This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new developments and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, either in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, or the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, and methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas, as well as their developments informing the mainstream. In the early 21st century, climate change and the forecasting of health expenditures and population are topics of pressing importance.

Spatial econometrics deals with spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, critical aspects of the data used by regional scientists. These characteristics may cause standard econometric techniques to become inappropriate. In this book, I combine several recent research results to construct a comprehensive approach to the incorporation of spatial effects in econometrics. My primary focus is to demonstrate how these spatial effects can be considered as special cases of general frameworks in standard econometrics, and to outline how they necessitate a separate set of methods and techniques, encompassed within the field of spatial econometrics. My viewpoint differs from that taken in the discussion of spatial autocorrelation in spatial statistics - e.g., most recently by Cliff and Ord (1981) and Upton and Fingleton (1985) - in that I am mostly concerned with the relevance of spatial effects on model specification, estimation and other inference, in what I caIl a model-driven approach, as opposed to a data-driven approach in spatial statistics. I attempt to combine a rigorous econometric perspective with a comprehensive treatment of methodological issues in spatial analysis.

This book helps and promotes the use of machine learning tools and techniques in econometrics and explains how machine learning can enhance and expand the econometrics toolbox in theory and in practice. Throughout the volume, the authors raise and answer six questions: 1) What are the similarities between existing econometric and machine learning techniques? 2) To what extent can machine learning techniques assist econometric investigation? Specifically, how robust or stable is the prediction from machine learning algorithms given the ever-changing nature of human behavior? 3) Can machine learning techniques assist in testing statistical hypotheses and identifying causal relationships in 'big data? 4) How can existing econometric techniques be extended by incorporating machine learning concepts? 5) How can new econometric tools and approaches be elaborated on based on machine learning techniques? 6) Is it possible to develop machine learning techniques further and make them even more readily applicable in econometrics? As the data structures in economic and financial data become more complex and models become more sophisticated, the book takes a multidisciplinary approach in developing both disciplines of machine learning and econometrics in conjunction, rather than in isolation. This volume is a must-read for scholars, researchers, students, policy-makers, and practitioners, who are using econometrics in theory or in practice.

Introduction to Econometrics has been written as a core textbook for a first course in econometrics taken by undergraduate or graduate students. It is intended for students taking a single course in econometrics with a view towards doing practical data work. It will also be highly useful for students interested in understanding the basics of econometric theory with a view towards future study of advanced econometrics. To achieve this end, it has a practical emphasis, showing how a wide variety of models can be used with the types of data sets commonly used by economists. However, it also has enough discussion of the underlying econometric theory to give the student a knowledge of the statistical tools used in advanced econometrics courses.

Key Features:
* A non-technical summary of the basic tools of econometrics is given in chapters 1 and 2, which allows the reader to quickly start empirical work.
* The foundation offered in the first two chapters makes the theoretical econometric material, which begins in chapter 3, more accessible.
* Provides a good balance between econometric theory and empirical applications.
* Discusses a wide range of models used by applied economists including many variants of the regression model (with extensions for panel data), time series models (including a discussion of unit roots and cointegration) and qualitative choice models (probit and logit).

An extensive collection of web-based supplementary materials is provided for this title, including: data sets, problem sheets with worked through answers, empirical projects, sample exercises with answers, and slides for lecturers.
URL: www.wileyeurope.com/college/koop

