This book examines discrete dynamical systems with memory-nonlinear systems that exist extensively in biological organisms and financial and economic organizations, and time-delay systems that can be discretized into the memorized, discrete dynamical systems. It book further discusses stability and bifurcations of time-delay dynamical systems that can be investigated through memorized dynamical systems as well as bifurcations of memorized nonlinear dynamical systems, discretization methods of time-delay systems, and periodic motions to chaos in nonlinear time-delay systems. The book helps readers find analytical solutions of MDS, change traditional perturbation analysis in time-delay systems, detect motion complexity and singularity in MDS; and determine stability, bifurcation, and chaos in any time-delay system.

This book explores the role of national fiscal policies in a selected group of Euro-area countries under the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In particular, the authors characterize the response of output to fiscal consolidations and expansions in the small Euro-area open economies affected by high public and private debt. It is shown that the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal shocks is strongly related to debt levels. The Euro-area countries included in the investigation are Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal, over the sample period 1999-2016, i.e., the EMU period. The main econometric tools used in this research are structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models, including panel VAR models. The available literature relating to the subject is also fully reviewed. A further closely investigated topic is the potential spillover effects of German fiscal policies on the selected small Euro-area economies. Moreover, in the perspective of the evolution of the Euro Area towards a full Monetary and Fiscal Union, the authors study the effects of area-wide government spending shocks on aggregate output and other macroeconomic variables during the EMU period. The closing chapter of the book considers evidence on the consequences of austerity policies for European labour markets during recent years.

This book presents an empirical investigation into the relationship between companies' short-term response to capital and labor market frictions and performance. Two different kinds of performance measures are considered, namely innovation performance and firm performance. The author focuses on two major topics: first, on the relation between innovation performance and the use of trade credit. Second, on the relation between firm performance and the use of temporary employment. The use of in-depth firm-level data and state-of-the-art microeconometric methods provide the scientific rigor to this important investigation to answer the questions currently being confronted by many companies in different economies.

Essentials of Applied Econometrics prepares students for a world in which more data surround us every day and in which econometric tools are put to diverse uses. Written for students in economics and for professionals interested in continuing an education in econometrics, this succinct text not only teaches best practices and state-of-the-art techniques, but uses vivid examples and data obtained from a variety of real world sources. The book's emphasis on application uniquely prepares the reader for today's econometric work, which can include analyzing causal relationships or correlations in big data to obtain useful insights.

This book is an extension of the author's first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, and 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for inexperienced learners as well as professionals, while maintaining a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes' theorem and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem-as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as the basis for the first book, and includes fifty 2-, 3-, and 4-event BBN of numerous variants.

This book grows from a conference on the state of the art and recent advances in Efficiency and Productivity. Papers were commissioned from leading researchers in the field, and include eight explorations into the analytical foundations of efficiency and productivity analysis. Chapters on modeling advances include reverse directional distance function, a new method for estimating technological production possibilities, a new distance function called a loss distance function, an analysis of productivity and price recovery indices, the relation of technical efficiency measures to productivity measures, the implications for benchmarking and target setting of imposing weight restrictions on DEA models, weight restrictions in a regulatory setting, and the Principle of Least Action. Chapters on empirical applications include a study of innovative firms that use innovation inputs to produce innovation outputs, a study of the impact of potential "coopetition" or cooperation among competitors on the financial performance of European automobile plants, using SFA to estimate the eco-efficiency of dairy farms in Spain, a DEA bankruptcy prediction model, a combined stochastic cost frontier analysis model/mixture hazard model, the evolution of energy intensity in nine Spanish manufacturing industries, and the productivity of US farmers as they age.

