War and Chance - Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics (Hardcover)

Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman explains how avoiding the challenge of assessing uncertainty undermines foreign policy analysis and decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he shows that foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international affairs, and shows that placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.

General

Imprint:	Oxford UniversityPress
Country of origin:	United States
Series:	Bridging the Gap
Release date:	June 2019
Authors:	Jeffrey A. Friedman (Assistant Professor of Political Science)
Dimensions:	243 x 165 x 25mm (L x W x T)
Format:	Hardcover - Cloth over boards
Pages:	248
ISBN-13:	978-0-19-093802-4
Categories:	Books > Social sciences > Politics & government > International relations > Espionage & secret services Books > Social sciences > Politics & government > International relations > Embargos & sanctions Books > Social sciences > Warfare & defence > Defence strategy, planning & research > General
LSN:	0-19-093802-1
Barcode:	9780190938024

Is the information for this product incomplete, wrong or inappropriate? Let us know about it.

Does this product have an incorrect or missing image? Send us a new image.

Is this product missing categories? Add more categories.

Review This Product

No reviews yet - be the first to create one!