To define future threat is, in a sense, an impossible task, yet it
is one that must be done. In this monograph, Dr. Colin S. Gray
explains that the only sources of empirical evidence accessible to
us are the past and the present. We cannot obtain understanding
about the future from the future. Dr. Gray draws noticeably upon
the understanding of strategic history obtainable from Thucydides'
great History of the Peloponnesian War. The monograph advises
prudence as the operating light for American definition of future
threat, and the author believes that there are historical parallels
between the time of Thucydides and our own that can help us avoid
much peril. The future must always be unpredictable to us in any
detail, but the many and potent continuities in history's great
stream of time can serve to alert us to what may well happen in
kind.
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