This new and exciting book offers a fresh approach to quantitative finance and utilises novel features, including stereoscopic images which permit 3D visualisation of complex subjects without the need for additional tools. Offering an integrated approach to the subject, A First Course in Quantitative Finance introduces students to the architecture of complete financial markets before exploring the concepts and models of modern portfolio theory, derivative pricing and fixed income products in both complete and incomplete market settings. Subjects are organised throughout in a way that encourages a gradual and parallel learning process of both the economic concepts and their mathematical descriptions, framed by additional perspectives from classical utility theory, financial economics and behavioural finance. Suitable for postgraduate students studying courses in quantitative finance, financial engineering and financial econometrics as part of an economics, finance, econometric or mathematics program, this book contains all necessary theoretical and mathematical concepts and numerical methods, as well as the necessary programming code for porting algorithms onto a computer.

This volume examines the properties of statistics on household behavior in Japan. This work is an essential guide for all researchers who are interested in household decision making and the Japanese economy. Many household surveys are conducted in Japan reflecting the fact that household activities have various aspects such as income earning, timing and pattern choice of expenditure and consumption, asset portfolio choice, labor supply decision, time use, and health status. Moreover, the contents of each survey overlap in a complex manner to present a serious obstacle for potential survey users. In this book, the basic information from each survey such as sampling methods, survey techniques, and available variables is provided and then compared to check the consistency across the same variables reported in different surveys. Exploring strengths and weaknesses of each survey, this book is highly recommended to readers who seek comprehensive, up-to-date information about Japanese surveys and want to use appropriate data for their analysis.

Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for empirical work in macroeconomics, finance, and related fields. This book not only reviews the many alternative structural VAR approaches discussed in the literature, but also highlights their pros and cons in practice. It provides guidance to empirical researchers as to the most appropriate modeling choices, methods of estimating, and evaluating structural VAR models. The book traces the evolution of the structural VAR methodology and contrasts it with other common methodologies, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is intended as a bridge between the often quite technical econometric literature on structural VAR modeling and the needs of empirical researchers. The focus is not on providing the most rigorous theoretical arguments, but on enhancing the reader's understanding of the methods in question and their assumptions. Empirical examples are provided for illustration.

This book presents eleven classic papers by the late Professor Suzanne Scotchmer with introductions by leading economists and legal scholars. This book introduces Scotchmer's life and work; analyses her pioneering contributions to the economics of patents and innovation incentives, with a special focus on the modern theory of cumulative innovation; and describes her pioneering work on law and economics, evolutionary game theory, and general equilibrium/club theory. This book also provides a self-contained introduction to students who want to learn more about the various fields that Professor Scotchmer worked in, with a particular focus on patent incentives and cumulative innovation.

This is the first of two volumes containing papers and commentaries presented at the Eleventh World Congress of the Econometric Society, held in Montreal, Canada in August 2015. These papers provide state-of-the-art guides to the most important recent research in economics. The book includes surveys and interpretations of key developments in economics and econometrics, and discussion of future directions for a wide variety of topics, covering both theory and application. These volumes provide a unique, accessible survey of progress on the discipline, written by leading specialists in their fields. The first volume includes theoretical and applied papers addressing topics such as dynamic mechanism design, agency problems, and networks.

In Mathematical Finance, the authors consider a mathematical model for the pricing of emissions permits. The model has particular applicability to the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) but could also be used to consider the modeling of other cap-and-trade schemes. As a response to the risk of Climate Change, carbon markets are currently being implemented in regions worldwide and already represent more than $30 billion. However, scientific, and particularly mathematical, studies of these carbon markets are needed in order to expose their advantages and shortcomings, as well as allow their most efficient implementation. This Brief reviews mathematical properties such as the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the pricing problem, stability of solutions and their behavior. These fit into the theory of fully coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) with irregular coefficients. The authors present a numerical algorithm to compute the solution to these non-standard FBSDEs. They also carry out a case study of the UK energy market. This involves estimating the parameters to be used in the model using historical data and then solving a pricing problem using the aforementioned numerical algorithm. The Brief is of interest to researchers in stochastic processes and their applications, and environmental and energy economics. Most sections are also accessible to practitioners in the energy sector and climate change policy-makers.