Analyze key indicators more accurately to make smarter market moves The Economic Indicator Handbook helps investors more easily evaluate economic trends, to better inform investment decision making and other key strategic financial planning. Written by a Bloomberg Senior Economist, this book presents a visual distillation of the indicators every investor should follow, with clear explanation of how they're measured, what they mean, and how that should inform investment thinking. The focus on graphics, professional application, Bloomberg terminal functionality, and practicality makes this guide a quick, actionable read that could immediately start improving investment outcomes. Coverage includes gross domestic product, employment data, industrial production, new residential construction, consumer confidence, retail and food service sales, and commodities, plus guidance on the secret indicators few economists know or care about. Past performance can predict future results if you know how to read the indicators. Modern investing requires a careful understanding of the macroeconomic forces that lift and topple markets on a regular basis, and how they shift to move entire economies. This book is a visual guide to recognizing these forces and tracking their behavior, helping investors identify entry and exit points that maximize profit and minimize loss. * Quickly evaluate economic trends * Make more informed investment decisions * Understand the most essential indicators * Translate predictions into profitable actions Savvy market participants know how critical certain indicators are to the formulation of a profitable, effective market strategy. A daily indicator check can inform day-to-day investing, and long-term tracking can result in a stronger, more robust portfolio. For the investor who knows that better information leads to better outcomes, The Economic Indicator Handbook is an exceptionally useful resource.

Petri Nets were defined for the study of discrete events systems and later extended for many purposes including dependability assessment. In our knowledge, no book deals specifically with the use of different type of PN to dependability. We propose in addition to bring a focus on the adequacy of Petri net types to the study of various problems related to dependability such as risk analysis and probabilistic assessment. In the first part, the basic models of PN and some useful extensions are briefly recalled. In the second part, the PN are used as a formal model to describe the evolution process of critical system in the frame of an ontological approach. The third part focuses on the stochastic Petri Nets (SPN) and their use in dependability assessment. Different formal models of SPN are formally presented (semantics, evolution rules...) and their equivalence with the corresponding class of Markov processes to get an analytical assessment of dependability. Simplification methods are proposed in order to reduce the size of analytical model and to make it more calculable. The introduction of some concepts specific to high level PN allows too the consideration of complex systems. Few applications in the field of the instrumentation and control (l&C) systems, safety integrated systems (SIS) emphasize the benefits of SPN for dependability assessment.

This third edition capitalizes on the success of the previous editions and leverages the important advancements in visualization, data analysis, and sharing capabilities that have emerged in recent years. It serves as an accelerated guide to decision support designs for consultants, service professionals and students. This 'fast track' enables a ramping up of skills in Excel for those who may have never used it to reach a level of mastery that will allow them to integrate Excel with widely available associated applications, make use of intelligent data visualization and analysis techniques, automate activity through basic VBA designs, and develop easy-to-use interfaces for customizing use. The content of this edition has been completely restructured and revised, with updates that correspond with the latest versions of software and references to contemporary add-in development across platforms. It also features best practices in design and analytical consideration, including methodical discussions of problem structuring and evaluation, as well as numerous case examples from practice.

Econometric Theory and Methods International Edition provides a unified treatment of modern econometric theory and practical econometric methods. The geometrical approach to least squares is emphasized, as is the method of moments, which is used to motivate a wide variety of estimators and tests. Simulation methods, including the bootstrap, are introduced early and used extensively. The book deals with a large number of modern topics. In addition to bootstrap and Monte Carlo tests, these include sandwich covariance matrix estimators, artificial regressions, estimating functions and the generalized method of moments, indirect inference, and kernel estimation. Every chapter incorporates numerous exercises, some theoretical, some empirical, and many involving simulation.

Credit Risk Management: Basic Concepts is the first book of a series of three with the objective of providing an overview of all aspects, steps, and issues that should be considered when undertaking credit risk management, including the Basel II Capital Accord, which all major banks must comply with in 2008.
The introduction of the recently suggested Basel II Capital Accord has raised many issues and concerns about how to appropriately manage credit risk. Managing credit risk is one of the next big challenges facing financial institutions. The importance and relevance of efficiently managing credit risk is evident from the huge investments that many financial institutions are making in this area, the booming credit industry in emerging economies (e.g. Brazil, China, India), the many events (courses, seminars, workshops) that are being organized on this topic, and the emergence of new academic journals and magazines in the field (e.g. Journal of Credit Risk, Journal of Risk Model Validation, Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions).
Basic Concepts provides the introduction to the concepts, techniques, and practical examples to guide both young and experienced practitioners and academics in the fascinating, but complex world of risk modelling. Financial risk management, an area of increasing importance with the recent Basel II developments, is discussed in terms of practical business impact and the increasing profitability competition, laying the foundation for books II and III.

