International commodity markets have traditionally attracted the attention of economists, econometricians, and policy makers especially in and following politically tumultuous times. For instance, the primary commodity price boom of 1973/74 and the subsequent period of highly volatile world market prices initiated increased research on commodity markets which quickly focused on possible price stabilization schemes, particularly on buffer stocks. Simultaneously, the issue clearly advanced in priority on the political agenda, such that the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) proposed an "Integrated Program for Commodities" (IPC) intended to stabilize the world market prices of ten so-called "core commodities"l (UNCTAD (1974, 1976a), Behrman (1979)). Many developing nations welcomed the IPC almost enthusiastically, but it did not receive more than lukewarm support by major industrialized countries, apparently due to the experience with some thirty international commodity agreements past World War II2. Critical evaluations have, among others, been presented by McNicol (1978), Gordon-Ashworth (1984), and Macbean & Nguyen (1987). The most detailed of these studies is Gordon-Ashworth's, who concludes that "on balance ... the performance of international commodity agreements has been too unreliable and their distributive effects too uneven to secure the development goals that have been set" (1984, p. 284)3. Consequently, the IPC turned out to be quite controversial a topic on the UNCTAD's 1976 meeting in Nairobi and has not been able to gain any impetus since. lThese were cocoa, coffee, copper, cotton, jute, rubber, sisal, sugar, tea, and tin.

This sequel to the author's "Early Development in Mathematical Economics" covers developments in this field after the appearance of Cournot's "Recherches" in 1838 and until the publication of Jevons' "Theory" in 1871.

This book presents a theory of the general dynamic economic equilibrium which is a development of the static theory of Walras and Pareto. The work has built up an analytical model of the effective, current movement of an economic system, founded on the logic of the individual changing programmes - a basis for finding out the laws of all types of endogenous and exogenous movements of the economy. Indeed, the model can be used in the treatment of the typical problems of dynamic economics, by means of the author's method of variational dynamic analysis.

This collection of papers describes advances in the measurement of innovation output, principally through the use of a new technique based on scanning of trade and technical journals. Experience in several countries is assessed and the strength and weaknesses of the technique discussed. The conclusion is that, taken together with recent advances in the design of questionnaires for postal surveys of innovation, this technique provides a radically improved data source for testing innovation theories and for effective policy analysis.

One of the major issues of policy makers in The Netherlands is to reduce the high unemployment rate. In 1988 economic growth was substantial in all OECD countries, which led to an increase in employment. The economic growth also induced extra labour supply, especially of married women, which altogether led to a smaller reduction in the unemployment rate than could have been expected in view of the economic growth (see Rapportage Arbeidsmarkt, 1989). The estimated official unemployment rate in 1988 is still 11. 0% of the total labour force. Therefore, there is a strong interest in policies that seek to increase employment (the demand side of the labour market) as well as in understanding the factors that influence labour supply. In this thesis we try to further such understanding by constructing a detailed model of household labour supply. The data we use relate t9 Dutch households in 1985. In that year the official rate of unemployment was 15. 9%. A distinguishing feature of Dutch labour supply is its very low level of female labour force participation, e. g. in 1985 it was only 35. 2%. Apart from Spain, which had a similar participation rate, most other industrialized OECD countries had a participation rate of around 60% (see OECD Labor Force Statistics).

The macro disequilibrium model for Switzerland presented in this study grew out of a research project which was generously financed by Swiss Natio- nal Science Foundation. I am indebted to Prof. Hans Wtirgler and Prof. Heidi Schelbert for encouraging and supporting this work in many ways. The present book is the revised version of a paper that was accepted as a "Habilitations- schrift" by the University of ZUrich. Part of the research leading to this book was done during a stay at Princeton University, where I benefited from a stimulating environment, the gratuitous use of facilities and the helpful advise of Richard E. Quandt. Earlier disequilibrium studies for Switzerland were discussed in various seminars (Princeton, Universite de Montreal, C.O.R.E., 1988 Conference on European Unemployment in Chelwood Gate, 2nd Conference on Disequilibrium Econometrics at INSEE, 1989 European Spring Meeting on Macroeconomics in Paris) and published in the 'European Economic Review' and 'Recherches Eco- nomiques de Louvain'. Numerous people - including A.S. Blinder, L. Salvas- Bronsard, J.H. Dreze, S.M. Goldfeld, C. Gourieroux, P. Kooiman, J.P. Lambert, G. Laroque, H.S. Rosen, H.R. Sneessens" J. Waelbroeck and anonymous referees of the two journals - provided constructive comments on these earlier papers. Their suggestions - as well as the critical remarks by a referee of Springer 'Lecture Notes' - are partly reflected in the present book.

