains why and shows how. The book presents in a rigorous and thorough manner the main elements of Charles Manski's research on partial identification of probability distributions. One focus is prediction with missing outcome or covariate data. Another is decomposition of finite mixtures, with application to the analysis of contaminated sampling and ecological inference. A third major focus is the analysis of treatment response. Whatever the particular subject under study, the presentation follows a common path. The author first specifies the sampling process generating the available data and asks what may be learned about population parameters using the empirical evidence alone. He then ask how the (typically) setvalued identification regions for these parameters shrink if various assumptions are imposed. The approach to inference that runs throughout the book is deliberately conservative and thoroughly nonparametric. Conservative nonparametric analysis enables researchers to learn from the available data without imposing untenable assumptions. It enables establishment of a domain of consensus among researchers who may hold disparate beliefs about what assumptions are appropriate. Charles F. Manski is Board of Trustees Professor at Northwestern University. He is author of Identification Problems in the Social Sciences and Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics. He is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the Econometric Society.

To derive rational and convincible solutions to practical decision making problems in complex and hierarchical human organizations, the decision making problems are formulated as relevant mathematical programming problems which are solved by developing optimization techniques so as to exploit characteristics or structural features of the formulated problems. In particular, for resolving con?ict in decision making in hierarchical managerial or public organizations, the multi level formula tion of the mathematical programming problems has been often employed together with the solution concept of Stackelberg equilibrium. However, weconceivethatapairoftheconventionalformulationandthesolution concept is not always suf?cient to cope with a large variety of decision making situations in actual hierarchical organizations. The following issues should be taken into consideration in expression and formulation of decision making problems. Informulationofmathematicalprogrammingproblems, itistacitlysupposedthat decisions are made by a single person while game theory deals with economic be havior of multiple decision makers with fully rational judgment. Because two level mathematical programming problems are interpreted as static Stackelberg games, multi level mathematical programming is relevant to noncooperative game theory; in conventional multi level mathematical programming models employing the so lution concept of Stackelberg equilibrium, it is assumed that there is no communi cation among decision makers, or they do not make any binding agreement even if there exists such communication. However, for decision making problems in such as decentralized large ?rms with divisional independence, it is quite natural to sup pose that there exists communication and some cooperative relationship among the decision maker

Econometric theory, as presented in textbooks and the econometric literature generally, is a somewhat disparate collection of findings. Its essential nature is to be a set of demonstrated results that increase over time, each logically based on a specific set of axioms or assumptions, yet at every moment, rather than a finished work, these inevitably form an incomplete body of knowledge. The practice of econometric theory consists of selecting from, applying, and evaluating this literature, so as to test its applicability and range. The creation, development, and use of computer software has led applied economic research into a new age. This book describes the history of econometric computation from 1950 to the present day, based upon an interactive survey involving the collaboration of the many econometricians who have designed and developed this software. It identifies each of the econometric software packages that are made available to and used by economists and econometricians worldwide.

A collection of papers from leading thinkers to celebrate the work of the late Wynne Godley, and his enormous contribution to the field of monetary economics. Chapters include in-depth discussions of the revolutionary economic modelling systems that Godley introduced, as well as his prescient concerns about the global financial crash.

This book was mainly written while I stayed at the Catholic University of Louvain. Professor Anton P. Barten was the one who did not only give me a warm welcome in Louvain, but also supported my research with most valuable comments and constructive criticisms. In addition I benefitted from dis cussions with Erik Schokkaert, Denis de Crombrugghe and Jo Baras on various subjects, such as the small-sample correction of Chapter 9. The arduous task of transferring my neat handwriting into a readable typescript was excellently taken care of by Brs. E. Crabbe and notably Brs. F. Duij sens, even after working hours. Mrs. A. Molders prevented me of making serious abuse of the English language. My admiration for Carien, finally, is an exponential function of the patience and enthusiasm with which she sup ported my research. Chapter I is a general introduction to the subject of linkage models, and it contains few mathematical elaborations. Chapters 2 to 4 use more, but elementary, mathematics, and treat several aspects related to the deriva tion, interpretation and estimation of linkage models. Chapter 2 deals vii tll the theory of import allocation models, Chapter J treats the problem of defining and interpreting elasticities of substitution, while Chapter 4 is concerned with the econometric problems related to the estimation of mul tivariate models with linear restrictions, such as import allocation models."

