Today's North Korean regime embodies elements of both communism and
Confucian dynasty, is sovereign with respect to only part of the
divided Korean nation, is vulnerable to pressure from external
powers, and confronts incipient internal demands for change,
yielding an unusually broad set of possible transition paths and
successor regimes. Such paths range from maintenance of the status
quo to evolution, probably toward a more conventional form of
military authoritarianism, to revolutionary upheaval, the latter in
all likelihood implying the North's collapse and its absorption
into the rival Southern state. This policy analysis quantitatively
analyzes the probability of regime change and examines the
character of possible successor regimes and the implications of
these profoundly different trajectories for South Korea.
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