This book presents statistical methods for analysis of the duration of events. The primary focus is on models for single-spell data, events in which individual agents are observed for a single duration. Some attention is also given to multiple-spell data. The first part of the book covers model specification, including both structural and reduced form models and models with and without neglected heterogeneity. The book next deals with likelihood based inference about such models, with sections on full and semiparametric specification. A final section treats graphical and numerical methods of specification testing. This is the first published exposition of current econometric methods for the study of duration data.

Using panel data of individual firms drawn from French surveys, a structural analysis is developed to study the formation of production plans and the rationality of expectations. The production decision of a firm is defined as the optimal solution of a dynamic stochastic optimization problem. The empirical work amounts to recovering the structural parameters characterizing the model of the firm from estimates of the derived decision rule. The preceding analysis of production plans is based on the assumption that firms are rational. To justify this assumption, direct tests offer evidence that the Rational Expectations Hypothesis may not be rejected for quantity variables.

In this book voter behavior is analyzed from an economist's point of view. The influence of an economy on voter behavior is investigated and this behavior is analyzed in the perspective commonly used by economists. Econom(etr)ic tools are applied in the analyses. The book contains empirical analyses linking demographic variables to voter turnout and party choice using cross-section data for the Netherlands. Attention is focused on whether turnout and party choice decisions are taken sequentially or simultaneously by voters. An empirical test supports the former. Using these results, behavioral models of party choice and voter turnout are developed. Existing econometric analyses of voting behavior are put on a more solid theoretical footing. In both models a group perspective is used, in line with increased attention for this perspective in economics and political science. Empirical applications of the party choice model allow for an estimation of relative preferences for public goods, using the revealed preference mechanism provided by voting (intention). An alternative method for detecting these preferences, a new survey design, is discussed as well. In the turnout model, attention is fo- cused on the role of "civic duty" in a group context.

Contains essays on consumer demand and econometrics written in honour of Professor Henri Theil. The essays report the results of current pioneering research work and cover a variety of topics including inequality tests, mixing forecasts and dynamic panel data models.

In this book, the author adopts a state space approach to time series modeling to provide a new, computer-oriented method for building models for vector-valued time series. This second edition has been completely reorganized and rewritten. Background material leading up to the two types of estimators of the state space models is collected and presented coherently in four consecutive chapters. New, fuller descriptions are given of state space models for autoregressive models commonly used in the econometric and statistical literature. Backward innovation models are newly introduced in this edition in addition to the forward innovation models, and both are used to construct instrumental variable estimators for the model matrices. Further new items in this edition include statistical properties of the two types of estimators, more details on multiplier analysis and identification of structural models using estimated models, incorporation of exogenous signals and choice of model size. A whole new chapter is devoted to modeling of integrated, nearly integrated and co-integrated time series.

The contents of this volume comprise the proceedings of the conference, "Equilibrium theory and applications." Some of the recent developments in general equilibrium theory in the perspective of actual and potential applications are presented. The conference was organized in honor of Jacques Drèze on the occasion of his sixtieth birthday. Held at C.O.R.E., it was also the unanimous recognition, stressed by Gérard Debreu in his Address, of his role as "the architect and builder" of the Center for Operations Research and Econometrics. An introductory address by Gérard Debreu comprises Part 1 of the volume. The rest of the volume is divided into four parts spanning the scope of the conference. Part 2 is on incomplete markets, increasing returns, and information, Part 3 on equilibrium and dynamices, Part 4 on employment, imperfect competition, and macroeconomics, and Part 5 on applied general equilibrium models.

