One of the most urgent challenges in African economic
development is to devise a strategy for improving statistical
capacity. Reliable statistics, including estimates of economic
growth rates and per-capita income, are basic to the operation of
governments in developing countries and vital to nongovernmental
organizations and other entities that provide financial aid to
them. Rich countries and international financial institutions such
as the World Bank allocate their development resources on the basis
of such data. The paucity of accurate statistics is not merely a
technical problem; it has a massive impact on the welfare of
citizens in developing countries.
Where do these statistics originate? How accurate are they? Poor
Numbers is the first analysis of the production and use of African
economic development statistics. Morten Jerven's research shows how
the statistical capacities of sub-Saharan African economies have
fallen into disarray. The numbers substantially misstate the actual
state of affairs. As a result, scarce resources are misapplied.
Development policy does not deliver the benefits expected.
Policymakers' attempts to improve the lot of the citizenry are
frustrated. Donors have no accurate sense of the impact of the aid
they supply. Jerven's findings from sub-Saharan Africa have
far-reaching implications for aid and development policy. As Jerven
notes, the current catchphrase in the development community is
"evidence-based policy," and scholars are applying increasingly
sophisticated econometric methods but no statistical techniques can
substitute for partial and unreliable data."
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