Central bank intervention in foreign currency markets is widely
regarded as ineffective by economists, policy makers and
financiers, yet many central banks continue to enter the market in
periods of turbulence. In Foreign Exchange Intervention, Geert
Almekinders explains why central banks continue to carry out
foreign exchange interventions despite their poor track
record.Using confidential daily intervention data from the
Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve for the period 1985 to 1990, the
author shows how both banks were unable, despite repeated attempts,
to reverse unwanted currency movements successfully. Dr Almekinders
develops a positive theory of intervention - drawing on game theory
- to show how central banks which lack political independence are
sometimes forced to engage in surprise interventions which are
rendered ineffective by rational speculators who anticipate their
moves. The author also makes extensive use of modern statistical
models of exchange rates to examine the decision making process of
central banks. The book includes comprehensive surveys of existing
theoretical and empirical investigations of foreign exchange
intervention. Foreign Exchange Intervention will be welcomed by
academic researchers and students, as well as economists and
analysts in the financial sector, for its comprehensive surveys of
previous scholarship, the use of hitherto unavailable data from the
Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve, and the policy conclusions
which derive from the book's theoretical and empirical insights.
General
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