This book seeks new perspectives on the growing inequalities that our societies face, putting forward Structured Additive Distributional Regression as a means of statistical analysis that circumvents the common problem of analytical reduction to simple point estimators. This new approach allows the observed discrepancy between the individuals' realities and the abstract representation of those realities to be explicitly taken into consideration using the arithmetic mean alone. In turn, the method is applied to the question of economic inequality in Germany.

Maths for Economics provides a comprehensive and solid foundation in core mathematical principles and methods used in economics, beginning with revisiting basic skills in arithmetic, algebra, equation solving, and slowly building to more advanced topics. Suitable for those with a range of prior school-level expereince or more generally for those who feel they need to go back to the very basics, students can learn with confidence. Drawing on his extensive experience of teaching in the area, the author appreciates that maths can be a daunting topic for many. As such the text is fully supports the reader by using a combination of engaging learning features including summary sections, examples to show how theory is used in practice and progress exercises, which encourage independent study. Each chapter ends with a conclusion check list to allow students to reflect on topics as they master them. Digital formats and resources The fifth edition is available for students and institutions to purchase in a variety of formats, and is supported by online resources. The e-book offers a mobile experience and convenient access along with functionality tools, navigation features, and links that offer extra learning support: www.oxfordtextbooks.co.uk/ebooks Online resources supporting the book include, For Students: - Ask the author forum - Excel tutorial - Maple tutorial - Further exercises - Answers to further questions - Expanded solutions to progress exercises For Lecturers: - Test exercises - Graphs from the book - Answers to test exercises

This book examines conventional time series in the context of stationary data prior to a discussion of cointegration, with a focus on multivariate models. The authors provide a detailed and extensive study of impulse responses and forecasting in the stationary and non-stationary context, considering small sample correction, volatility and the impact of different orders of integration. Models with expectations are considered along with alternate methods such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the Kalman Filter and Structural Time Series, all in relation to cointegration. Using single equations methods to develop topics, and as examples of the notion of cointegration, Burke, Hunter, and Canepa provide direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists.

Methods and perspectives to model and measure productivity and efficiency have made a number of important advances in the last decade. Using the standard and innovative formulations of the theory and practice of efficiency and productivity measurement, Robin C. Sickles and Valentin Zelenyuk provide a comprehensive approach to productivity and efficiency analysis, covering its theoretical underpinnings and its empirical implementation, paying particular attention to the implications of neoclassical economic theory. A distinct feature of the book is that it presents a wide array of theoretical and empirical methods utilized by researchers and practitioners who study productivity issues. An accompanying website includes methods, programming codes that can be used with widely available software like MATLAB (R) and R, and test data for many of the productivity and efficiency estimators discussed in the book. It will be valuable to upper-level undergraduates, graduate students, and professionals.

Nonlinear models have been used extensively in the areas of economics and finance. Recent literature on the topic has shown that a large number of series exhibit nonlinear dynamics as opposed to the alternative--linear dynamics. Incorporating these concepts involves deriving and estimating nonlinear time series models, and these have typically taken the form of Threshold Autoregression (TAR) models, Exponential Smooth Transition (ESTAR) models, and Markov Switching (MS) models, among several others. This edited volume provides a timely overview of nonlinear estimation techniques, offering new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. It features cutting-edge research from leading academics in economics, finance, and business management, and will focus on such topics as Zero-Information-Limit-Conditions, using Markov Switching Models to analyze economics series, and how best to distinguish between competing nonlinear models. Principles and techniques in this book will appeal to econometricians, finance professors teaching quantitative finance, researchers, and graduate students interested in learning how to apply advances in nonlinear time series modeling to solve complex problems in economics and finance.

