Iraqi Scud missile attacks during the Persian Gulf War dramatized
U.S. vulnerability to theater ballistic missiles. In this report,
the authors describe a methodology for allocating resources among
various facets of missile defense. Their model takes into account
the number of attacking objects, the requirement that no missiles
get through, the number of layers of defense, the probability of
kill by the interceptors in each layer, other operational
parameters, and cost considerations. In addition, they examine the
effects of critical uncertainties. The model indicates the benefits
of architectures that rely on multiple layers of defense, the high
costs of these defenses, and the high leverage in engaging
attacking objects before launch or early in their flight.
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