Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking - Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise (Hardcover)

This book develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. It is the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers government intelligence assessments, diplomatic reporting and expert open sources, and how organisational leaders received these assessments. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. Drawing on insights and chapters provided by former senior officials, the book identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

General

Imprint:	Edinburgh University Press
Country of origin:	United Kingdom
Series:	Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare
Release date:	October 2022
Editors:	Christoph Meyer • Eva Michaels • Nikki Ikani • Aviva Guttman • Michael S. Goodman
Dimensions:	234 x 156 x 28mm (L x W x T)
Format:	Hardcover - Unsewn / adhesive bound
Pages:	256
ISBN-13:	978-1-399-50551-2
Categories:	Books > Social sciences > Politics & government > International relations > General
LSN:	1-399-50551-3
Barcode:	9781399505512

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