Understanding the structure of a large econometric model is rather like the art of winetasting or like the art of playing a musical instrument. The quality of a wine results from a complex combination of various elements such as its colour which should be clear and crystalline, its smell which can be decomposed into a general aroma and a variety of particular characteristics, more or less persistent depending on the type and the age of the wine, its taste, of course, which again is a complex system whose equilibrium and charm depend on the whole set of ingredients: alcohol, tannin, glycerine, sugar, acidity . . . Similarly, a clarinetist's musicianship depends on the quality of his instrument, on his embouchure, fingering, tonguing and articu lation techniques, on his sense for rhythm, phasing and tone colour. However, the enchantment produced by a Romanee-Conti or by a brilliant performance of Brahm's F minor sonata for clarinet and piano arises from a process which is at the same time time much simpler and much more complex than the straightforward juxtaposition of individual causal relations. In recent years econometricians and macro-economists have been challenged by the problem of keeping abreast with an ever increasing number of increasingly more complex large econometric models. The necessity of developing systematic analytical tools to study the often implicit and hidden structure of these models has become more evident.

The purpose of this volume is to honour a pioneer in the field of econometrics, A. L. Nagar, on the occasion of his sixtieth birthday. Fourteen econometricians from six countries on four continents have contributed to this project. One of us was his teacher, some of us were his students, many of us were his colleagues, all of us are his friends. Our volume opens with a paper by L. R. Klein which discusses the meaning and role of exogenous variables in struc tural and vector-autoregressive econometric models. Several examples from recent macroeconomic history are presented and the notion of Granger-causality is discussed. This is followed by two papers dealing with an issue of considerable relevance to developing countries, such as India; the measurement of the inequality in the distribution of income. The paper by C. T. West and H. Theil deals with the problem of measuring inequality of all components of total income vvithin a region, rather than just labour income. It applies its results to the regions of the United States. The second paper in this group, by N. Kakwani, derives the large-sample distributions of several popular inequality measures, thus providing a method for drawing large-sample inferences about the differences in inequality between regions. The techniques are applied to the regions of Cote d'Ivoire. The next group of papers is devoted to econometric theory in the context of the dynamic, simultaneous, linear equations model. The first, by P. J."

Financial econometrics combines mathematical and statistical theory and techniques to understand and solve problems in financial economics. Modeling and forecasting financial time series, such as prices, returns, interest rates, financial ratios, and defaults, are important parts of this field.

In Financial Econometrics, you'll be introduced to this growing discipline and the concepts associated with it--from background material on probability theory and statistics to information regarding the properties of specific models and their estimation procedures.

With this book as your guide, you'll become familiar with: Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and GARCH modeling Principal components analysis (PCA) and factor analysis Stable processes and ARMA and GARCH models with fat-tailed errors Robust estimation methods Vector autoregressive and cointegrated processes, including advanced estimation methods for cointegrated systems And much more

The experienced author team of Svetlozar Rachev, Stefan Mittnik, Frank Fabozzi, Sergio Focardi, and Teo Jasic not only presents you with an abundant amount of information on financial econometrics, but they also walk you through a wide array of examples to solidify your understanding of the issues discussed.

Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Financial Econometrics provides comprehensive coverage of this discipline and clear explanations of how the models associated with it fit into today's investment management process.

