This monograph explores the impact that oil revenue had on the
national defense spending of five oil-exporting countries. Despite
periods of falling oil revenues, these countries typically did not
lower defense spending. In some cases, defense spending increased
sharply, or the rate of decrease was much lower than the drop in
oil revenues. This condition creates challenges for national
security professionals. If nations face falling oil revenues and
still have the will and ability to expand their military or
security capabilities, then they might do so through the sacrifice
of domestic spending or regional stability. Economic sanctions,
worldwide recession, or falling oil demand may not stop these
oil-exporting nations from purchasing weapons and creating large
security forces. Policies that attempt to limit oil revenues of
potential enemies alone may not be sufficient to inhibit them from
creating regional instability through expansion of their defense
capabilities. Hopes for reduced defense expenditures, by countries
like Iran, as a result of a drop in energy demand seem to be
diminished by these findings. A more complex picture emerges that
forces analysts and policymakers to search more broadly for options
to stem potential arms races that may be fueled by the riches of
oil-exporting countries.
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