The rise of China as a great power is one of the most important
developments in the twenty-first century. But despite dramatic
economic progress, China's prospects remain uncertain. In a book
sure to provoke debate, Minxin Pei examines the sustainability of
the Chinese Communist Party's reform strategy--pursuing pro-market
economic policies under one-party rule.
Pei casts doubt on three central explanations for why China's
strategy works: sustained economic development will lead to
political liberalization and democratization; gradualist economic
transition is a strategy superior to the "shock therapy" prescribed
for the former Soviet Union; and a neo-authoritarian developmental
state is essential to economic take-off. Pei argues that because
the Communist Party must retain significant economic control to
ensure its political survival, gradualism will ultimately fail.
The lack of democratic reforms in China has led to pervasive
corruption and a breakdown in political accountability. What has
emerged is a decentralized predatory state in which local party
bosses have effectively privatized the state's authority. Collusive
corruption is widespread and governance is deteriorating. Instead
of evolving toward a full market economy, China is trapped in
partial economic and political reforms.
Combining powerful insights with empirical research, "China's
Trapped Transition" offers a provocative assessment of China's
future as a great power.
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