Democratic Equilibrium: The Supply and Demand of Democracy defines
a model for political change, change that results in either an
increase or decrease in democracy. The book presents a model that
builds upon the existing literature to bridge several major gaps in
political change theory. This book provides a holistic supply and
demand model that draws upon works from political science,
economics, and history. The work conducts an econometric test of
the model and validates the results with field research cases from
Mexico, the Philippines, and Senegal. The econometric chapter is a
rare quantitative analysis of the effects of violence and
development upon democracy. This topic is central to contemporary
academic and policy debates about how to create democracies,
consolidate democracies, achieve development and improve security,
especially within developing countries. This topic is especially
timely as the Arab Spring represents a unique opportunity and
challenge for democratic change across the Middle East and North
Africa. Recent events in Tunisia and Egypt demonstrate that
democracy studies remain just as relevant today as they were twenty
years ago. The findings indicate that common structural
explanations of democracy are incomplete since the structural
relationships are not stable or constant over time. Instead,
democratic change (or lack thereof) can be explained using a supply
and demand model. Key actors (including the military, political
parties, NGOs, the ruling regime, and civil society) are the
suppliers and consumers that determine a country's resulting level
of democracy. However, stating that actors are important is a major
over-simplification. Each key actor builds preferences based upon a
variety of factors, most importantly: security, income, and the
adoption of democratic norms. It is this key dynamic that explains
why insurgency, poverty, and under-development do not have a
linearly negative effect on democracy. Instead, these factors have
a centripetal effect on political development, pulling a country's
government towards an intermediate state of political transition in
which regimes stagnate in a partially democratic, partially
autocratic regime type. Conversely, the model also explains why
high income, democratic norms, and security do not necessarily lead
to democratization in all cases.
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