This study documents the effects of the 2008 09 global financial
crisis on poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In
doing so, it describes and decomposes the effects of the crisis on
poverty using data from comparable household budget surveys for
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic,
Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay, and
labor force surveys for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. The study also provides
macro-micro modeling of crisis and no-crisis scenarios for Mexico
and Brazil, as well as the big picture and program-specific details
of the social protection policy responses for these countries and
more. Among the findings are the following. First, the effects of
the global financial crisis on those living in poverty were not
trivial: more than 3 million people fell into or remained mired in
poverty in 2009 as a result of the crisis. Of these, 2.5 million
were Mexican. Second, the changes in poverty were driven by changes
in labor incomes caused by a variable combination of changes in
employment rates and real wages. Third, the macro-micro modeling
revealed different adjustment mechanisms but similar final
incidence results for Brazil and Mexico. The results were
regressive overall, with the middle of the income distribution hit
even a bit more than the poor. According to the descriptive results
from the larger set of countries, changes in inequality accounted
for a tenth to a third of changes in poverty. Fourth, countries
were quite active in their social protection policy responses,
largely taking advantage of programs built in precrisis years.
Social transfers partially offset the lower labor earnings of the
poor, although income protection for the unemployed was weak.
Finally, overall the policy messages are that good policy helps
attenuate the links between a global crisis and poverty in the LAC
countries, and many of the important things need to be done ex ante
such as dealing with the macro fundamentals and building social
protection programs."
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