The principal assignment given to the Research and Development
Working Group was to identify the technical advances in the
forthcoming decade and to assess the expected impact of these on
forensic DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) analysis. Progress in forensic
analysis was slow until recently, but since 1985 more powerful
techniques have increased explosively. The first useful marker
system, the ABO blood groups, was discovered in 1900. The second,
the MN groups, came a quarter century later. By the 1960s, there
were 17 blood group systems known, but not all were useful for
forensics, and in the 1970s a few serum proteins and enzymes were
added. By the 1980s, some 100 protein polymorphisms were known but
most were not generally useful for forensics. The year 1985 brought
a major breakthrough. VNTRs (variable number of tandem repeats)
showed much greater variability among people than previous systems
and immediately began to be used for forensic studies. They are
still used, but are rapidly being replaced by STRs (short tandem
repeats). We can also expect improvements in collection and
purification techniques. Automation will make the process more
efficient and rapid, and we expect interpretative software for
analysis of complex problems, such as mixtures. There also is
progress toward miniaturization, using a combination of chip
technology and molecular genetics. Portable, handheld systems are
now working in laboratory experiments; how soon these will be
available for routine use is not clear. We also expect an
increasing amount of re-examination of cases in which the
conviction was based on evidence other than DNA. Greater automation
and higher throughput approaches will help reduce the backlog.
Formats that can analyze multiple STR loci in miniaturized, mobile
instruments are promised and should be available by this time. We
also expect improved sampling and storage techniques. Research in
the human genome and clinical research will produce many more
markers, some of which will be used to supplement the existing
procedures. We also expect integration of computers and internet
with analytical techniques to permit direct transmission of test
data between laboratories. There may be some transition to new
technologies, mainly to supplement the standard STRs. SNPs will be
widely used in medical and agricultural research, so there will be
many opportunities to carry these over for forensic purposes.
Within 10 years we expect portable, miniaturized instrumentation
that will provide analysis at the crime scene with computer-linked
remote analysis. Although this report looks to the future, we
emphasize that current state-of-the-art DNA typing is such that the
technology and statistical methods are accurate and reproducible.
STRs have proved to be very satisfactory for forensic use and are
being rapidly adopted by forensic laboratories. The difficulty and
expense of changing well-established and reliable procedures will
inhibit changes to other systems. For this reason, we believe that
STRs will be the predominant procedure during the next decade.
Methods of automation, increasing the speed and output and
reliability of STR methods, will continue. In particular we expect
that portable, miniature chips will make possible the analysis of
DNA directly at the crime scene. Techniques for handling minute
amounts of DNA or DNA that is badly degraded will become much
better. In particular, mitochondrial DNA will probably play an
increasing role in such difficult cases. Databases of DNA profiles
of convicted felons will be extensive and coordinated throughout
the States. International comparisons will be feasible and
increasingly common. In the future, it is likely that an increasing
number of suspects will be identified by database searches. The
statistical interpretation is difficult, particularly if future
databases include representatives of the population at large rather
than convicted felons.
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