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Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance - Proceedings of a Workshop (Paperback)
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Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance - Proceedings of a Workshop (Paperback)
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The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies
of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a 2-day virtual
workshop on December 17 and 21, 2021, to explore insights from
world-class experts and technologists familiar with the extensive
range of issues associated with anticipating rare events?those
characterized by a very low probability of occurring?of major
significance. Over the course of the 2-day workshop, the speakers
discussed analytical methods, computational advances, data sources,
and risk assessment approaches for anticipating rare events,
including natural disasters, pandemics, anthropogenic threats, and
widespread technological change. This proceedings is a factual
summary of the presentations and discussion of the workshop. Table
of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction and Overview 2 Mathematical
Foundations for Anticipating Rare Events 3 Detection, Indications,
and Warnings 4 Planning, Forecasting, and Intelligence Preparation
5 Fireside Chat - Using Artificial Intelligence to Predict the
Occurrence of Sepsis 6 Fireside Chat - Rare Events and Insurance 7
Multisource Information Fusion, Situation Assessment, and Course of
Action Selection 8 Active Prevention and Deterrence 9 Concluding
Remarks Appendixes Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B:
Workshop Agenda Appendix C: Planning Committee Biographies Appendix
D: Speaker Biographies
General
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