"Decades go by and nothing happens; then weeks go by and decades
happen." This apt saying encapsulates the dramatic convulsions
taking place across the Arab world that first erupted in 2011 in
Tunisia and which rapidly spread to other countries. These events
have affected the lives of ordinary citizens in many more ways than
had been intended when the 'Arab Spring' broke out, with the
endgame still not very clear as demonstrated in countries like
Egypt, Syria and Libya.
By comparison, with some exceptions, the six countries
comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council have been relatively
unaffected by the general turbulence and uncertainties lapping
around them. However, geopolitical shifts involving global
superpower rivalries, combined with revolutionary breakthroughs in
the non-conventional hydrocarbon energy sector are threatening to
challenge the importance of the Arabian Gulf as the world's leading
suppliers of energy, putting their economies under fiscal stress.
The author examines such challenges by:
Providing the first in-depth statistical analytical assessment
of the GCC countries using monthly data over the period 2001 -2013
for the three risk categories- economic, financial and political
risks- and their sub -components so as to enable policymakers
enhance components with low risk, while addressing components with
perceived higher risk,
Assessing FDI and capital inflows and outflows before and after
the "Arab Spring," and how to encourage FDI inflows,
Inter -Arab and GCC trade and synergies in power transmission,
transportation links and establishing new hubs of centers of
manufacturing excellence,
Exploring private sector-led growth models to reduce forecasted
unemployment.
Being complacent is not an option for the GCC. The aim of the
book is that having a better understanding of each of the GCC
countries' individual risk parameters will enable the GCC meet
future challenges and reduce the chances of a negative 'Arab
Spring' occurring in the region.
Mohamed Ramady is a Visiting Associate Professor at the Department
of Finance and Economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and
Minerals. His main research interests are the economics of the
Middle East and Saudi Arabia in particular, as well as money and
banking He also held senior positions with international financial
institutions in the Arabian Gulf and Europe."
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