Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics.
It affects all important issues of governance and policy, in both
domestic and international contexts. Rather than treating the
uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an
original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a
scientifically-knowable phenomenon with well-defined principles and
substantive properties. Specific applications of this theory of
political uncertainty are demonstrated in diverse areas of
politics, examining such questions as when and how wars break out,
when and how governments collapse, and when and how political
cooperation emerges. The author shows how probability and
mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding such
complex and fundamental issues.
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