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Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics - A Theoretical and Statistical Approach to Agricultural Markets (Paperback)
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Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics - A Theoretical and Statistical Approach to Agricultural Markets (Paperback)
Series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 426
Expected to ship within 10 - 15 working days
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1. 1 Introduction In economics, one often observes time series that
exhibit different patterns of qualitative behavior, both regular
and irregular, symmetric and asymmetric. There exist two different
perspectives to explain this kind of behavior within the framework
of a dynamical model. The traditional belief is that the time
evolution of the series can be explained by a linear dynamic model
that is exogenously disturbed by a stochastic process. In that
case, the observed irregular behavior is explained by the influence
of external random shocks which do not necessarily have an economic
reason. A more recent theory has evolved in economics that
attributes the patterns of change in economic time series to an
underlying nonlinear structure, which means that fluctua tions can
as well be caused endogenously by the influence of market forces,
preference relations, or technological progress. One of the main
reasons why nonlinear dynamic models are so interesting to
economists is that they are able to produce a great variety of
possible dynamic outcomes - from regular predictable behavior to
the most complex irregular behavior - rich enough to meet the
economists' objectives of modeling. The traditional linear models
can only capture a limited number of possi ble dynamic phenomena,
which are basically convergence to an equilibrium point, steady
oscillations, and unbounded divergence. In any case, for a lin ear
system one can write down exactly the solutions to a set of
differential or difference equations and classify them."
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