1. 1 Motivation and Definition of Topic To provide motivation and to help define the topic of this study, important links between specific areas of economic theory are first highlighted. (i) Learning and Rational Expectations Theory In a standard rational expectations setting, agents in equilibrium have all the information about the model that enables them to correctly forecast future payoff-relevant variables. What rational expectations theory in its standard form does not tell us is what happens outside a rational expectations equilibrium. Less than complete knowledge of the model is a possible way to represent a situation outside the rational expectations equilibrium. It is natural to assume that agents recognize error and optimally utilize all available external information to improve on their information level, i. e. learn. Based on the information acquired by learning they modify their behavior. Under certain conditions learning steers the economy to the rational expectations equilibrium (Spear (1989), Blume, Bray and Easley (1982), Townsend (1983". This literature shows that learning is a possible mechanism to acquire the necessary level of information that agents are assumed to possess in a rational expectations equilibrium and hence there is a clear link between rational expectations theory and the 2 theory of learning. This fact is also emphasized among others by Friedman (1975), Pesaran (1987) and DeCanio (1979). (ii) Rational Expectations and Econometrics The equilibrium consequences of the rational expectations hypothesis are discussed in a considerable body of literature - cf.

This collection of papers delivered at the Fifth International Symposium in Economic Theory and Econometrics in 1988 is devoted to the estimation and testing of models that impose relatively weak restrictions on the stochastic behaviour of data. Particularly in highly non-linear models, empirical results are very sensitive to the choice of the parametric form of the distribution of the observable variables, and often nonparametric and semiparametric models are a preferable alternative. Methods and applications that do not require string parametric assumptions for their validity, that are based on kernels and on series expansions, and methods for independent and dependent observations are investigated and developed in these essays by renowned econometricians.

This volume contains a refereed selection of revised papers which were originally presented at the Second International Conference on Econometric Decision Models, University of Hagen (FernUni versitat). The conference was held in Haus Nordhelle, a meeting place in the mountainous area " Sauerland," some 50 kilometers south of Hagen, on August 29 - September 1, 1989. Some details about this conference are given in the first paper, they need not be repeated here. The 40 papers included in this volume are organized in 10 "parts," shown in the table of contents. Included are such "fashionable" topics like "optimal control," "cointegration" and "rational expec tations models." In each part, the papers have been arranged alphabetically by author, unless there were good reasons for a different arrangement. To facilitate the decision making of the readers, all papers (except a few short ones) contain an abstract, a list of keywords and a table of contents. At the end of the proceedings volume, there is a list of authors. More than ten years ago, I began to organize meetings of econometricians, mainly called "seminar" or " colloquium." One major purpose of these meetings has always been to improve international cooperation of econometric model builders (and model users) from "the East" and "the West." Unprecedented changes to the better have taken place recently ("perestroika"). For a large fraction of participants from the Soviet Union, the 1989 conference was the first conference in a Western country."

The theory of economic development is a branch of economic dynamics. Any discussion of the theory must involve dynamics even though not all dynamic problems are necessarily related to economic development. The theory's primary locus is upon the nice paths of economic variables. Stationary states, which have been the main concern of modem economic development theory, are actually special cases of economic dynamics. In this study, we propose an economic development theory within the framework of input-output systems and neoclassical economics. No political problems will be dealt with, although this does not mean that questions such as why Japan had a higher growth rate than China in the past are not important. Similarly, rather than dealing with the psychological and institutional aspects of in economic development processes we only suggest ways (or methods, as Hicks would call them) for analyzing what determines economic development from the point of view of "pure" economics. Our main contribution to economic growth theory is that we investigate various nonlinear dynamic phenomena such as bifurcations and economic cycles. We emphasize that oscillations and structural changes are not rare but universal in a progressive economy. No economic system can be stabilized forever if change is permitted.

This volume compares strategic properties of the leading macroeconometric models of the United States. It summarizes the work of an ongoing seminar supported by the National Science Foundation and chaired by Lawrence R. Klein of the University of Pennsylvania. The Seminar meets three times annually. Comparisons are made across models for such characteristics as conventional multipliers (fiscal, monetary, and supply side shocks), J-curve response to dollar depreciation, and forecast performance under consistent assumptions. There are in-depth comparisons of some models and investigation of use of high frequency information to improve forecasts. There are also analyses of the sources of forecast error. The core structures of models, especially their ISLM cores, are compared. The volume contains one chapter on comparison across models of different developing countries. In addition to the contributions by participating model builders who meet regularly, the book contains critical appraisals by outsiders. The contributors include many distinguished economists in model use and analysis. Many are operators of the countries best known modelling facilities. The introduction was written by Lawrence R. Klein, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Science in 1980, for his work in construction and use of econometric models.

