What beliefs are, what they do for us, how we come to hold them,
and how to evaluate them. Our beliefs constitute a large part of
our knowledge of the world. We have beliefs about objects, about
culture, about the past, and about the future. We have beliefs
about other people, and we believe that they have beliefs as well.
We use beliefs to predict, to explain, to create, to console, to
entertain. Some of our beliefs we call theories, and we are
extraordinarily creative at constructing them. Theories of quantum
mechanics, evolution, and relativity are examples. But so are
theories about astrology, alien abduction, guardian angels, and
reincarnation. All are products (with varying degrees of
credibility) of fertile minds trying to find explanations for
observed phenomena. In this book, Nils Nilsson examines beliefs:
what they do for us, how we come to hold them, and how to evaluate
them. We should evaluate our beliefs carefully, Nilsson points out,
because they influence so many of our actions and decisions. Some
of our beliefs are more strongly held than others, but all should
be considered tentative and changeable. Nilsson shows that beliefs
can be quantified by probability, and he describes networks of
beliefs in which the probabilities of some beliefs affect the
probabilities of others. He argues that we can evaluate our beliefs
by adapting some of the practices of the scientific method and by
consulting expert opinion. And he warns us about "belief
traps"-holding onto beliefs that wouldn't survive critical
evaluation. The best way to escape belief traps, he writes, is to
expose our beliefs to the reasoned criticism of others.
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