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Seizing Power - The Strategic Logic of Military Coups (Hardcover)
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Seizing Power - The Strategic Logic of Military Coups (Hardcover)
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While coups drive a majority of regime changes and are responsible
for the overthrow of many democratic governments, there has been
very little empirical work on the subject. Seizing Power develops a
new theory of coup dynamics and outcomes, drawing on 300 hours of
interviews with coup participants and an original dataset of 471
coup attempts worldwide from 1950 to 2000. Naunihal Singh delivers
a concise and empirical evaluation, arguing that understanding the
dynamics of military factions is essential to predicting the
success or failure of coups. Singh draws on an aspect of game
theory known as a coordination game to explain coup dynamics. He
finds a strong correlation between successful coups and the ability
of military actors to project control and the inevitability of
success. Examining Ghana's multiple coups and the 1991 coup attempt
in the USSR, Singh shows how military actors project an image of
impending victory that is often more powerful than the reality on
the ground. In addition, Singh also identifies three distinct types
of coup dynamics, each with a different probability of success,
based on where within the organization each coup originated: coups
from top military officers, coups from the middle ranks, and
mutinous coups from low-level soldiers.
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