Timely and pathbreaking, "Securing the Peace" is the first book
to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations,
including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments
and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes
of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a
general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party
guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that
thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in
establishing peace over the long term.
Much of the thinking in this area has centered on third parties
presiding over the maintenance of negotiated settlements, but the
problem with this focus is that fewer than a quarter of recent
civil wars have ended this way. Furthermore, these settlements have
been precarious, often resulting in a recurrence of war. Toft finds
that military victory, especially victory by rebels, lends itself
to a more durable peace. She argues for the importance of the
security sector--the police and military--and explains that
victories are more stable when governments can maintain order. Toft
presents statistical evaluations and in-depth case studies that
include El Salvador, Sudan, and Uganda to reveal that where the
security sector remains robust, stability and democracy are likely
to follow.
An original and thoughtful reassessment of civil war
terminations, "Securing the Peace" will interest all those
concerned about resolving our world's most pressing conflicts.
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