This book empirically analyzes the vulnerability of poor households in rural areas of Mexico and the effects of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program called PROGRESA-Oportunidades by adopting the two most recent sets of rural household panel data for 2003 2007. The period covered by this book coincides with the unexpected reversal of the poverty trend observed in 2006 to the present which raised a question of vulnerability to poverty of Mexican households that had emerged from poverty in the early 2000s under a stable economic condition. The author applies different methodologies in defining vulnerable households in each chapter, enabling discussion of the multiple dimensions of vulnerability from varying perspectives, to identify the determinants of rural household vulnerability to poverty and the CCT effects. Empirical studies reported in this book confirmed a certain role played by PROGRESA-Oportunidades in mitigating vulnerability; however, the effect was rather partial and could not fully achieve poverty reduction during the surveyed period. By combining the existent discussions and empirical results of the CCT impacts, the author concludes that a possible limitation of PROGRESA-Oportunidades may be the excessive focus on the labor supply side, thus complementary policies must enhance the demand side, especially in creating decent employment opportunities for youth.

This book focuses on economic inequality, its measurement, and its relationship with economic growth and development. The current literature uses multiple points of view, ranging from ethical, legal, philosophical, to political and economic, to understand the nature of (in)equality. Presenting the problem objectively, this book shows how to measure the phenomenon statistically along with an international comparison of the level of income inequality and economic growth and of their complex relationship. The book also analyzes three decades of theoretical and empirical evidence to understand this phenomenon and discusses a number of political measures to reduce economic disparities while stimulating economic growth.

This book provides advanced theoretical and applied tools for the implementation of modern micro-econometric techniques in evidence-based program evaluation for the social sciences. The author presents a comprehensive toolbox for designing rigorous and effective ex-post program evaluation using the statistical software package Stata. For each method, a statistical presentation is developed, followed by a practical estimation of the treatment effects. By using both real and simulated data, readers will become familiar with evaluation techniques, such as regression-adjustment, matching, difference-in-differences, instrumental-variables and regression-discontinuity-design and are given practical guidelines for selecting and applying suitable methods for specific policy contexts.

This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.

A number of clubs in professional sports leagues exhibit winning streaks over a number of consecutive seasons that do not conform to the standard economic model of a professional sports league developed by El Hodiri and Quirk (1994) and Fort and Quirk (1995). These clubs appear to display what we term "unsustainable runs", defined as a period of two to four seasons where the club acquires expensive talent and attempts to win a league championship despite not having the market size to sustain such a competitive position in the long run. The standard model predicts that clubs that locate in large economic markets will tend to acquire more talent, achieve more success on the field and at the box office than clubs that are located in small markets. This book builds a model that can allow unsustainable runs yet retains most of the features of the standard model. The model is then subjected to empirical verification. The new model we develop in the book has as its central feature the possibility of generating two equilibria for a club. In the empirical sections of the book, we use time-series analysis to attempt to test for the presence of unsustainable runs using historical data from National Football League (NFL), National Basketball Association (NBA), National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball (MLB). The multiple equilibria model retains all of the features of the standard model of a professional sports league that is accepted quite universally by economists, yet it offers a much richer approach by including an exploration of the effects of revenues that are earned at the league level (television, apparel, naming rights, etc.) that are then shared by all of the member clubs, making this book unique and of great interest to scholars in a variety of fields in economics.

This book is designed for self study. The reader can apply the theoretical concepts directly within R by following the examples.

The main purpose of this book is to resolve deficiencies and limitations that currently exist when using Technical Analysis (TA). Particularly, TA is being used either by academics as an "economic test" of the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) or by practitioners as a main or supplementary tool for deriving trading signals. This book approaches TA in a systematic way utilizing all the available estimation theory and tests. This is achieved through the developing of novel rule-based pattern recognizers, and the implementation of statistical tests for assessing the importance of realized returns. More emphasis is given to technical patterns where subjectivity in their identification process is apparent. Our proposed methodology is based on the algorithmic and thus unbiased pattern recognition. The unified methodological framework presented in this book can serve as a benchmark for both future academic studies that test the null hypothesis of the weak-form EMH and for practitioners that want to embed TA within their trading/investment decision making processes.