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How to Expect the Unexpected - The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To (Paperback)
Loot Price: R376
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How to Expect the Unexpected - The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To (Paperback)
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List price R470
Loot Price R376
Discovery Miles 3 760
You Save R94 (20%)
Expected to ship within 5 - 10 working days
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Total price: R396
Discovery Miles: 3 960
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· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your
surname is Ball? · How can you be one hundred per cent sure you
will win a bet? · Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount
Vesuvius was erupting? · How do you prevent a nuclear war? Ever
since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make
predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal
level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I
hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to
predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader
society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist
attacks?). For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From
religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to
economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our
job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the
foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us
human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences
about the world around us. And that can have disastrous
consequences. How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and
why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give
you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
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