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Empirical Vector Autoregressive Modeling (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1994)
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Empirical Vector Autoregressive Modeling (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1994)
Series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 407
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Total price: R2,839
Discovery Miles: 28 390
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1. 1 Integrating results The empirical study of macroeconomic time
series is interesting. It is also difficult and not immediately
rewarding. Many statistical and economic issues are involved. The
main problems is that these issues are so interrelated that it does
not seem sensible to address them one at a time. As soon as one
sets about the making of a model of macroeconomic time series one
has to choose which problems one will try to tackle oneself and
which problems one will leave unresolved or to be solved by others.
From a theoretic point of view it can be fruitful to concentrate
oneself on only one problem. If one follows this strategy in
empirical application one runs a serious risk of making a seemingly
interesting model, that is just a corollary of some important
mistake in the handling of other problems. Two well known examples
of statistical artifacts are the finding of Kuznets "pseudo-waves"
of about 20 years in economic activity (Sargent (1979, p. 248)) and
the "spurious regression" of macroeconomic time series described in
Granger and Newbold (1986, 6. 4). The easiest way to get away with
possible mistakes is to admit they may be there in the first place,
but that time constraints and unfamiliarity with the solution do
not allow the researcher to do something about them. This can be a
viable argument."
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