The Improbable War explains why conflict between the USA and China
cannot be ruled out. In 1914 war between the Great Powers was
considered unlikely, yet it happened. We learn only from history,
and popular though the First World War analogy is, the lessons we
draw from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is
the tendency to over-estimate human rationality. All major
conflicts of the past 300 years have been about the norms and rules
of the international system. In China and the US the world
confronts two 'exceptional' powers whose values differ markedly,
with China bidding to challenge the current order. The 'Thucydidean
Trap' -when a conservative status quo power confronts a rising new
one-may also play its part in precipitating hostilities. To avoid
stumbling into an avoidable war both Beijing and Washington need a
coherent strategy, which neither of them has. History also reveals
that war evolves continually. The next global conflict is likely to
be played out in cyberspace and outer space and like all previous
wars it will have devastating consequences. Such a war between the
United States and China may seem improbable, but it is all too
possible, which is why we need to discuss it now.
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