Climate change has been a key factor in the rise and fall of
societies and states from prehistory to the recent fighting in the
Sudanese state of Darfur. It drives instability, conflict and
collapse, but also expansion and reorganisation. The ways cultures
have met the climate challenge provide lessons for how the modern
world can handle the new security threats posed by unprecedented
global warming. Combining historical precedents with current
thinking on state stability, internal conflict and state failure
suggests that overcoming cultural, social, political and economic
barriers to successful adaptation to a changing climate is the most
important factor in avoiding instability in a warming world. The
countries which will face increased risk are not necessarily the
most fragile, nor those which will suffer the greatest physical
effects of climate change. The global security threat posed by
fragile and failing states is well known. It is in the interest of
the world's more affluent countries to take measures both to reduce
the degree of global warming and climate change and to cushion the
impact in those parts of the world where climate change will
increase that threat. Neither course of action will be cheap, but
inaction will be costlier. Providing the right kind of assistance
to the people and places it is most needed is one way of reducing
the cost, and understanding how and why different societies respond
to climate change is one way of making that possible.
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