The possibility of achieving decisive results from short warning
attacks appears to have improved greatly with technological
advances. Indeed, strategic surprise offers both golden
opportunities and lethal dangers, so it attracts much attention in
today's world. In this monograph, Dr. Colin Gray takes a broad view
of strategic surprise, and relates it to the current military
transformation. He argues that the kind of strategic surprise to
which the United States is most at risk and which is most damaging
to our national security is the deep and pervasive connection
between war and politics. Although America is usually superior at
making war, it is far less superior in making peace out of war. Dr.
Gray concludes that the current military transformation shows no
plausible promise of helping to correct the long-standing U.S.
weakness in the proper use of forces as an instrument of policy.
This monograph was written under the Strategic Studies Institute's
External Research Associates Program (ERAP).
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