In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, labour markets, and economic growth.

Spatial econometrics deals with spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, critical aspects of the data used by regional scientists. These characteristics may cause standard econometric techniques to become inappropriate. In this book, I combine several recent research results to construct a comprehensive approach to the incorporation of spatial effects in econometrics. My primary focus is to demonstrate how these spatial effects can be considered as special cases of general frameworks in standard econometrics, and to outline how they necessitate a separate set of methods and techniques, encompassed within the field of spatial econometrics. My viewpoint differs from that taken in the discussion of spatial autocorrelation in spatial statistics - e.g., most recently by Cliff and Ord (1981) and Upton and Fingleton (1985) - in that I am mostly concerned with the relevance of spatial effects on model specification, estimation and other inference, in what I caIl a model-driven approach, as opposed to a data-driven approach in spatial statistics. I attempt to combine a rigorous econometric perspective with a comprehensive treatment of methodological issues in spatial analysis.

This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new developments and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, either in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, or the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, and methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas, as well as their developments informing the mainstream. In the early 21st century, climate change and the forecasting of health expenditures and population are topics of pressing importance.

Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for empirical work in macroeconomics, finance, and related fields. This book not only reviews the many alternative structural VAR approaches discussed in the literature, but also highlights their pros and cons in practice. It provides guidance to empirical researchers as to the most appropriate modeling choices, methods of estimating, and evaluating structural VAR models. The book traces the evolution of the structural VAR methodology and contrasts it with other common methodologies, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is intended as a bridge between the often quite technical econometric literature on structural VAR modeling and the needs of empirical researchers. The focus is not on providing the most rigorous theoretical arguments, but on enhancing the reader's understanding of the methods in question and their assumptions. Empirical examples are provided for illustration.

This Handbook provides an authoritative overview of current research in the field of cost-benefit analysis and is designed as a starting point for those interested in undertaking advanced research. The Handbook contains major contributions to the development of the field, focussing on standard microeconomic policy evaluations, the relatively neglected area of macroeconomic policy and its integration into a formal CBA framework, and dynamic considerations in CBA Presenting insights from many influential thinkers, and edited by a leading academic in the field, this comprehensive work will prove an invaluable reference tool for economists, researchers and scholars.

This is the second of two volumes containing papers and commentaries presented at the Eleventh World Congress of the Econometric Society, held in Montreal, Canada in August 2015. These papers provide state-of-the-art guides to the most important recent research in economics. The book includes surveys and interpretations of key developments in economics and econometrics, and discussion of future directions for a wide variety of topics, covering both theory and application. These volumes provide a unique, accessible survey of progress on the discipline, written by leading specialists in their fields. The second volume addresses topics such as big data, macroeconomics, financial markets, and partially identified models.

Financial econometrics is an interdisciplinary subject that uses statistical methods and economic theory to address a variety of quantitative problems in finance. This compact, master's-level textbook focuses on methodology and includes real financial data illustrations throughout. The mathematical level is purposely kept moderate, allowing the power of the quantitative methods to be understood without too much technical detail. Wherever possible, the authors indicate where to find the relevant R codes to implement the various methods. This book grew out of a course at Princeton University which is one of the world's flagship programs in computational finance and financial engineering. It will therefore be useful for those with an economics and finance background who are looking to sharpen their quantitative skills, and also for those with strong quantitative skills who want to learn how to apply them to finance.

This Fourth Edition updates the "Solutions Manual for Econometrics" to match the Sixth Edition of the Econometrics textbook. It adds problems and solutions using latest software versions of Stata and EViews. Special features include empirical examples replicated using EViews, Stata as well as SAS. The book offers rigorous proofs and treatment of difficult econometrics concepts in a simple and clear way, and provides the reader with both applied and theoretical econometrics problems along with their solutions. These should prove useful to students and instructors using this book.

