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Economies in Transition - A System of Models and Forecasts for Germany and Poland (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1993)
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Economies in Transition - A System of Models and Forecasts for Germany and Poland (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1993)
Series: Contributions to Economics
Expected to ship within 10 - 15 working days
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It has been quite a challenge for econometricians to model
economies in transition. There is no textbook at hand to master
that task. Economic theory cannot be applied without adaptations to
the characteristic change of a whole economic system. Regression
analysis, taking into account past economic development only, is of
limited use for the econometrician. Having econometric models at
hand would be very helpful for an active economic policy to guide
the transition process. Various scenarios representing strategies
could be simulated in their consequences to the economy. The best
alternative in respect to the government's objectives could be
chosen. This very situation has born the idea of co-operation
between L6dz and Frankfurt in 1990. There are problems of this kind
in Poland and in Germany. The German situation is somewhat better
than that of Poland as a relatively small centrally planned economy
is being united with a substantial social market economy taking
over a lot of the burden of the former mismanagement. Thus, it
might be possible to share the experience in modelling the united
Germany and preparing forecasts with the Polish model builders. In
addition, it would be prOfitable for both model establishing teams
to link their models in order to improve the forecasting potential.
Moreover, the Polish partner has a broad national and international
experience in econometric model building which makes co-operation
smooth and fruitful. His experience in modelling countries with a
centrally planned economy would also help to master the transition
problems.
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