This is an excerpt from the 4-volume dictionary of economics, a reference book which aims to define the subject of economics today. 1300 subject entries in the complete work cover the broad themes of economic theory. This extract concentrates on econometrics.

This book presents estimates of the sources of economic growth in Canada. The experimental measures account for the reproducibility of capital inputs in an input-output framework and show that advances in technology are more important for economic growth than previously estimated. Traditional measures of multifactor productivity advance are also presented. Extensive comparisons relate the two approaches to each change and labour productivity. The book will be of interest to macroeconomists studying economic growth, capital accumulation, technical advance, growth accounting, and input-output analysis.

This book deals with the following issues: the analysis, estimation and assessment of alternatived models of income distribution, the specification and evaluation of income inequality measures the analysis and measurement of poverty and its rationale, the scope and methodological power of the social accounting matrix (SAM) in the analysis of the functional and personal distribution of income and the family income multiplier, the study of the source and reliability of income distribution data, the decomposition of income inequality measures, the asymptotic distributions and inferential analysis of income inequalities, and an inquiry on the income distribution and income inequality of Eastern European Countries under socialism. New models on income and wealth distribution are specified and their corresponding properties and goodness of fit are discussed. A multivariate approach to the measurement of poverty is developed and applied, and a compact survey of the literature is presented. The book can be used as a text in advanced undergraduate and graduate courses dealing with the theory, model specifications, methods and applications of income and wealth distribution, income inequality and poverty assessment in measurement and the use of SAMs in the analysis of income distribution.

This book provides an accessible presentation of the standard statistical techniques used by labor economists. It emphasises both the input and the output of empirical analysis and covers five major topics concerning econometric methods used in labor economics: regression and related methods, choice modelling, selectivity issues, duration analysis, and policy evaluation techniques. Each of these is presented in terms of model specification, possible estimation problems, diagnostic checking, and interpretation of the output. It aims to provide guidance to practitioners on how to use the techniques and how to make sense of the results that are produced. It covers methods that are considered to be "standard" tools in labor economics, but which are often given only a brief and highly technical treatment in econometrics textbooks.
It will be a useful reference for postgraduates and advanced undergraduates, researchers embarking on empirical labor market analysis, and for more experienced economists wishing to apply these techniques for the first time.

This thesis is a theoretical study of the optimal dynamic policies of a, to some extent, slowly adjusting firm that faces an exogeneously given technological progress and an exogeneously given business cycle. It belongs to the area of mathematical economics. It is intended to appeal to mathematical economists in the first place, economists in the second place and mathematicians in the third place. It entails an attempt to stretch the limits of the application of deterministic dynamic optimisation to economics, in particular to firm behaviour. A well-known. Dutch economist (and trained mathematician) recently stated in 1 a local university newspaper that mathematical economists give economics a bad reputation, since they formulate their problems from a mathematical point of view and they are only interested in technical, mathematical problems. At the same time, however, "profound as economists may be, when it comes to extending or modifying the existing theory to make it applicable to a certain economic problem, an understanding of optimal control theory (which is the mathematical theory used in this thesis, ovh) based solely on heuristic arguments will often turn out to be inadequate" (SydS"

Providing an evaluation of procedures for quantifying the effects of non-tariff barriers, this book examines the theoretical bases for alternative procedures for measuring NTBs effects, and also presents a critical survey of previous studies that utilized these empirical studies.

In this book interrelated factor demand models are surveyed. New methods are developed and are analysed empirically using Dutch and U.K. time series data. New methods are discussed for obtaining closed form solutions of linear ratinal expectations models, providing deeper insights into the identification of structural parameters of underlying theoretical models; recently developed time series techniques are applied in order to estimate structural parameters and test for model specification, stationarity and stability through time; new models are developed in which the rather stringent and questionable restrictions of symmetry generally imposed upon stochastic adjustment models of labour demand are relaxed, the models are analysed empirically using time series data of Dutch and U.K. manufacturing production and nonproduction workers.