Analyze key indicators more accurately to make smarter market moves The Economic Indicator Handbook helps investors more easily evaluate economic trends, to better inform investment decision making and other key strategic financial planning. Written by a Bloomberg Senior Economist, this book presents a visual distillation of the indicators every investor should follow, with clear explanation of how they're measured, what they mean, and how that should inform investment thinking. The focus on graphics, professional application, Bloomberg terminal functionality, and practicality makes this guide a quick, actionable read that could immediately start improving investment outcomes. Coverage includes gross domestic product, employment data, industrial production, new residential construction, consumer confidence, retail and food service sales, and commodities, plus guidance on the secret indicators few economists know or care about. Past performance can predict future results if you know how to read the indicators. Modern investing requires a careful understanding of the macroeconomic forces that lift and topple markets on a regular basis, and how they shift to move entire economies. This book is a visual guide to recognizing these forces and tracking their behavior, helping investors identify entry and exit points that maximize profit and minimize loss. * Quickly evaluate economic trends * Make more informed investment decisions * Understand the most essential indicators * Translate predictions into profitable actions Savvy market participants know how critical certain indicators are to the formulation of a profitable, effective market strategy. A daily indicator check can inform day-to-day investing, and long-term tracking can result in a stronger, more robust portfolio. For the investor who knows that better information leads to better outcomes, The Economic Indicator Handbook is an exceptionally useful resource.

Credit Risk Management: Basic Concepts is the first book of a series of three with the objective of providing an overview of all aspects, steps, and issues that should be considered when undertaking credit risk management, including the Basel II Capital Accord, which all major banks must comply with in 2008.
The introduction of the recently suggested Basel II Capital Accord has raised many issues and concerns about how to appropriately manage credit risk. Managing credit risk is one of the next big challenges facing financial institutions. The importance and relevance of efficiently managing credit risk is evident from the huge investments that many financial institutions are making in this area, the booming credit industry in emerging economies (e.g. Brazil, China, India), the many events (courses, seminars, workshops) that are being organized on this topic, and the emergence of new academic journals and magazines in the field (e.g. Journal of Credit Risk, Journal of Risk Model Validation, Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions).
Basic Concepts provides the introduction to the concepts, techniques, and practical examples to guide both young and experienced practitioners and academics in the fascinating, but complex world of risk modelling. Financial risk management, an area of increasing importance with the recent Basel II developments, is discussed in terms of practical business impact and the increasing profitability competition, laying the foundation for books II and III.

Econometric Theory and Methods International Edition provides a unified treatment of modern econometric theory and practical econometric methods. The geometrical approach to least squares is emphasized, as is the method of moments, which is used to motivate a wide variety of estimators and tests. Simulation methods, including the bootstrap, are introduced early and used extensively. The book deals with a large number of modern topics. In addition to bootstrap and Monte Carlo tests, these include sandwich covariance matrix estimators, artificial regressions, estimating functions and the generalized method of moments, indirect inference, and kernel estimation. Every chapter incorporates numerous exercises, some theoretical, some empirical, and many involving simulation.

Petri Nets were defined for the study of discrete events systems and later extended for many purposes including dependability assessment. In our knowledge, no book deals specifically with the use of different type of PN to dependability. We propose in addition to bring a focus on the adequacy of Petri net types to the study of various problems related to dependability such as risk analysis and probabilistic assessment. In the first part, the basic models of PN and some useful extensions are briefly recalled. In the second part, the PN are used as a formal model to describe the evolution process of critical system in the frame of an ontological approach. The third part focuses on the stochastic Petri Nets (SPN) and their use in dependability assessment. Different formal models of SPN are formally presented (semantics, evolution rules...) and their equivalence with the corresponding class of Markov processes to get an analytical assessment of dependability. Simplification methods are proposed in order to reduce the size of analytical model and to make it more calculable. The introduction of some concepts specific to high level PN allows too the consideration of complex systems. Few applications in the field of the instrumentation and control (l&C) systems, safety integrated systems (SIS) emphasize the benefits of SPN for dependability assessment.

Pioneered by American economist Paul Samuelson, revealed preference theory is based on the idea that the preferences of consumers are revealed in their purchasing behavior. Researchers in this field have developed complex and sophisticated mathematical models to capture the preferences that are 'revealed' through consumer choice behavior. This study of consumer demand and behavior is closely tied up with econometrics (especially nonparametric econometrics), where testing the validity of different theoretical models is an important aspect of research. The theory of revealed preference has a very long and distinguished tradition in economics, but there was no systematic presentation of the theory until now. This book deals with basic questions in economic theory, such as the relation between theory and data, and studies the situations in which empirical observations are consistent or inconsistent with some of the best known theories in economics.

