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Economic Impacts of Foreign-Source Animal Disease (Paperback, New)
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Economic Impacts of Foreign-Source Animal Disease (Paperback, New)
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This book presents a modelling framework in which epidemiological
model results are integrated with an economic model of the U.S.
agricultural sector to enable estimation of the economic impacts of
outbreaks of foreign-source livestock diseases. To demonstrate the
model, the study assessed results of a hypothetical outbreak of
foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The modelling framework includes
effects of the FMD episode on all major agricultural products and
assesses these effects on aggregate supply, demand, and trade over
16 quarters. Model results show a potential for large trade-related
losses for beef, beef cattle, hogs, and pork, though relatively few
animals are destroyed. This model is more comprehensive than
previous work because it has components for modelling both economic
effects and disease-spread effects from an outbreak, for which the
results can be integrated. It also assesses the effects of a
disease outbreak on major agricultural sectors- livestock and
crops- along vertical market chains, from production to
consumption. Thirdly, it projects the impact of the disease
outbreak over 20 calendar quarters, rather than for just one year.
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