At this time it is impossible to know when, or the conditions under
which, North and South Korea might be reunified. This exploratory
report, though, analyzes the current demographic characteristics of
the two countries and sets out potential scenarios given conditions
that might exist during and following reunification. The South
Korean government clearly prefers that an economic integration
precede political integration; a complete collapse of the North
Korean government is the least desired outcome. The demographic
outlook for a unified peninsula will be closely tied with the pace
and form of political and economic integration. For the purpose of
this paper, it is assumed that the process will be gradual and
peaceful, as desired by the South Korean government and the
international community--what Holger Wolf has termed the
"gradualist scenario." While analysis to date has examined
military, economic, and geopolitical dimensions of the
reunification process and end state, it is also critical for
planners and policymakers to understand the current and potential
demographic dynamics of the peninsula.
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