A cool appraisal of China's place in the world, which discounts the
more fevered expectations of Chinese aggression. Nathan (Political
Science/Columbia Univ.) and Ross (Political Science/Boston Coll.),
while noting that China can be very aggressive (it has engaged in
conflicts with the US, Russia, Japan, India, Vietnam, South Korea,
and Taiwan in this century), believe that it is vulnerable and
aware of its vulnerability. Its weaknesses are both military - "by
far the weakest of the four great powers in Asia" - and economic,
with an economic strategy "that will succeed only through
intensified integration into the world economy." China has, in
effect, found itself having to catch a ride on the Asian tigers,
with all the usual dangers attached to such transportation. Prior
to the Nixon visit to Beijing in 1972, Chinese policymakers
reckoned that the economy had to grow 6 to 10 percent a year to
improve living standards enough to prevent economic and social
breakdown. This has meant that China, potentially one of the most
self-sufficient countries in the world, has become increasingly
dependent not just on world trade but on the attitude of
institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. This has led to
immense improvements in the nation's living standards but has come
at the cost of opening up the country to the very kinds of social
and cultural forces that topple repressive regimes. Despite the
substantial differences between the US and China - the trade
deficit, human rights, Taiwan - Nathan and Ross conclude that the
fundamental interests of the two countries "pull them together more
than they drive them apart." A thoughtful, dispassionate, and
persuasive look at a great power during a time of great challenge
and change. (Kirkus Reviews)
"A strong antidote to the growing sinophobia in the U.S."—Wall Street Journal
Many see China and the United States on the path to confrontation. The Chinese leadership violates human rights norms. It maintains a harsh rule in Tibet, spars aggressively with Taiwan, and is clamping down on Hong Kong. A rising power with enormous assets, China increasingly considers American interests an obstacle to its own.
But, the authors argue, the United States is the least of China's problems. Despite its sheer size, economic vitality, and drive to upgrade its military forces, China remains a vulnerable power, crowded on all sides by powerful rivals and potential foes. As it has throughout its history, China faces immense security challenges, and their sources are at and within China's own borders. China's foreign policy is calibrated to defend its territorial integrity against antagonists who are numerous, near, and strong.
The authors trace the implications of this central point for China's relations with the United States and the rest of the world.
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