This new text book by Urs Birchler and Monika Butler is an introduction to the study of how information affects economic relations. The authors provide a narrative treatment of the more formal concepts of Information Economics, using easy to understand and lively illustrations from film and literature and nutshell examples.
The book first covers the economics of information in a 'man versus nature' context, explaining basic concepts like rational updating or the value of information. Then in a 'man versus man' setting, Birchler and Butler describe strategic issues in the use of information: the make-buy-or-copy decision, the working and failure of markets and the important role of outguessing each other in a macroeconomic context. It closes with a 'man versus himself' perspective, focusing on information management within the individual.

This book also comes with a supporting website (www.alicebob.info), maintained by the authors.

"Structural Models of Wage and Employment Dynamics" contains selected papers from a conference held in honour of Professor Dale T. Mortensen upon the occasion of his 65th birthday. The papers are on some of Professor Dale T. Mortensen's current research topics: The development of equilibrium dynamic models designed to account for wage dispersion and the time series behaviour of job and worker flows. The conference is the sixth in a series. From the beginning there has been a close interplay among economic theorists, econometricians, and applied economists. This book also has a section with theoretical papers as well as sections wtih micro- and macro-econometric papers. These conferences have had significant influence on how we think about public policy in the labour market, and what kinds of data would be needed to answer questions about these policies.
*Contributions to Economic Analysis was established in 1952
*The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information
*The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics

There is much confusion in the economics literature on wage determination and the employment-inflation trade-off. Few model builders pay as much careful attention to the definition and meaning of long-run concepts as did Albert Ando. Expanding on years of painstaking work by Ando, the contributors elaborate on the main issues of economic analysis and policies that concerned him.Some of the issues discussed include long-run properties of dynamic econometric models, demographic issues of modern times, stabilization policies - especially for Japan - and interaction between monetary and real economy issues, as well as life-cycle behavior patterns, and the appropriate role of the Phillips Curve and the determination of prices. Paying close attention to the concepts and properties of models, Long-run Growth and Short Run Stabilization is for those interested in the macroeconomics of the US, Italy, and Japan. Scholars of aggregative dynamic models based on realistic reasoning will benefit from the information imparted, as will policymakers who want to understand the functioning of the modern economy.

Optimal Transport Methods in Economics is the first textbook on the subject written especially for students and researchers in economics. Optimal transport theory is used widely to solve problems in mathematics and some areas of the sciences, but it can also be used to understand a range of problems in applied economics, such as the matching between job seekers and jobs, the determinants of real estate prices, and the formation of matrimonial unions. This is the first text to develop clear applications of optimal transport to economic modeling, statistics, and econometrics. It covers the basic results of the theory as well as their relations to linear programming, network flow problems, convex analysis, and computational geometry. Emphasizing computational methods, it also includes programming examples that provide details on implementation. Applications include discrete choice models, models of differential demand, and quantile-based statistical estimation methods, as well as asset pricing models. Authoritative and accessible, Optimal Transport Methods in Economics also features numerous exercises throughout that help you develop your mathematical agility, deepen your computational skills, and strengthen your economic intuition. * The first introduction to the subject written especially for economists* Includes programming examples* Features numerous exercises throughout* Ideal for students and researchers alike

This book presents covariance matrix estimation and related aspects of random matrix theory. It focuses on the sample covariance matrix estimator and provides a holistic description of its properties under two asymptotic regimes: the traditional one, and the high-dimensional regime that better fits the big data context. It draws attention to the deficiencies of standard statistical tools when used in the high-dimensional setting, and introduces the basic concepts and major results related to spectral statistics and random matrix theory under high-dimensional asymptotics in an understandable and reader-friendly way. The aim of this book is to inspire applied statisticians, econometricians, and machine learning practitioners who analyze high-dimensional data to apply the recent developments in their work.

