With the economic problems facing Western economics during the last
decade, theories about an alleged forty-five to sixty years'
pulsation in economic life (the Kondratieff-Schumpeter cycle) have
experienced a remarkable renaissance. Based on a new econometric
test method, the author argues that long waves can be identified
not only in price series but also in the aggregate output of a
number of key industrialized countries. The author's own research
corroborates Schumpeter's hypothesis that, far from being caused by
a flash of genius, radical innovations occur in clusters,
interacting with economic fluctuations and social change.
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