This valuable text provides a comprehensive introduction to VAR modelling and how it can be applied. In particular, the author focuses on the properties of the Cointegrated VAR model and its implications for macroeconomic inference when data are non-stationary. The text provides a number of insights into the links between statistical econometric modelling and economic theory and gives a thorough treatment of identification of the long-run and short-run structure as well as of the common stochastic trends and the impulse response functions, providing in each case illustrations of applicability. This book presents the main ingredients of the Copenhagen School of Time-Series Econometrics in a transparent and coherent framework. The distinguishing feature of this school is that econometric theory and applications have been developed in close cooperation. The guiding principle is that good econometric work should take econometrics, institutions, and economics seriously. The author uses a single data set throughout most of the book to guide the reader through the econometric theory while also revealing the full implications for the underlying economic model. To test ensure full understanding the book concludes with the introduction of two new data sets to combine readers understanding of econometric theory and economic models, with economic reality.

This new text book by Urs Birchler and Monika Butler is an introduction to the study of how information affects economic relations. The authors provide a narrative treatment of the more formal concepts of Information Economics, using easy to understand and lively illustrations from film and literature and nutshell examples.
The book first covers the economics of information in a 'man versus nature' context, explaining basic concepts like rational updating or the value of information. Then in a 'man versus man' setting, Birchler and Butler describe strategic issues in the use of information: the make-buy-or-copy decision, the working and failure of markets and the important role of outguessing each other in a macroeconomic context. It closes with a 'man versus himself' perspective, focusing on information management within the individual.

This book also comes with a supporting website (www.alicebob.info), maintained by the authors.

Focusing on deterministic models in discrete time, this concise yet rigorous textbook provides a clear and systematic introduction to the theory and application of dynamic economic models. It guides students through the most popular model structures and solution concepts, from the simplest dynamic economic models through to complex problems of optimal policy design in dynamic general equilibrium frameworks. Chapters feature theorems and practical hints, and seventy-five worked examples highlight the various methods and results that can be applied in dynamic economic models. Notation and formulation is uniform throughout, so students can easily discern the similarities and differences between various model classes. Chapters include more than sixty exercises for students to self-test their analytical skills, and password-protected solutions are available for instructors on the companion website. Assuming no prior knowledge of dynamic economic analysis or dynamic optimization, this textbook is ideal for advanced students in economics.

A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata provides practitioners in academia and industry with a step-by-step guide on how to conduct efficiency analysis using the stochastic frontier approach. The authors explain in detail how to estimate production, cost, and profit efficiency and introduce the basic theory of each model in an accessible way, using empirical examples that demonstrate the interpretation and application of models. This book also provides computer code, allowing users to apply the models in their own work, and incorporates the most recent stochastic frontier models developed in academic literature. Such recent developments include models of heteroscedasticity and exogenous determinants of inefficiency, scaling models, panel models with time-varying inefficiency, growth models, and panel models that separate firm effects and persistent and transient inefficiency. Immensely helpful to applied researchers, this book bridges the chasm between theory and practice, expanding the range of applications in which production frontier analysis may be implemented.

There is much confusion in the economics literature on wage determination and the employment-inflation trade-off. Few model builders pay as much careful attention to the definition and meaning of long-run concepts as did Albert Ando. Expanding on years of painstaking work by Ando, the contributors elaborate on the main issues of economic analysis and policies that concerned him.Some of the issues discussed include long-run properties of dynamic econometric models, demographic issues of modern times, stabilization policies - especially for Japan - and interaction between monetary and real economy issues, as well as life-cycle behavior patterns, and the appropriate role of the Phillips Curve and the determination of prices. Paying close attention to the concepts and properties of models, Long-run Growth and Short Run Stabilization is for those interested in the macroeconomics of the US, Italy, and Japan. Scholars of aggregative dynamic models based on realistic reasoning will benefit from the information imparted, as will policymakers who want to understand the functioning of the modern economy.