This book contains some of the results from the research project "Demand for Food in the Nordic Countries," which was initiated in 1988 by Professor Olof Bolin of the Agricultural University in Ultuna, Sweden and by Professor Karl Iohan Weckman, of the University of Helsinki, Finland. A pilot study was carried out by Bengt Assarsson, which in 1989 led to a successful application for a research grant from the NKJ (The Nordic Contact Body for Agricultural Research) through the national research councils for agricultural research in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We are very grateful to Olof Bolin and Karl Iohan Weckman, without whom this project would not have come about, and to the national research councils in the Nordic countries for the generous financial support we have received for this project. We have received comments and suggestions from many colleagues, and this has improved our work substantially. At the start of the project a reference group was formed, consisting of Professor Olof Bolin, Professor Anders Klevmarken, Agr. lie. Gert Aage Nielsen, Professor Karl Iohan Weckman and Cando oecon. Per Halvor Vale. Gert Aage Nielsen left the group early in the project for a position in Landbanken, and was replaced by Professor Lars Otto, while Per Halvor Vale soon joined the research staff. The reference group has given us useful suggestions and encouraged us in our work. Weare very grateful to them.

This book deals with the methods and practical uses of regression and factor analysis. An exposition is given of ordinary, generalized, two- and three-stage estimates for regression analysis, the method of principal components being applied for factor analysis. When establishing an econometric model, the two ways of analysis complement each other. The model was realized as part of the 'Interplay' research project concerning the economies of the European Common Market countries at the Econometrics Department of the Tilburg School of Economics. The Interplay project aims at: a. elaborating more or less uniformly defined and estimated models; b. clarifying the economic structure and the economic policy possible with the linked models of the European Community countries. Besides the model for the Netherlands published here, the models for Belgium, Italy, West Germany and the United Kingdom are ready for linking and for publishing later on. The econometric model presented in this book and upon which the Interplay model is based comprises eleven structural and twenty-one definitional equations; it is estimated with ordinary, two- and three-stage least squares. The analysis of the model is directed at eliminating multicollinearity, accor ding to D.E. Farrar's and R. Glauber's method. In practice, however, complete elimination of multicollinearity leads to an exclusion of certain relations which is not entirely satisfactory. Economic relations can be dealt with more fully by analyzing the variables involved in detail by factor analysis. In this study factor analysis is also a suitable method for a comparative analysis of different periods."

This book provides a game theoretic model of interaction among VoIP telecommunications providers regarding their willingness to enter peering agreements with one another. The author shows that the incentive to peer is generally based on savings from otherwise payable long distance fees. At the same time, termination fees can have a countering and dominant effect, resulting in an environment in which VoIP firms decide against peering. Various scenarios of peering and rules for allocation of the savings are considered. The first part covers the relevant aspects of game theory and network theory, trying to give an overview of the concepts required in the subsequent application. The second part of the book introduces first a model of how the savings from peering can be calculated and then turns to the actual formation of peering relationships between VoIP firms. The conditions under which firms are willing to peer are then described, considering the possible influence of a regulatory body.

This book is based on an international conference organised by the Applied Econo- metric Association (AEA) on International Macroeconomic Modelling which was held in Brussels at the Commission of the European Communities in December 1983. On behalf of the Applied Econometric Association, we would like to extend our thanks to all participants and contributors. This conference would not have been possible without the cooperation and support of the Commission of the European Economic Communities and of its Directorate General for Economics and Financial Affairs (DGII) staff, in particular M. Emerson, A. Dramais, and also H. Serbat of the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Our thanks go also to J.P. Ancot for his constructive comments concerning the structure of this book. We are grateful to M. Russo, R. Maldague and Y. Ullmo for opening the con- ference with their stimulating review and comments on the use of international macroeconomic models; and to R. Bird, A.M. Costa, A. Crockett, H. Guitton, J.C. Milleron, J. Paelinck, J. Waelbroeck for chairing the scientific sessions. P. Artus F. Gagey O. Guvenen vi INTRODUCTION The main focus of this book is to present recent developments in the construction and use of international macroeconometric models. Four main aspects are selected: (i) analysis of trade linkages and exchange rate determination; (ii) modelling and simulating the international economy; (iii) international policy coordination; (iv) the use of international macroeconomic models.

