This paper explains how Iran developed its nuclear programme to the
point where it threatens to achieve a weapons capability within a
short time frame, and analyses Western policy responses aimed at
forestalling that capability. Key questions are addressed: will the
world have to accept an Iranian uranium-enrichment programme, and
does having a weapons capability mean having the Bomb? For nearly
two decades, Western strategy on the Iran nuclear issue emphasised
denial of supply. Since 2002, there has also been a demand-side
dimension to the strategy, aimed at changing Iran's cost-benefit
calculations through inducements and pressure. But the failure of
these policies to prevent Iran from coming close to achieving a
nuclear-weapons capability has promoted suggestions for fallback
strategies that would grant legitimacy to uranium enrichment in
Iran in exchange for intrusive inspections and constraints on the
programme. The paper assesses these 'second-best' options in terms
of their feasibility and their impact on the proliferation risks of
diversion of nuclear material and knowledge, clandestine
development and NPT break-out, and the risk of stimulating a
proliferation cascade in the Middle East and beyond. It concludes
that the risks are still best minimised by reinforcing the binary
choice presented to Iran of cooperation or isolation, and
strengthening denial of supply.
General
| Imprint: |
Routledge
|
| Country of origin: |
United Kingdom |
| Series: |
Adelphi series |
| Release date: |
November 2008 |
| First published: |
2008 |
| Authors: |
Mark Fitzpatrick
|
| Dimensions: |
234 x 156 x 7mm (L x W x T) |
| Format: |
Paperback
|
| Pages: |
100 |
| ISBN-13: |
978-0-415-46654-7 |
| Categories: |
Books >
Social sciences >
Warfare & defence >
General
Promotions
|
| LSN: |
0-415-46654-7 |
| Barcode: |
9780415466547 |
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