Financial data are typically characterised by a time-series and cross-sectional dimension. Accordingly, econometric modelling in finance requires appropriate attention to these two - or occasionally more than two - dimensions of the data. Panel data techniques are developed to do exactly this. This book provides an overview of commonly applied panel methods for financial applications, including popular techniques such as Fama-MacBeth estimation, one-way, two-way and interactive fixed effects, clustered standard errors, instrumental variables, and difference-in-differences. Panel Methods for Finance: A Guide to Panel Data Econometrics for Financial Applications by Marno Verbeek offers the reader: Focus on panel methods where the time dimension is relatively small A clear and intuitive exposition, with a focus on implementation and practical relevance Concise presentation, with many references to financial applications and other sources Focus on techniques that are relevant for and popular in empirical work in finance and accounting Critical discussion of key assumptions, robustness, and other issues related to practical implementation

This handbook presents emerging research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of econometric techniques for the financial sector and their applications in economics. By doing so, it offers invaluable tools for predicting and weighing the risks of multiple investments by incorporating data analysis. Throughout the book the authors address a broad range of topics such as predictive analysis, monetary policy, economic growth, systemic risk and investment behavior. This book is a must-read for researchers, scholars and practitioners in the field of economics who are interested in a better understanding of current research on the application of econometric methods to financial sector data.

Financial models are an inescapable feature of modern financial markets. Yet it was over reliance on these models and the failure to test them properly that is now widely recognized as one of the main causes of the financial crisis of 2007-2011. Since this crisis, there has been an increase in the amount of scrutiny and testing applied to such models, and validation has become an essential part of model risk management at financial institutions. The book covers all of the major risk areas that a financial institution is exposed to and uses models for, including market risk, interest rate risk, retail credit risk, wholesale credit risk, compliance risk, and investment management. The book discusses current practices and pitfalls that model risk users need to be aware of and identifies areas where validation can be advanced in the future. This provides the first unified framework for validating risk management models.

Seasonality in economic time series can "obscure" movements of other components in a series that are operationally more important for economic and econometric analyses. In practice, one often prefers to work with seasonally adjusted data to assess the current state of the economy and its future course. This book presents a seasonal adjustment program called CAMPLET, an acronym of its tuning parameters, which consists of a simple adaptive procedure to extract the seasonal and the non-seasonal component from an observed series. Once this process is carried out, there will be no need to revise these components at a later stage when new observations become available. The authors describe the main features of CAMPLET, evaluate the outcomes of CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS in a controlled simulation framework using a variety of data generating processes, and illustrate CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS with three time series: US non-farm payroll employment, operational income of Ahold and real GDP in the Netherlands. Furthermore they show how CAMPLET performs under the COVID-19 crisis, and its attractiveness in dealing with daily data. This book appeals to scholars and students of econometrics and statistics, interested in the application of statistical methods for empirical economic modeling.

In these two volumes, a group of distinguished economists debate the way in which evidence, in particular econometric evidence, can and should be used to relate macroeconomic theories to the real world. Topics covered include the business cycle, monetary policy, economic growth, the impact of new econometric techniques, the IS-LM model, the labour market, new Keynesian macroeconomics, and the use of macroeconomics in official documents.

In these two volumes, a group of distinguished economists debate the way in which evidence, in particular econometric evidence, can and should be used to relate macroeconomic theories to the real world. Topics covered include the business cycle, monetary policy, economic growth, the impact of new econometric techniques, the IS-LM model, the labour market, new Keynesian macroeconomics, and the use of macroeconomics in official documents.

High-frequency trading is an algorithm-based computerized trading practice that allows firms to trade stocks in milliseconds. Over the last fifteen years, the use of statistical and econometric methods for analyzing high-frequency financial data has grown exponentially. This growth has been driven by the increasing availability of such data, the technological advancements that make high-frequency trading strategies possible, and the need of practitioners to analyze these data. This comprehensive book introduces readers to these emerging methods and tools of analysis.

