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War in the Modern Great Power System - 1495-1975 (Paperback)
Loot Price: R655
Discovery Miles 6 550
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War in the Modern Great Power System - 1495-1975 (Paperback)
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The apparently accelerating arms race between the United States and
the Soviet Union and the precarious political conditions existing
in many parts of the world have given rise to new anxiety about the
possibility of military confrontation between the superpowers.
Despite the fateful nature of the risk, we have little knowledge,
as Jack S. Levy has pointed out, "of the conditions, processes, and
events which might combine to generate such a calamity." No
empirically confirmed theory of the causes of war exists, and the
hypotheses -- often contradictory -- that have been proposed remain
untested. As a step toward the formulation of a theory of the
causes of war that can be tested against historical experience,
Levy has developed a unique data base that will serve as an
invaluable resource for students of international conflict in
coming years. War in the Modern Great Power System provides a
much-needed perspective on the major wars of the past. In this
thorough and systematic study, Levy carefully defines the Great
Power concept and identifies the Great Powers and their
international wars since the late fifteenth century. The resulting
compilation of war data is unique because of its five-century span
and its focus on a well-defined set of Great Powers. Turning to a
quantitative analysis of the characteristics, patterns, and trends
in war, Levy demonstrates that although wars between the Great
Powers have become increasingly serious in every respect but
duration over the last five hundred years, their frequency has
diminished. He rejects the popular view that the twentieth century
has been the most warlike on record, and he demonstrates that it
instead constitutes a return to the historical norm after the
exceptionally peaceful nineteenth century. Applying his data to the
question whether war is "contagious," he finds that the likelihood
of war is indeed highest when another war is under way, but that
this contagious effect disappears after the first war is over.
Contrary to the popular "war-weariness" theory, he finds no
evidence that war generates an aversion to subsequent war. This
study, extending the scientific analysis of war back over five
centuries of international history, constitutes a major
contribution to our knowledge of international conflict.
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