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Books > Business & Economics > Economics
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Uncontrolled - The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society (Hardcover, New)
Loot Price: R1,107
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Uncontrolled - The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society (Hardcover, New)
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How do we know which social and economic policies work, which
should be continued, and which should be changed? Jim Manzi argues
that throughout history, various methods have been attempted,except
for controlled experimentation. Experiments provide the feedback
loop that allows us, in certain limited ways, to identify error in
our beliefs as a first step to correcting them. Over the course of
the first half of the twentieth century, scientists invented a
methodology for executing controlled experiments to evaluate
certain kinds of proposed social interventions. This technique goes
by many names in different contexts (randomized control trials,
randomized field experiments, clinical trials, etc.). Over the past
ten to twenty years this has been increasingly deployed in a wide
variety of contexts, but it remains the red-haired step child of
modern social science. This is starting to change, and this change
should be encouraged and accelerated, even though the staggering
complexity of human society creates severe limits to what social
science could be realistically expected to achieve. Randomized
trials have shown, for example, that work requirements for welfare
recipients have succeeded like nothing else in encouraging
employment, that charter school vouchers have been successful in
increasing educational attainment for underprivileged children, and
that community policing has worked to reduce crime, but also that
programs like Head Start and Job Corps, which might be politically
attractive, fail to attain their intended objectives. Business
leaders can also use experiments to test decisions in a controlled,
low-risk environment before investing precious resources in
large-scale changes - the philosophy behind Manzi's own successful
software company. In a powerful and masterfully-argued book, Manzi
shows us how the methods of science can be applied to social and
economic policy in order to ensure progress and prosperity.
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