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Quantifying Counterfactual Military History
Loot Price: R759
Discovery Miles 7 590
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Quantifying Counterfactual Military History
Series: ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society
Expected to ship within 9 - 15 working days
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Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history
is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These
may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed
under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful
or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and
appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and
crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized
alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the
modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this
question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using
simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim
that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the
envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical
analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis.
Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a
general audience who are interested in learning more about
statistical methods both in military history and for wider
applications. Key Features: Demonstrates how modern statistical
techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions.
Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern
scholars and historical actors. Combines historical narrative,
mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward
presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history.
Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity
and rigour of works of counterfactual history Written in a manner
accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or
Statistics.
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