Over the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest
global surplus economy; indeed by 2007-08 the size of its surplus
relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large
trading economy. This development is especially surprising since in
the first twenty-five years of economic reform China's trade and
current account surpluses were quite small by East Asian standards,
averaging less than 2 percent of GDP.This study provides a
comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the
Chinese authorities in light of the still undervalued exchange
rate, the large build-up of foreign exchange reserves, and more
recently the sharp decline in economic growth. It analyzes the
implications of China's exchange-rate policy for the effectiveness
of monetary policy, the transition to a commercially oriented
banking system, the evolving structure of output and demand, and
the risk of protectionism abroad. The policy-options portion of the
study takes account of the significant real effective appreciation
of the renminbi over the past fifteen months and will contrast the
pros and cons of a "stay-the-course" policy with that of a bolder,
"three-stage" approach that would seek to maintain recent progress
and to reduce even further the undervaluation of the renminbi.
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