The field of econometrics has gone through remarkable changes during the last thirty-five years. Widening its earlier focus on testing macroeconomic theories, it has become a rather comprehensive discipline concemed with the development of statistical methods and their application to the whole spectrum of economic data. This development becomes apparent when looking at the biography of an econometrician whose illustrious research and teaching career started about thirty-five years ago and who will retire very soon after his 65th birthday. This is Gerd Hansen, professor of econometrics at the Christian Albrechts University at Kiel and to whom this volume with contributions from colleagues and students has been dedicated. He has shaped the econometric landscape in and beyond Germany throughout these thirty-five years. At the end of the 1960s he developed one of the first econometric models for the German econ omy which adhered c10sely to the traditions put forth by the Cowles commission."

A function is convex if its epigraph is convex. This geometrical structure has very strong implications in terms of continuity and differentiability. Separation theorems lead to optimality conditions and duality for convex problems. A function is quasiconvex if its lower level sets are convex. Here again, the geo metrical structure of the level sets implies some continuity and differentiability properties for quasiconvex functions. Optimality conditions and duality can be derived for optimization problems involving such functions as well. Over a period of about fifty years, quasiconvex and other generalized convex functions have been considered in a variety of fields including economies, man agement science, engineering, probability and applied sciences in accordance with the need of particular applications. During the last twenty-five years, an increase of research activities in this field has been witnessed. More recently generalized monotonicity of maps has been studied. It relates to generalized convexity off unctions as monotonicity relates to convexity. Generalized monotonicity plays a role in variational inequality problems, complementarity problems and more generally, in equilibrium prob lems."

Recent economic history suggests that a key element in economic growth and development for many countries has been an aggressive export policy and a complementary import policy. Such policies can be very effective provided that resources are used wisely to encourage exports from industries that can be com petitive in the international arena. Also, import protection must be used carefully so that it encourages infant industries instead of providing rents to industries that are not competitive. Policy makers may use a variety of methods of analysis in planning trade policy. As computing power has grown in recent years increasing attention has been give to economic models as one of the most powerful aids to policy making. These models can be used on the one hand to help in selecting export industries to encourage and infant industries to protect and on the other hand to chart the larger effects ofttade policy on the entire economy. While many models have been developed in recent years there has not been any analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models. Therefore, this monograph provides a review and analysis of the models which can be used to analyze dynamic comparative advantage."

National income estimates date back to the late 17th century, but only in the half-century since the Second World War have economic accounts developed in their present form, becoming an indispensable tool for macroeconomic analysis, projections and policy formulation. Furthermore, it was in this period that the United Nations issued several versions of a system of national accounts (SNA) to make possible economic comparisons on a consistent basis. The latest version, SNA 1993, published in early 1994, occasioned this collection of essays and commentaries. The three chief objectives of the volume are: to enhance understanding of socioeconomic accounts generally and of SNA 1993 in particular; to offer a critique of SNA 1993, including constructive suggestions for future revisions of the system, making it even more useful for its national and international purposes; and to serve as a textbook, or book of readings in conjunction with SNA 1993, for courses in economic accounts.

hen my husband died in 1973 I had to go through his W papers. Some of them were still in manuscript form and had never before been published. I selected several of these, plus a number of other articles that had appeared in periodicals but were no longer in print. This book is the result. At my request Richard Ebeling wrote an introduction which he has done in great detail. The depth of Ebeling's understanding of my husband's work is certainly apparent in his writing. I am pleased to have the Ludwig von Mises Institute present this volume to the public. Margit von Mises New York City September 1989 vii Introduction I I n the 1920s and the 1930s, Ludwig von Mises was recognized as one of the leading economic theorists on the European Conti nent. I F. A. Hayek has said that Mises's critique of the possibilities for economic calculation under socialism had "the most profound impression on my generation . . . . To none of us '" who read his] book Socialism] when it appeared was the world ever the same again., 2 Lord Lionel Robbins, in introducing the Austrian School literature on money and the trade cycle to English-speaking readers in 1931, emphasized the "marvelous renaissance" the "School of Vienna" had experienced "under the leadership of . . . Professor Mises."

