Close analysis of how non-state actors adapt to state collapse is
critical for effective strategies of peace building, development,
and counter-terrorism in those crises. In Somalia, the nature of
state collapse has changed significantly since 1995. Armed conflict
is more localized; lawlessness is better contained by local
authorities; and warlords have been weakened by an emerging
commercial elite whose interests lie in stability, not plunder.
Risk-aversion drives political behaviour and partially explains the
reluctance of local elites to support a revived central government.
Somalia has to date not been particularly attractive as a safe
haven for terrorists due to the risk of betrayal and extortion
foreigners face there. Instead, terrorist networks have used
Somalia principally as a short-term transshipment site into Kenya.
Efforts to revive a central state in Somalia risk creating a "paper
state" - one which lacks a capacity to govern and is prone to
police corruption, providing an environment in which terrorist
networks thrive.
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