This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a
total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all
experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an
abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial
exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for
rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected,
these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior
satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality
are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,
underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous
variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some
aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round"
number, dispersion, etc., are studied.
General
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