This book grew out of a 'Doctorat D'Etat' thesis presented at the University of Dijon-Institut Mathematique Economiques (lME). It aims to show that quantity rationing theory provides the means of improving macroeconometric modelling in the study of struc- tural changes. The empirical results presented in the last chapter (concerning Portuguese economy) and in the last Appendix (con- cerning the French economy), although preliminary, suggested that the effort is rewarding and should be continued. My debts are many. An important part of the research work was accomplished during my visit to the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (lNSEE, Paris), where I have beneficted from stimulating discussions (particularly with P. Villa) and infor- matical support. I have also received comments and suggestions from R. Quandt, J.-J. Laffont, P. Kooiman and P.-Y. Henin. I am specially indebted to P. Balestra for encouraging and valuable discussions, particularly in the field of econometric methods. My thanks go also to an anonymous referee. His constructive criticism and suggestions resulted in a number of improvements to an earlier version of this book. I cannot forget my friend A. Costa from BP A (Porto) who has helped me in the preparation of this work. Last but not least, I would like to thank my wife for her encouragement and patience throughout these years. Of course, I am the only one responsible for any remaining errors.

In the autumn of 1961 Jan Salomon ('Mars') Cramer was appointed to the newly established chair of econometrics at the University of Amsterdam. This volume is published to commemorate this event. It is well-known how much econometrics has developed over the period under consideration, the 25 years that elapsed between 1961 and 1986. This is specifically true for the areas in which Cramer has been actively interested. We mention the theory and measurement of consumer behaviour; money and income; regression, correla tion and forecasting. In the present volume this development will be high lighted. Sixteen contributions have been sollicited from scholars all over the world who have belonged to the circle of academic friends of Cramer for a shorter or longer part of the period of 25 years. The contributions fall broadly speaking into the four areas mentioned above. Theory and measurement of consumer behaviour is represented by four papers, whereas a fifth paper deals with a related area. Richard Blundell and Costas Meghir devote a paper to the estimation of Engel curves. They apply a discrete choice model to British (individual) data from the Family Expenditure Survey 1981. Their aim is to assess the impact of individual characteristics such as income, demographic structure, location, wages and prices on commodity expenditure."

The optimisation of economic systems over time, and in an uncertain environment, is central to the study of economic behaviour. The behaviour of rational decision makers, whether they are market agents, firms, or governments and their agencies, is governed by decisions designed to seeure the best outcomes subject to the perceived information and economic responses (inlcuding those of other agents). Economic behaviour has therefore to be analysed in terms of the outcomes of a multiperiod stochastic optimisation process containing four main components: the economic responses (the dynamic constraints, represented by an economic model); the objec tive function (the goals and their priorities); the conditioning information (expected exogenous events and the expected future state of the economy); and risk manage ment (how uncertainties are accommodated). The papers presented in this book all analyse some aspect of economic behaviour related to the objectives, information, or risk components of the decision process. While the construction of economic models obviously also has a vital role to play, that component has received much greater (or almost exclusive) attention elsewhere. These papers examine optimising behaviour in a wide range of economic problems, both theoretical and applied. They reflect a variety of concerns: economic responses under rational expectations; the Lucas critique and optimal fiscal or monetary poli eies; market management; partly endogenous goals; evaluating government reactions; locational decisions; uncertainty and information structures; and forecasting with endogenous reactions."