How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's
discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods
in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get
at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The
Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch
inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed
reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants
counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. The Science of
Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with
uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human
understanding of risk.
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