Yacine Ait-Sahalia and Jean Jacod cover the mathematical foundations of stochastic processes, describe the primary characteristics of high-frequency financial data, and present the asymptotic concepts that their analysis relies on. Ait-Sahalia and Jacod also deal with estimation of the volatility portion of the model, including methods that are robust to market microstructure noise, and address estimation and testing questions involving the jump part of the model. As they demonstrate, the practical importance and relevance of jumps in financial data are universally recognized, but only recently have econometric methods become available to rigorously analyze jump processes.

Ait-Sahalia and Jacod approach high-frequency econometrics with a distinct focus on the financial side of matters while maintaining technical rigor, which makes this book invaluable to researchers and practitioners alike."

This book explores the novel uses and potentials of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) under big data. These areas are of widespread interest to researchers and practitioners alike. Considering the vast literature on DEA, one could say that DEA has been and continues to be, a widely used technique both in performance and productivity measurement, having covered a plethora of challenges and debates within the modelling framework.

Now in its fourth edition, this comprehensive introduction of fundamental panel data methodologies provides insights on what is most essential in panel literature. A capstone to the forty-year career of a pioneer of panel data analysis, this new edition's primary contribution will be the coverage of advancements in panel data analysis, a statistical method widely used to analyze two or higher-dimensional panel data. The topics discussed in early editions have been reorganized and streamlined to comprehensively introduce panel econometric methodologies useful for identifying causal relationships among variables, supported by interdisciplinary examples and case studies. This book, to be featured in Cambridge's Econometric Society Monographs series, has been the leader in the field since the first edition. It is essential reading for researchers, practitioners and graduate students interested in the analysis of microeconomic behavior.

This book analyses the dynamics of Indian stock market with a special emphasis during the period following emergence of Covid-19. Coming from the instability in stock market following Covid-19, it delves deeper into the dynamics and unfolds the causal relationship between various economic fundamentals and the stock prices. Observing short-term herding in the stock market following Covid-19, the book's finding suggests that investors in the Indian stock market made investment choices irrationally during Covid-19 crisis periods. It also showcases how the stock market became inefficient following the emergence of pandemic and did not follow the fundamentals. Interestingly, the findings suggest no relationship between stock returns and real economic activities in India. The format of presentation makes the book well suited not only for students, academics, policy makers and investors in the stock markets, but also people engaged or interested in business and finance. The book would thus be of interest to both specialists and the laity. Analysis contained in this book will help different readership groups in different ways. Researchers from economics and finance disciplines will be able to learn about frontiers in the theoretical paradigms discussed in the book; advanced econometric techniques applied in the book will also be useful for their own research. The macroeconomic insights, and insights from behavioural economics, can expand the knowledge of corporate sector, useful in making real life decisions. Finally, it will help policy makers, like SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India), to formulate appropriate regulatory policies so as to minimize possibility of speculative bubbles as experienced during the pandemic period in the Indian stock markets.

This textbook provides a self-contained presentation of the theory and models of time series analysis. Putting an emphasis on weakly stationary processes and linear dynamic models, it describes the basic concepts, ideas, methods and results in a mathematically well-founded form and includes numerous examples and exercises. The first part presents the theory of weakly stationary processes in time and frequency domain, including prediction and filtering. The second part deals with multivariate AR, ARMA and state space models, which are the most important model classes for stationary processes, and addresses the structure of AR, ARMA and state space systems, Yule-Walker equations, factorization of rational spectral densities and Kalman filtering. Finally, there is a discussion of Granger causality, linear dynamic factor models and (G)ARCH models. The book provides a solid basis for advanced mathematics students and researchers in fields such as data-driven modeling, forecasting and filtering, which are important in statistics, control engineering, financial mathematics, econometrics and signal processing, among other subjects.