A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata provides practitioners in academia and industry with a step-by-step guide on how to conduct efficiency analysis using the stochastic frontier approach. The authors explain in detail how to estimate production, cost, and profit efficiency and introduce the basic theory of each model in an accessible way, using empirical examples that demonstrate the interpretation and application of models. This book also provides computer code, allowing users to apply the models in their own work, and incorporates the most recent stochastic frontier models developed in academic literature. Such recent developments include models of heteroscedasticity and exogenous determinants of inefficiency, scaling models, panel models with time-varying inefficiency, growth models, and panel models that separate firm effects and persistent and transient inefficiency. Immensely helpful to applied researchers, this book bridges the chasm between theory and practice, expanding the range of applications in which production frontier analysis may be implemented.

The productivity of a business exerts an important influence on its financial performance. A similar influence exists for industries and economies: those with superior productivity performance thrive at the expense of others. Productivity performance helps explain the growth and demise of businesses and the relative prosperity of nations. Productivity Accounting: The Economics of Business Performance offers an in-depth analysis of variation in business performance, providing the reader with an analytical framework within which to account for this variation and its causes and consequences. The primary focus is the individual business, and the principal consequence of business productivity performance is business financial performance. Alternative measures of financial performance are considered, including profit, profitability, cost, unit cost, and return on assets. Combining analytical rigor with empirical illustrations, the analysis draws on wide-ranging literatures, both historical and current, from business and economics, and explains how businesses create value and distribute it.

Born of a belief that economic insights should not require much mathematical sophistication, this book proposes novel and parsimonious methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling, without complex mathematics. Economics has made great strides over the past several decades in modeling agents' decisions when they are incompletely informed, but many economists believe that there are aspects of these models that are less than satisfactory. Among the concerns are that ignorance is not captured well in most models, that agents' presumed cognitive ability is implausible, and that derived optimal behavior is sometimes driven by the fine details of the model rather than the underlying economics. Compte and Postlewaite lay out a tractable way to address these concerns, and to incorporate plausible limitations on agents' sophistication. A central aspect of the proposed methodology is to restrict the strategies assumed available to agents.

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

The recent financial crisis has heightened the need for appropriate methodologies for managing and monitoring complex risks in financial markets. The measurement, management, and regulation of risks in portfolios composed of credits, credit derivatives, or life insurance contracts is difficult because of the nonlinearities of risk models, dependencies between individual risks, and the several thousands of contracts in large portfolios. The granularity principle was introduced in the Basel regulations for credit risk to solve these difficulties in computing capital reserves. In this book, authors Patrick Gagliardini and Christian Gourieroux provide the first comprehensive overview of the granularity theory and illustrate its usefulness for a variety of problems related to risk analysis, statistical estimation, and derivative pricing in finance and insurance. They show how the granularity principle leads to analytical formulas for risk analysis that are simple to implement and accurate even when the portfolio size is large."

This new and exciting book offers a fresh approach to quantitative finance and utilises novel features, including stereoscopic images which permit 3D visualisation of complex subjects without the need for additional tools. Offering an integrated approach to the subject, A First Course in Quantitative Finance introduces students to the architecture of complete financial markets before exploring the concepts and models of modern portfolio theory, derivative pricing and fixed income products in both complete and incomplete market settings. Subjects are organised throughout in a way that encourages a gradual and parallel learning process of both the economic concepts and their mathematical descriptions, framed by additional perspectives from classical utility theory, financial economics and behavioural finance. Suitable for postgraduate students studying courses in quantitative finance, financial engineering and financial econometrics as part of an economics, finance, econometric or mathematics program, this book contains all necessary theoretical and mathematical concepts and numerical methods, as well as the necessary programming code for porting algorithms onto a computer.

This book presents covariance matrix estimation and related aspects of random matrix theory. It focuses on the sample covariance matrix estimator and provides a holistic description of its properties under two asymptotic regimes: the traditional one, and the high-dimensional regime that better fits the big data context. It draws attention to the deficiencies of standard statistical tools when used in the high-dimensional setting, and introduces the basic concepts and major results related to spectral statistics and random matrix theory under high-dimensional asymptotics in an understandable and reader-friendly way. The aim of this book is to inspire applied statisticians, econometricians, and machine learning practitioners who analyze high-dimensional data to apply the recent developments in their work.